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Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

stephendiehl.com

351–360 of 561 posts

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#351

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https://github.com/CirclesUBI/whitepaper/blob/master/README.... seemed interesting because it uses a different model that's not interchangeable with any current system. It died in 2024 however.

Yeah, that was my favorite one so far. Although I didn't much like the pact that if we're friends we assert that each other's tokens are equal in value. I know that's in the spirit of UBI but if you're building a web of trust then it seems like a missed opportunity to create incentives around being so damn useful to your community that people treat your tokens as more valuable than somebody who is less useful. To mak…

How would that work? I (an important person who is very loved and trusted by thousands of people) agree to give you (a nobody) 0.20 of my tokens for every 1 of your tokens? That smells like financialization, I'd effectively profit 80% on all of your transactions through me.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the whole point of an economy a method of resolving scarcity? Money is a proxy for participation; it keeps me from having to agree to paint the miller's fence in exchange for some flour.

Used to be, but now it's agree to paint Musk's fence in exchange for nothing, or else you aren't even allowed to exist, because the system has been thoroughly gamed. Usually when a metric becomes too gamed it's imperative that we stop using it as a metric (Goodhart's law) or else very bad things happen.

I live a perfectly fine, productive life not contributing to musk's empire. Are y'all really buying Teslas and blue twitter checks? The fact that he has a bunch of money really has no bearing on me.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When people in a developing country cannot hold foreign currency it is a result of a deliberate decision by their government. That creates a number of issues. They may well be breaking the law holding stable coins. It means practical difficulties in buying stable coins (they need someone who will sell stablecoins in their currency).

Right! It's not that stable coins are decentralized, it's that the centralized holder is not in your jurisdiction and so your jurisdiction can't deface their money!

The only bad thing with USD based stable coin is you have to trust that the USA will keep paying its debts longer than you hold the stable coin.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. In fact, crypto is ahead, because it does have a legitimate use case. Two, actually - money laundering and sanctions evasion.

I'm not sure I agree on your definition of legitimate... If we want to say that any value generating - including crime - is inbounds, then LLMs are FANTASTIC scam machines. There are incredible uses for LLMs in a lot of stealing money spaces.

I'll admit I was being a bit provocative with wording there ;)

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly I blame the stock market goons for normalizing calling "betting on the stock market" investing. The stock market isn't investing it's gambling. Same for the bond market and most asset markets. Buying a bond from the issuer is investing. Buying an IPO is investing. Buying a rental property is investing. Investment implies possible productive result from the action. When you buy shares or bonds already on the…

Buying a rental property is just exiting the previous holder too. I would define it differently. If you are putting money in something with the hope that the price goes up, that's speculating. If you put money in something with the hope that it generates income then that's investing. So buying stocks could be either one.

> Buying a rental property is just exiting the previous holder too.

And using it to generate income, maintaining it for the customers (renters) etc

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#356
post #22

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This is a "vice" thing. Vices are things which match this pattern like alcohol or drugs: - many people don't indulge at all - many people indulge occasionally to no real harm - some people indulge in a way that makes a short term recoverable mess - a few people get addicted and are unable to stop. May or may not also be harmed at this point, but this tends to lead to cumulative harm - a few people really mess up trag…

I think this description is deceptive because it assumes bucket sizes ("many," "some," "a few"). Those bucket sizes work for alcohol and some recreational drugs. But they're tragically wrong for others--very very few people partake of heroin "occasionally with no real harm." You're almost certainly heading towards the last two buckets.

Actually there's been studies that show the majority of heroin users self limit their use to, yes, no real harm. The idea of the heroin user that's immediately thrown into an addiction where they start pawning Grandma's TV is propaganda.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#357
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right! It's not that stable coins are decentralized, it's that the centralized holder is not in your jurisdiction and so your jurisdiction can't deface their money!

The only bad thing with USD based stable coin is you have to trust that the USA will keep paying its debts longer than you hold the stable coin.

That sounds like a good bet.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#358
post #50

I've been deep into crypto for years and I was a big stablecoin supporter. I was fascinated by the tech and I still am. But everything outside the tech itself is just trash, scams, and gambling. I've come to believe that "pure" decentralization is neither practical nor particularly convenient. The only real use case that makes sense to me is giving people in developing countries access to a stable currency they can a…

Exactly. Cryptocurrency is useful as as a backup system against failing/weak institutions. Just that. Like insurance, it was not there to make anyone's lives better but simply to become a safeguard to avoid complete collapse.

It doesn't even do that. If there's complete collapse, there won't be a reliable network to transact over, and not reliable electricity to run the network and do the processing.

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#359
post #337

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What? I have never come across that. No problem with notes in many currencies with folds a creases, even small tears.. In my experience bank notes last for ever anyway. I have various notes from countries I have travelled to decades ago in good condition.

If you're going to Paris? Sure, as long as the amounts are relatively small. Try paying with pre 2009 100USD bills in Africa lol. Even banks struggle with this https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/05/30/old-money-new-proble... Goes to show how viable cash is as a store of value for most of the world.

According to that article it has nothing to do with condition, but with the lack of anti-counterfeiting protection on older notes.

I have lived in, and briefly worked in a bank in, in a country where people do use USD, GBP etc. notes as a store of value, sometimes in large amounts (you hear about that when they get burgled!).

Re: Crypto in 2026: Oh, This Is the Bad Place

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked at blockchain companies for 4 years and this is not true. The ratio of degenerate engineers is maybe 30% but business people is 80%. People I have worked with were much better compared to other companies I worked in like aviation or consulting

Same here. I’ve met a lot of smart, passionate people in the space that are very respectable.

I absolutely believe this, it attracts developers that can see the idealistic potential. It is worthwhile to do your part for an ideal future.

The fact that you your vision is undermined by a determined group of profiteers doesn’t diminish the value of what you can accomplish toward an ideal future.

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