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The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

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Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#61

Post by rdtsc »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #36
delta_p_delta_x wrote: post #32

I don't understand the surprise in this article. This particular story is absolutely nothing new—the Germans and Japanese did it first to the US car market, which is inefficient, stuck in a bygone era, and propped up by government protectionism. Nearly all* American cars have been backwards in all metrics since about the 1970s. In general, if you wanted... Reliability: Japanese. Value: Korean, French, Japanese. Perfo…

US only loves free market if they're the winners.

Which free-market-loving country doesn't?

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#62

Post by [deleted] »

delta_p_delta_x wrote: post #32

I don't understand the surprise in this article. This particular story is absolutely nothing new—the Germans and Japanese did it first to the US car market, which is inefficient, stuck in a bygone era, and propped up by government protectionism. Nearly all* American cars have been backwards in all metrics since about the 1970s. In general, if you wanted... Reliability: Japanese. Value: Korean, French, Japanese. Perfo…

[deleted]

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#63

Post by jatora »

rgbrenner wrote: post #34

US bans are based on the incorrect idea that we have control over AI. But the ban only reduces the most advanced model available from US companies. Models from other countries continue development. It's as if the US decided to hit pause on competing on AI and we're just going to let someone else win it. The US could be using these models to fix bugs and defend out systems.. but instead, we're all waiting for open sou…

I keep seeing this take but it doesn't seem to account for the fact that labs are still researching and iterating, even if they aren't releasing.

And your point on "Every time a US person or company watches someone use models they are prohibited from using to achieve something US models can't" makes no sense at all. What SOTA models are others able to use that US companies are not? Zero.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#64

Post by joe_mamba »

Animats wrote: post #53
delta_p_delta_x wrote: post #32

I don't understand the surprise in this article. This particular story is absolutely nothing new—the Germans and Japanese did it first to the US car market, which is inefficient, stuck in a bygone era, and propped up by government protectionism. Nearly all* American cars have been backwards in all metrics since about the 1970s. In general, if you wanted... Reliability: Japanese. Value: Korean, French, Japanese. Perfo…

The EV-only companies build much better EVs than companies that also build ICE cars. It took Tesla to get EVs going in the US. It will be interesting to see if Slate's little electric pickup truck really ships at the promised price point. They're advertising and taking pre-orders. Delivery dates are vague. "Q4 2026" probably means "a few demo units". Maybe in 2027. Incidentally, the Donut Labs solid-state battery app…

>It took Tesla to get EVs going in the US.

Tesla also helped shape the Chinese EV industry the same way how the first iPhone shaped all the other smartphone platforms.

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#65

Post by tremon »

Telemakhos wrote: post #50
JimsonYang wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Youre right, i forgot to add 4) europeans are environemtally conscious Americans however like their gas guzzling F150s. The reason I did the original comment was I know for a time the major car companies did a huge push into EVs. Like the ford 150 lightning, chevy bolt and mustang mach E. But they stopped manufacturing them due to weakened sales and profitability. Its a vicious feedback loop of consumer adoption, hig…

> Americans however like their gas guzzling F150s. Pickup trucks have always made up between 10% and 20% of vehicles on the road in America; it's the SUV that has picked up from next to nothing in 1980 to almost half of all new vehicles now, while the sedan has plunged from 80% to about 25% of new vehicles today. A big part of that transition to larger SUVs (which are not F150s) was the CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel E…

> Larger cars also perform better on safety tests

That's only true if we're limiting the discussion to the safety of the people inside said car. Quoting one of the first sources I could find: https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2024/06/big-cars-feel-...

a study found a 500 kilogram increase in vehicle weight, which could mean the difference between an SUV and a sedan, correlated with a 70% higher fatality risk

[after the 2003 bumper height-matching standard] The likelihood of SUVs causing fatalities to drivers in other cars reduced from being 132% more likely for a collision with an SUV in the early 90s, to 28% more likely by 2016

A mere 10 centimetre increase in front-end height can elevate the risk of pedestrian death by 22%, with impacts more likely occurring at critical injury points like the chest or head

Children are eight times more likely to die when struck by an SUV compared to lighter and smaller cars

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#66

Post by Helloworldboy »

OutOfHere wrote: post #6

To play devil's advocate, there is some logic to banning Chinese cars, which is that their firmware risks sending telemetry to China, also disabling/malfunctioning the car if China were to have a military engagement with the US. I suggest a middle road which is that the entire telemetry surface and firmware updates must be domestically managed, with no room for a closed-source foreign entity to manipulate it. An EV r…

[dead]

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#67

Post by azinman2 »

vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #41
dannersy wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we ignore the cultural issues with Americans where some places buying an EV is considered "gay" (because that is inheritently negative to them) then we can easily point to the hostile lobbying tactics and government capitulation via bought congressmen. Go look at the historical hostilities Tesla faced when first trying to take off. If I still lived in the US, I'd be hesitant to buy an EV because the infrastructure…

"Americans where some places buying an EV is considered "gay"" They would jump on EVs in heartbeat if Trump told them to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/elon-musk/trump-musk-tesla-whit...

Don’t forget…

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#68

Post by WarmWash »

rgbrenner wrote: post #34

US bans are based on the incorrect idea that we have control over AI. But the ban only reduces the most advanced model available from US companies. Models from other countries continue development. It's as if the US decided to hit pause on competing on AI and we're just going to let someone else win it. The US could be using these models to fix bugs and defend out systems.. but instead, we're all waiting for open sou…

The public will get ~5.5 level models.

Private industry will essentially get ITAR access to better models, and other countries will get 5.5 with maybe some select partners getting access.

Its totally sensible that the US will keep strong AI to itself to boost its own industry.

(ITAR is a very low bar, but you need to be a citizen and your employer must fill out some forms.)

Re: The US Used to Demand the Best Tech. Now We Ban It

#70

Post by jm4 »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #15
JimsonYang wrote: post #10

>Americans watch the rest of the world getting better, cheaper, ... If we wanted cheap cars, there needs to be demand to justify building giga factories of EVs. There just wasnt sufficient consumer demand to justify the giga factory investments China CAN generate demand for EVs because they have the political ability to 1) force gas restricted cars to only drive on certain days of the week 2) create a brutal lottery…

New car sales in Europe in 2026 are approaching 50% EV with essentially none of the above. Europe has had generous EV subsidies in the past, but in 2026 those are mostly (but not completely) gone.

EV’s do well in parts of the U.S. with good charging infrastructure. One of the challenges is this country is huge and there are large numbers of people in places where infrastructure or other factors make it difficult to drive an EV. Probably half the people in this country live in rural areas and smaller towns where the charging infrastructure doesn’t exist and doesn’t make much sense because no one drives an EV. It’s a chicken and egg problem.

Housing is another complication that’s related to the charging situation. It’s only worthwhile to own an EV if you can charge at home. There are people who make it work with only public chargers, but it’s a major PITA. That usually means owning a home where you can install a charger. That requirement excludes a lot of people.

It’s not that everyone wants a gas guzzler. There are real challenges here.

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