21–30 of 57 posts
There are no countries in europe who’s native language is english, and all online discourse would be in european languages.
( apart of course from the uk, but the author makes the distinction)
Am I understanding that the solution proposed in the article is to allow more dense building in suburbs/outskirts of cities in Europe? This doesn't solve the actual problem that many European cities face, which is a housing shortage in the actual city center, where people want to live; there's generally not that much a lack of housing the further you get outside of a major city center in Europe, and people don't want…
Are home prices just outside the city center stagnant?
Am I understanding that the solution proposed in the article is to allow more dense building in suburbs/outskirts of cities in Europe? This doesn't solve the actual problem that many European cities face, which is a housing shortage in the actual city center, where people want to live; there's generally not that much a lack of housing the further you get outside of a major city center in Europe, and people don't want…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah I do, it's called supply and demand. To have a growing population, every couple needs to have an average of 2.1 children. Let's say a couple have two children. From t=0 until approximately t=20, all four people require one housing unit. If that same couple does not have children (guess what's happening in every single western country!) and we instead lean on migration to increase the population for them, at t=0…
This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes. > at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy…
Funny how everything worked pretty well, zoning restrictions and all, until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration. An immigrant needs a house _today_, a baby needs their own separate housing unit in roughly 20 years. One approach towards population growth flattens the housing demand curve considerably, and it's not the one we're pursuing any longer. That's what's changed.
> until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration Do you have a source showing price increases correlate with migration? (The article seems to show a timing relationship between zoning and prices.)
Am I understanding that the solution proposed in the article is to allow more dense building in suburbs/outskirts of cities in Europe? This doesn't solve the actual problem that many European cities face, which is a housing shortage in the actual city center, where people want to live; there's generally not that much a lack of housing the further you get outside of a major city center in Europe, and people don't want…
> people don't want to live outside of the city center Are home prices just outside the city center stagnant?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes. > at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy…
But you agree it certainly must contribute to the problem?
As a multi-decade effect? No, not really. Absent migration I don’t think home prices would be flat in Europe.
In some cases, in the short term? Sure. But to answer to what extent is it a distraction versus actual driver of home unaffordability, you need numbers. The article provides compelling evidence for zoning. Given the animus against immigrants in Europe, I’d guess I’m assuming if these data existed they’d already have been found.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah I do, it's called supply and demand. To have a growing population, every couple needs to have an average of 2.1 children. Let's say a couple have two children. From t=0 until approximately t=20, all four people require one housing unit. If that same couple does not have children (guess what's happening in every single western country!) and we instead lean on migration to increase the population for them, at t=0…
This is not how one attributes principal causation among multiple potential causes. > at t=0 you have at least 2, maybe 3 housing units required for the same number of people Plenty of families immigrate. And at least in America, immigrant households seem to be denser than native-born ones. You’re assuming immigrant households are smaller than average, which would indeed be surprising unless they’re all quite wealthy…
Answer true or false. One couple+one child requires less housing (in the short-to-medium term) than one couple+one immigrant.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> people don't want to live outside of the city center Are home prices just outside the city center stagnant?
No, but they are don't rise nearly as much as real estate prices in city centers, and it's mostly irrelevant to the point I was making, because it doesn't matter how the prices are outside of the city center if you want to live in the city center.
Pick the low-hanging fruit. More housing outside the city centre (with requisite transit infrastructure) still means more-affordable housing. That, in turn, should relieve pressure on the centre.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> until public policy shifted towards papering over population decline with mass migration Do you have a source showing price increases correlate with migration? (The article seems to show a timing relationship between zoning and prices.)
You can see it in the Japanese data. Japan is more or less closed to immigrants, is experiencing a (for now) slow population decline, and house prices are plummeting.