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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#411

Post by Dilettante_ »

weird-eye-issue wrote: post #408
Dilettante_ wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with me is I'm autistic enough to expect people to be able to follow arguments. I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets", what I said was "Let's find where the line between gambling and investing is, here's an example from which to pick apart the features that make gambling vs investing".

> I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets" I never said that you said that, so now you are just arguing with a straw man that you just created, and your lack of ability to understand that is going to make a productive conversation impossible. Good luck with your gambling.

You haven't been putting in any good-faith effort into having a "productive conversation" for at least three of your responses, setting up "This is how things are" with no attempt to support this with any arguments, and have equally refused/dodged out of engaging with any of mine.

Your brain has just had your mental block up very obviously starting from your knee-jerk "what is wrong with you?" comment, isolating you from the scary prospect of being convinced by a consistent chain of logic, and now you're looking for a face-saving way of ejecting from the conversation.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#412

Post by stouset »

Dilettante_ wrote: post #406
stouset wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t miss the point at all. Once you’re in, unless you want to sell your stake, you’re in. But the entire point is that at the time of your bet, you’re taking a position that’s inherently disadvantaged. If there was any more EV to be gained, people with more money than you would have exhausted it. So without insider information, you’re flipping a coin but the house takes a cut.

> if there was any more EV to be gained, people with more money than you would have exhausted it In a perfect market that everyone participates in and in which everyone has perfect information, but not down here in messy reality. Your logic would have you you seeing a dollar on the ground and without further investigation go "Oh that can't be real, if it were someone would have picked it up already!" Or refusing to p…

The stock market isn't perfect and not everyone participates in it, and the data is extraordinarily clear that essentially nobody is capable of extracting a durable edge. Of the people who do beat the market in a given year, those who beat the market the next year appear to follow the exact same distribution as the market as a whole.

Prediction markets are worse, both on the surface and by the actual statistics. The house takes an enormous cut, and then you have the issue of trading against insiders. Only an absolute rube would put money into a market rife with insiders, when they don't have comparable information. And the statistics bear this out. Something like 80% of all profits are captured by the top 1% of profitable users, which are only 30% of the total user base.

Anyone who thinks they will consistently make sound bets in these platforms without actually having private knowledge is a complete fool.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#413

Post by weird-eye-issue »

Dilettante_ wrote: post #411
weird-eye-issue wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I did not say "There are no differences between Government Bonds and Prediction Markets" I never said that you said that, so now you are just arguing with a straw man that you just created, and your lack of ability to understand that is going to make a productive conversation impossible. Good luck with your gambling.

You haven't been putting in any good-faith effort into having a "productive conversation" for at least three of your responses, setting up "This is how things are" with no attempt to support this with any arguments, and have equally refused/dodged out of engaging with any of mine. Your brain has just had your mental block up very obviously starting from your knee-jerk "what is wrong with you?" comment, isolating you…

Because it's clear there would be no getting through to you. So again good luck with your gambling.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#414

Post by herpderperator »

brador wrote: post #127
herpderperator wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cash advance is taking physical cash out with your credit card at an ATM or bank teller. Making an online purchase (which depositing money into your Kalshi account is) is therefore not a cash advance.

It’s a cash advance since you’re not purchasing goods or services with the card.

It's not a cash advance. I funded my Kalshi account using a Capital One credit card. Not only was it not classified a cash advance, I got 1.5% back as is standard on this card.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#415

Post by herpderperator »

notpushkin wrote: post #154
herpderperator wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A cash advance is taking physical cash out with your credit card at an ATM or bank teller. Making an online purchase (which depositing money into your Kalshi account is) is therefore not a cash advance.

There is a whole lot of merchant categories that is treated like withdrawing money from an ATM. I believe the term is “quasicash”.

Prediction market aren't one of them. I checked my credit card statement and the transaction was classified as Professional Services.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#416

Post by herpderperator »

herpderperator wrote: post #124
LPisGood wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is, and I know someone who found that out the hard way during the Super Bowl.

A cash advance is taking physical cash out with your credit card at an ATM or bank teller. Making an online purchase (which depositing money into your Kalshi account is) is therefore not a cash advance.

I really appreciate all of the colourful feedback, but as I have said, this is not a cash advance. It was classified as Professional Services by Capital One and I received 1.5% cash back as is standard with the credit card I used.

The issue stems from the fact that people believe prediction markets are gambling. Prediction markets are financial derivatives regulated by the CFTC. This definition is not something I am trying to defend, I am simply accepting the current legal definition to explain why funding your Kalshi account is not considered a cash advance. Gambling is not even allowed in my state, yet Kalshi is permitted. Legally, Kalshi is not gambling as of the current legislation. That is why, for the nth time, funding your Kalshi account is NOT considered a cash advance.

People should do a little bit of research before blindly downvoting, or maybe even try it for themselves.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#417

Post by herpderperator »

brador wrote: post #212
weird-eye-issue wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily, I mean if you buy a in-game item or currency that wouldn't be a cash advance so with this they could just say you bought $20 worth of credits and since you're buying credits that could be considered a good.

That would be purchasing a license (service). Gambling is always classed as a cash advance. The gift cards trick has been tapped and closed, the credit companies figured it out decades ago.

This is not gambling in the legal sense (gambling is not even allowed in my state, and yet here I am using Kalshi, in case you wanted to argue that), which is why my transaction was classified as Professional Services and, for the nth time, NOT a cash advance.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#419

Post by jjcob »

noisy_boy wrote: post #278
jjcob wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The burger ad is also getting people addicted and destroying lives. But with burgers most people blame the victims. In my opinion it's all the same. Gambling, junk food, drugs, guns... Lots of money to be made, lots of lives destroyed.

> The burger ad is also getting people addicted and destroying lives. I think it will take quite a while to wipe out one's life savings eating burgers.

an unhealthy diet will literally wipe out your life.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#420

Post by trumpdong »

trumpdong wrote: post #303
snowpid wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its called DMA and DSA. Much hated by many American HNlers here.

Digital Markets Act and Digital Devices Act in the EU

I meant: Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act
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