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U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

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Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would definitely be a problem. A big one. Think of all the multi-national tech companies that have rolled out AI not only to their engineering teams but to their business teams now too. Suddenly your employees in the US can do more and do it quicker than your employees elsewhere. It would be a nightmare to try and manage.

That only applies to things Mythos does better than Opus. Mythos is supposedly very good at things such as finding vulnerabilities, but is it better at business tasks? IN the short time I had access to Fable it did not seem noticeably better at things I tried it for (lots of small tasks). Maybe it is better at vibe coding or finding security flaws, but at how much is it sufficiently better to be worth paying the extr…

You're assuming this export restriction won't apply to any future models. The problem is a couple of years from now when the ROW is still on Opus and US workers are on something much better.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would definitely be a problem. A big one. Think of all the multi-national tech companies that have rolled out AI not only to their engineering teams but to their business teams now too. Suddenly your employees in the US can do more and do it quicker than your employees elsewhere. It would be a nightmare to try and manage.

I disagree. I work at a very large international corporation. How much revenue do you think we’ve seen due to AI? I’d guess it’s zero. I know for the groups whose finances I see, it’s zero. Yet costs have gone way up. There’s a bunch of new code, but not anything customers are going to pay more for. And either way no AI basically puts you back to where we were last year. US employees have always been far more product…

>> There’s a bunch of new code, but not anything customers are going to pay more for.

This isn't an AI problem, it's a management issue. Why are you getting devs to build things that aren't going to generate revenue?

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#673

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi I'm from Europe and I'm about to start my second business. I don't have friends in high places, and the process is entirely online and takes about an hour to complete followed by 1-5 weeks of waiting for tax approval etc. Pro tip: most American anti-Europe propaganda is propaganda.

I do work in a bureaucracy heavy activity in Europe, and without my friends in high places I'd be shut down. I've had wait times for bureaucracy cut from 2 years to 2 weeks, licenses given after a dinner when official processes were denied, etc. I've never had these problems when trying to start the American branch. Competition yes, having to wine and dine local politicians nephews no

Dinner with politicians? Where do you live? Where I'm at(Sweden) someone getting a permit after dining with a politician would be front page news, along with judicial consequences for both the politician and the business owner in question.

Europe is quite diverse, even us Europeans tend to underestimate just how diverse it is.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#674

If this becomes the norm, what incentive does the rest of the world have to keep their markets open to the US? If US companies have a large unfair advantage such that domestic competitors are no longer able to compete, then wouldn't it make sense for governments around the world to ban or tariff US products and services? If I was responsible for national economic policy, I would place this at the top of my non-emerge…

Worse, why would you ever take a dependency on a US company. Even China seems more trustworthy at this point.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think whether a country is an importer or an exporter matters at this point. This is likely going to develop into a matter of national security. Nations cannot allow most of their domestic industries to be destroyed. If the US doesn't reverse course soon, I think we'll start seeing large-scale closure of international markets to US companies very soon. Even with US retaliation, there is no other option.

Zero chance of that happening. Europe has already largely deindustrialized and it never closed itself to China. Europe also tried to stop buying Russian oil and failed due to transshipment through India. It's really sad seeing how little so many of us Europeans understand the situation. America and China hold all the cards, Europe holds none. It makes very little that is both unique and strategic. Decades of left win…

Germany, the 3th biggest GDP country is deindustrializing right now.

that def will hurt.

But we still have a lot of capital left, so plenty of ways to adress the elephant in the room. Its just very weird that the current CDU doesn't has any real good ideas.

USA has a certain amount of hands especially IT but otherwise? China runs circles around Europe and USA for everything else.

Btw. CDU was in power for 16 years and is more right wing than center. If you say left wing in sense of not protecting our own markets, i think this was accepted globally.

USA also can't make things anymore.

If no-one comes up with the general notion of a min of like 60% home made, none of it matters because rebuilding this will take a lot of time and money.

And even with a chip factory in USA, they still import most and automate as much as possible.

This might reduce the pressure on USA Loans but will not help the USA people themselves. They will just continue seeing a bigger and bigger split between poor and rich.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe generates ~20% of revenue for US big tech which is a large part of its stock market. With how precariously coupled US growth is to these companies, it absolutely needs that market.

