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AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#101

Post by nativeit »

ReflectedImage wrote: post #73

Well assuming it's successful, there will be a large number of companies who's value will be reassessed as the token cost to replicate and run the business. Multi-million dollar companies will be reduced into multi thousand dollar companies. The CEOs will be replaced with teenagers in garages with their parent's credit cards. If it stalls, then China will undercut the whole AI market with cheap electricity and crash…

I can’t help but notice the “if it stalls” still assumes AI is successful, only that China beats the US. What if AI in general can’t do any of the things you mention?

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#102

Post by rootusrootus »

byzantinegene wrote: post #62
whateverboat wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will find out how much of work is given to people just so that there's a person/company associated with a technical decision. I personally think this might be quite high.

we already know this, the term bullshit jobs exist for this reason.

Exactly. I build automation tools for my company which have improved productivity quite a lot and put precisely zero people out of a job. Partly we find other things for them to spend time on, and partly it just turns out that we like to have humans doing jobs.

It is cliche at this point that HN is the place you go to hear software developers reduce all of the world's problems into simple algorithmic arguments which for some reason never actually solve anything. Not shocked that we are similarly incapable of understanding that algorithmically replacing a software developer isn't easy just because we think we know what the job is.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#103

Post by rootusrootus »

felix-the-cat wrote: post #51
byzantinegene wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you mentioned a very good point about scalability. we're seeing alot of productivity gains, but only from SWEs, which are but a very small segment of the global economy. all other economic use cases require thorough last-mile development and iteration that is not too different with current automation tools.

A friend who is a psychologist was telling me he thinks in another year or two insurance companies will insist people see an AI therapist first before being willing to pay for a real person.

LOL, the same AI that has landed companies in court defending themselves against wrongful death lawsuits for helping someone convince themselves suicide is the right answer, and even encouraging them? That AI? I am unclear that any insurance company is going to want a piece of that action anytime soon.

What you've just told me is that psychologists, just like SWEs, are prone to thinking they know how business works but in fact know fuck all.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#105

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

rayiner wrote: post #85
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to wait 20 years for the returns to society. Public education was enormously successful when it was introduced in the 19th century. There's just no profit in waiting for second order effects to kick in.

Diminishing returns. Per-student education spending has been going up since 1990 except a dip during the 2008 recession. Adjusting for inflations it’s now double what it was 30 years ago.

The population of students is shrinking and there is (unnecessarily) growing overhead that has to be paid for.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#106

Post by rayiner »

nativeit wrote: post #94
rayiner wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization Even excluding military spending, US governments spend $2 trillion every 10 weeks.

How? The annual federal budget is roughly $7T.

You have to include state and local spending too. We’re at 40% of GDP which works out to almost $13 trillion: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CFpQ. Subtract $1 trillion in defense, and we’re spending about $1 trillion a month on government.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#107

Post by rayiner »

ElProlactin wrote: post #99
rayiner wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization Even excluding military spending, US governments spend $2 trillion every 10 weeks.

Just to be clear: you're talking about federal and state non-military spending. And about 10% of this is interest. So over the course of a year, the US is paying about $1.25 trillion in interest at the federal and state level.

Why wouldn’t you include state spending? That’s the level of government primarily responsible for infrastructure and education.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#108

Post by rayiner »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #105
rayiner wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diminishing returns. Per-student education spending has been going up since 1990 except a dip during the 2008 recession. Adjusting for inflations it’s now double what it was 30 years ago.

The population of students is shrinking and there is (unnecessarily) growing overhead that has to be paid for.

The people in charge of the schools don’t seem to think it’s unnecessary overhead?

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#109

Post by dataviz1000 »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #78
christiangenco wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding of injecting money in education is that it's proven to be extremely ineffective at improving outcomes. Schools just hire more administrators and build nicer gyms.

You have to wait 20 years for the returns to society. Public education was enormously successful when it was introduced in the 19th century. There's just no profit in waiting for second order effects to kick in.

So was Rural Free Delivery. Farmers being able to communicate was a massive boon. There is a channel for farmers called RFD tv. They completely scrubbed the free provided by the government part after private equity bought the tv channel targeting farmers. Then they got Imus in the Morning so farmers listed to Imus, Rush, Hannity, and orielly forgetting the government helps them.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#110

Post by raincole »

nativeit wrote: post #94
rayiner wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization Even excluding military spending, US governments spend $2 trillion every 10 weeks.

How? The annual federal budget is roughly $7T.

> governments

Plural implies they count more than the federal government.

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