So Polymarket did marketing....what a shock.
Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
381–390 of 424 posts
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#382> He compared the videos to fast-food commercials, where food can appear more appealing than it does in real life. > “We’re depicting what actually happens,” he said. The cope is real. They all know they are destroying lives by promoting gambling to young people and eventually some of them are going to overspend and get addicted. But yeah, it's just like an ad for a burger
It is time to admit that the Chinese were right when they built their great firewall. You either protect yourself from America or your civilization is lost to the void.
America was much better on betting a few years ago, it's been very recent.
I would have thought that trump giving so much to christians, he would be against betting but there are things that are beyond my understanding.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#383Earlier quoted context omitted.
In a casino you can bet against other people too. Nonetheless, the house always wins and takes its cut.
With gambling you should always play for entertainment. If you play to win you've already lost.
But if you don't win, where's the fun in that? Do you consider other ways to part with your money also as entertainment? Is donating entertaining?
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#384Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's also heroine and fentanyl, both are regulated by the law.
Heroin is illegal for people of all ages, and those laws don't work either.
Fair enough. Alcohol is regulated for children.
Laws don't have to be enforced perfectly to be effective in most cases.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#385Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm confused by how you're modeling these markets. Let's say I am quite sure that the Steam Machine will cost more than $700 dollars, and I buy a 'yes' lot for 65 cents on the payed-out dollar, those are the odds at my buy-in time. Where exactly now do the other participants' bets on the same market influence my chance to win/lose? How am I up against them and not the question "will my prediction come true"? Sure, be…
How exactly do you think the price is set at 65 cents, if not by the other market participants? When you win, who do you think is paying you out from the other side of the bet? When you lose, who do you think your money goes to?
Not only did you miss the point of the conversation entirely, you're attacking a point I explicitly addressed in my comment. I well understand how the system works, ggps comment had me confused about their perspective.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#386Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
You cannot bet 50/50 on that question. Hence, you aren't actually asked to evaluate whether the answer to the questions you posted is 'yes' or 'no'. You are instead asked 'is the actual chance of it happening higher or lower than the current breakeven chance as posted on Kalshi / Polymarket'.
Can you help me better grasp this? My intuition is thus: Sure, if I'm going at it like a proper rationalist, I'd have to do things like calculate expected value or whatever(I fully admit my lack of foundational knowledge when it comes to statistics), but at the surface the questions I feel I'm being asked is: "Is this a winning ticket?" and then "How much would you pay for a ticket set to win $1?" The latter question being obviously meaningless except for the obvious: It does not matter in the slightest, as long as I don't pay 1$ or more.
So you could see how the face odds are irrelevant to me, only my internal yes/no intuition? Obviously this is not optimized, opportunity cost etc etc, but is there a big hole in my thinking you could point me in the direction of?
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#387Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're sneaking in a prior assumption that people will act stupidly, and then make the argument "Well since they act stupidly they will have bad outcomes". That's like me claiming "Your startup is gonna fail, I can tell, because you'd need to be able to read and write to make it in business!"(sneaking in the prior assumption that the person in question is not in fact able to read or write) Your strategic consideratio…
Well my assumption that gamblers will do something stupid is not that far flung. And regarding your comment about investment literacy yes I agree with you but just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing.
>just to be clear we are discussing gambling and not investing
Where's the demarcation? The whole point of this sub-thread was "you absolutely can predict the outcome of some of these markets". If you do your due dilligence/leverage your domain knowledge to buy a thing you expect to pay dividends at a later date, how is that not investing? Are government bonds gambling in your thinking?
Your prior about people acting unwise is still sneaking in via the assertion that we are talking about gambling.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#388Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
The betting topic is only a part of the equation. Should you bet $100 to win $5 on the Steamdeck price? Should you sell your bet before the Steamdeck even comes out?
But that's about juicing the maximum amount out of each bet, not about the matter of simply winning or losing(which was what I was originally responding to). If any situation one doesn't take for all its worth is a loss then I agree that it's damn near impossible to win, but this would be true everywhere.
I am intentionally flattening these trades to simple win/loss affairs(not just for the sake of this argument).
You're playing the game at a higher level and "complaining" at the increased complexity(I don't mean to say you are complaining, I just couldn't think of a better word). You're talkkng about the 80% that get you the last 20%, I'm talking about the 20% that get me the 80.
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#389the fact that apps like Polymarket seem to be legal is absolutely crazy to me.
Thank donald trump jr
Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators
#390Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is time to admit that the Chinese were right when they built their great firewall. You either protect yourself from America or your civilization is lost to the void.
America was much better on betting a few years ago, it's been very recent. I would have thought that trump giving so much to christians, he would be against betting but there are things that are beyond my understanding.
Trump is great at gettinf christians to completelt forget their moral stances