But can the Europe survive without the US big tech. Imagine the worst case US bans any sort of export from big tech to Europe, all startups and even every tech reliant company in EU would collapse without AWS, Azure or Google cloud. Also imagine ban on exports from Apple and Google, from tomorrow onwards both iPhones and Android phones stops working because software services are banned in EU. It’s so easy to argue on…

that would actually spark a new golden age.

aws et all are just extracting rent. we all know this.

telcos have some ownership of the android firmware they distribute, and could easily spin up and fund alternatives like replicant or even go full partnership with Chinese versions.

simply moving email providers from Microsoft would make threeletter agencies work much more difficult, and it's a 2min dns change.

any way you look at it, the impact would be positive. i don't think your example is the example you think it is. like trump, you're ignoring agency to every other player in the systems and ignoring some obvious consequences.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, meant tax more heavily. Uk's tax is 2% and limited to advertising and marketplace fees.

I'm happy to vote for anyone who can put an extra 0 on that, it would be nice for these companies to pay more tax than me one of these years....

They already pay. How 10usd subscriptions become 10eur or 10£? Companies pay lawyers and beurocrats and accountants to operate.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#678
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US as a large-scale import nation and so does not need the rest of the world (except perhaps Europe, and only small parts) to keep its markets open to the US. Even in the European case, Europe would lose much more than the US would if they closed their markets. Plus, a lot of Europe is either very close to breaking point and unwilling to change (Italy), or rapidly worsening into a crash, and unwilling to change (…

I think this is a bit too deterministic. Even if Europe is in a weak position economically, "the US does not need the rest of the world" seems overstated

I would even argue that the USA is imploding without China.

The normal USA citicen can't afford a car anymore. Either they make it a lot cheaper over there or they have to continue pressue the USA Citicents to accept that they are not allowed to buy cheap China products.

It will be quitei nteresting to see if we will see a global rebalancing of manufactoring and co around the globe for USA, Europe and China or a overall change in system from pure capitalism to something else.

Or the big players start to reinvest into countries again to have customers who can actually afford it again.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#679
post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's really frustrating to read pages of comments rooted in emotion and no understanding of the existing laws. I read your frustration. Try to let go of the fact that there are many smart people who aren't experts in legal affairs. Cite eCFR if they're wrong, and move on. As much as they don't know the rules, you don't know their situation. For all you know, the subscriber may be a US Citizen + Delaware C Corp owne…

At some point it becomes willful ignorance of history. I remember a time not very long ago when everyday crypto like 128-bit SSL was restricted under US export law. The old web browsers came in separate, "exportable" versions. [1] Phil Zimmermann was in big trouble for releasing PGP. That was the mid-90s. Clinton was President so this stuff transcends politics. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Netscape_Navigato…

Sounds about the mechanisms they'd use to prevent consumers from having edge inference. Their final moats.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#680

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. I work at a very large international corporation. How much revenue do you think we’ve seen due to AI? I’d guess it’s zero. I know for the groups whose finances I see, it’s zero. Yet costs have gone way up. There’s a bunch of new code, but not anything customers are going to pay more for. And either way no AI basically puts you back to where we were last year. US employees have always been far more product…

>> There’s a bunch of new code, but not anything customers are going to pay more for. This isn't an AI problem, it's a management issue. Why are you getting devs to build things that aren't going to generate revenue?

Do you think the only bottleneck in dev has been the speed of coding? I think it’s obvious that this is not the case. It’s finding product market fit, actually discovering and deciding what must be built, and then selling it. And there’s a deeper economic reality: budgets for software are finite and limited, and already close to maxed for most consumers and businesses. If my customers can only afford $500/month total for software, no amount of software I make will push them past that.

It’s not just us: where’s the revenue in the entire market? We can see all the public filings. There haven’t been any revenue gains. The only people making money from AI are the LLM providers. And even they are losing money. Even the biggest tech companies are limiting token spend. At best the tech is a new cost just to maintain parity, and I think most businesses look at it as a way to cut dev costs (trading for token spend). I think they will learn that it’s less of a win than they hoped. If a dev was spending 50% of their time coding, and you reduce that to 10% - that’s a big change but it isn’t really making you more because it’s all that time we hate in meetings, understanding customer needs, etc, that make us money.

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