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AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

telegraph.co.uk

31–40 of 228 posts

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#31

Surely this time we'll learn our lesson and disempower the parasites that create these situations, right? Right guys?

>"I have a feeling in a few years people are going to be doing what they always do when the economy tanks. They will be blaming immigrants and poor people." -Mark Baum, The Big Short

The scapegoats for this plan never change and have never changed in human history.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#32
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So good at it that I’m right now in the process of building instead of buying. Here’s how that plays out in the economy: - My company spent $50 on my tokens to build this internal tool - Anthropic spent $XXX to deliver those tokens to me. - The company I was going to buy the tool from lost $XX,XXX per year that I would have paid them. I dunno, kind of sounds like the economy just got smaller. I could usually accept t…

Are you putting the $XX,XXX-50 under your mattress or investing it in something else productive?

This is the right question.

Every company has a list of >WACC IRR projects that it can spend saved money on. If not, it’s a cash cow company that wasn’t growing in the first place and will allow shareholders to use the saved cash for other economically expanding projects.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#33
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you putting the $XX,XXX-50 under your mattress or investing it in something else productive?

Unless that money is being spent on more tokens, it'll probably be used for stock buybacks.

Which enrich existing shareholders who can use that capital to invest in other economically expanding projects.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extract rents? I don’t think you’re using the term rent correctly here.

No, it's correct. The best (short-term) case is that they become eternal parasites. If they fail to do that, they'll bring a lot down with them when they fall.

>The best (short-term) case is that they become eternal parasites.

Producing a product that delivers value and people are willing to pay for makes you a "parasite"? Sure, it might cause massive disruptions to the labor market, but that's mostly orthogonal to whether it's a "parasite" or not. Mechanized farming has almost wiped out agricultural employment (compared to pre-industrial levels), but that doesn't make tractor manufacturers or fertilizer companies "parasites"

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#36
Wishful thinking has it that we rally our representatives to let OpenAI and consorts rot. The last thing people should do is bail these delusional people out. Let them have it worse then WeWorks and let’s see if their self crowned AGI can help them out of their misery

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#37

Surely this time we'll learn our lesson and disempower the parasites that create these situations, right? Right guys?

Not this time. This time, we'll bail out them out because they are too big to fail and they need the money and assets. Next time we'll definitely get them. Pinky promise.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#38

Meanwhile AI has gotten so good it can just about one shot a SaaS app. I’m not worried about it…

So good at it that I’m right now in the process of building instead of buying. Here’s how that plays out in the economy: - My company spent $50 on my tokens to build this internal tool - Anthropic spent $XXX to deliver those tokens to me. - The company I was going to buy the tool from lost $XX,XXX per year that I would have paid them. I dunno, kind of sounds like the economy just got smaller. I could usually accept t…

And if the company didn't need $XX,XXX*0.90 (or more) that you would have paid them to further develop their product and stay in business? If that other company now paid their own $50 in tokens? Maybe the overall flow of money in the economy went from $XX,XXX (you) + $XX,XXX (them) + $(not much, AI didn't exist yet) equals or is greater to $50 + $50 + ($xbillions in AI)? Dunno.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#40
post #12

Meanwhile AI has gotten so good it can just about one shot a SaaS app. I’m not worried about it…

Yeah but the investments arent aiming for churning out SaaS apps. Its to automate large swathes of intellectual labour. Of which only SWE has been cracked yet. There is a question mark as to if the others will crack. If they arent then these investments will collapse from speculation down to reality. That possibility is what is being discussed here As to whether that will happen, I think that risk is real. Because cl…

There’s argument to be made that SWE hasn’t been cracked either. The latest models are great at coding medium sized applications, but figuring out the requirements and consolidation of domain knowledge is something still lacking
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