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Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

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31–40 of 111 posts

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#31

> On top of that comes what is owed to oil companies and suppliers, claims stemming from expropriations under Chávez and the outstanding loans from China and Russia. It seems like China or Russia would expect to be paid not in dollars, but in Oil Wells and Refineries. Why would they accept restructuring of the debt instead of repo'ing the assets?

I expect Russia won't be collecting anything.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#32
post #2

According to the Financial Times, it will be the world’s largest debt restructuring.[a] Venezuela's economy has been a disaster for many years.[b] Surely I'm not the only one wondering: Where did all that borrowed money go? If any of it had been spent to buy goods and services inside Venezuela, it would have led to at least some business formation and activity. Instead, there's only been business destruction and cons…

“Investors have previously estimated that Venezuela also owes $30bn-$50bn to oil companies and trade creditors for unpaid invoices and more than $20bn in legal claims awarded to companies after Chávez’s regime expropriated their property. Venezuela has also been estimated to owe $10bn-$20bn to China in debts that Caracas previously paid from oil exports but is believed to have stopped servicing, about $6bn to Russia,…

The legal claims from expropriation, I get that... but everything else was actually borrowed.

Whether the form was debt issuance or unpaid accounts payable, the rest actually was borrowed.

It's kind of an "impressive accomplishment" in my view.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#33

Smart move to acknowledge this and go for the debt restructuring while the current U.S. president sees Venezuela as his major foreign policy win. The government will be able to leverage that to get the U.S. government to push for far more favorable terms for Venezuela than it ever would have otherwise.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> economic normalization

You mean the looting

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#34
Most of this debt will be forgiven or given a significant haircut.

The legal term is odious debt and it has a long history of debt taken out by dictators being forgiven once the dictator has been removed.

The IMF will normally make a ruling on this as to if the debt is odious or not but given how a few big hedge funds that normally go after discounted debt have recently dumped a chuck of Venezuela's debt the writing is on the wall as they say.

I'm not a government credit expert but what analysts are saying to expect 60-75% of the debt to be restructured, not forgiven, in terms of a 50% hair cut.

The debts owed to oil companies secured by oil infrastructure is less likely to be written off as Venezuela will need foreign help to rebuild their oil infrastructure form these same companies, giving them a fair bit of leverage here:)

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#35
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously, but $240B is a lot of money for a country with only 9M households, so, around $27K/household. It's an "accomplishment" of sorts to blow up in smoke that much money per household, with nothing to show for it. How the heck did they do that ?

1. Dictator gets loans for his country 2. Dictator puts the money in his Swiss bank account 3. Government is overthrown 4. The populace has to pay off the debt Perhaps him being in custody will lead to some of the money being found and returned.

I don't think there's a Swiss bank account in the world with room for $240b.

There's no doubt Maduro enjoyed some taste of the froth, but this is a silly oversimplification.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#36
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. It's almost like people currently in the white house know what they're doing, right? Who would have thought! /s

They know what they are doing in the sense that it is all about the looting

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#37
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Investors have previously estimated that Venezuela also owes $30bn-$50bn to oil companies and trade creditors for unpaid invoices and more than $20bn in legal claims awarded to companies after Chávez’s regime expropriated their property. Venezuela has also been estimated to owe $10bn-$20bn to China in debts that Caracas previously paid from oil exports but is believed to have stopped servicing, about $6bn to Russia,…

The legal claims from expropriation, I get that... but everything else was actually borrowed . Whether the form was debt issuance or unpaid accounts payable, the rest actually was borrowed. It's kind of an "impressive accomplishment" in my view.

> doesn't matter if the form was debt issuance or unpaid accounts payable, it was borrowed

It matters by whom it was lent. Caracas telling China to fuck off is pretty easy right now. Less so if it’s an American investor.

If anyone has an outline of to whom the other hundreds of billions are owed, I’d be curious to see it.

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#38

Smart move to acknowledge this and go for the debt restructuring while the current U.S. president sees Venezuela as his major foreign policy win. The government will be able to leverage that to get the U.S. government to push for far more favorable terms for Venezuela than it ever would have otherwise.

Like him or hate him, Venezuela has been quite literally a fabulous win.

Literally nothing has changed except for the names though?

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#39
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. Without even changing the party in power, Trump can pretend Venezuela is reformed and do all of the economic normalization a liberal president never would have gotten away with. But the back-to-back policy disasters are otherwise a good reminder that a broken clock is only right twice a day.

> It's really absurd how well the Maduros kidnapping plan worked. It's almost like people currently in the white house know what they're doing, right? Who would have thought! /s

The same people attacked Iran without a plan for what to do if they closed the Strait of Hormuz

Re: Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)

#40
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely doesn't happen under capitalism, right? Remind me again what the current President's net worth has done recently?

I'm 100% fine with moving almost all government payments to a system where elected officials need to sign off before a payment is made. As long as he/she is willing to be responsible for the fraud that takes place. And I will walk Trump to jail when this happens, just as I walk the names I posted to jail too. And no, in PURE capitalism, it doesn't happen. It's just that we have too much socialist shit. In pure capita…

> And no, in PURE capitalism, it doesn't happen.

Just like PURE communism!

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