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AI's Affordability Crisis

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Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#61

Post by dofm »

com2kid wrote: post #29
jschveibinz wrote: post #5

I don't have a crystal ball, but based on similar historical scenarios, I think that one or two of these companies will win--probably because of some unique application, delivery or trade secret that will drive 80% of their revenue. Consider Google, Apple, Amazon, etc. It's still early days...

So long as Chinese labs keep writing white papers, trade secrets aren't going to win the day. Having growth up in the 90s, it is weird seeing companies share their technology secrets publicly.

Wandering around pretending to be researchers who are only just figuring out how to make money is, for the short term, an incredibly good way to attract a load of naïve money; not all sharks are smart.

And it does, nowadays, give you a bit of a veneer of mere curiosity when you're being accused of massive theft.

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#62

Post by rhinoceraptor »

tacone wrote: post #27

My take is that Anthropic and OpenAI simply are NOT competing on price. 2 big players are often not enough to create tension on price. Chinese models and open model providers are, indeed, competing on price, and the difference shows.

How are Anthropic and OpenAI going to compete on price when they're both already deeply unprofitable?

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#63

Post by steveBK123 »

jayd16 wrote: post #58
piker wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I.e., the demand for programming tokens turns out to be quite elastic.

If folks won't pay a higher price, doesn't that mean it's inelastic?

Elastic demand means buyers are highly sensitive; a price hike causes a massive drop in purchases. Inelastic demand means buyers aren’t very sensitive; they keep buying regardless of price

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#64

Post by tmpz22 »

hackingonempty wrote: post #53
CuriouslyC wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and get in on the captive market. The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding, their next play is custom models for specific domains... Anthropic Galen for biomedical research, Anthropic Locke for legal analysis, etc, and you won't see _ANY_ intermedia…

> The US govt is going to ban foreign models The people have a right to make and use whatever models they want, protected by the constitution. At a minimum, the models are described in research papers that are unquestionably protected speech. Skilled devs turn those into programs, also protected speech.

Yes our passionate defense of Academia will surely survive Techno Oligarchs desire for a 20th vacation home

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#65

Post by giantrobot »

hackingonempty wrote: post #53
CuriouslyC wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and get in on the captive market. The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding, their next play is custom models for specific domains... Anthropic Galen for biomedical research, Anthropic Locke for legal analysis, etc, and you won't see _ANY_ intermedia…

> The US govt is going to ban foreign models The people have a right to make and use whatever models they want, protected by the constitution. At a minimum, the models are described in research papers that are unquestionably protected speech. Skilled devs turn those into programs, also protected speech.

The current administration has repeatedly demonstrated they do not feel constrained by laws or the Constitution.

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#66

Post by manapause »

jimbokun wrote: post #28
steveBK123 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it probably doesn't help that Dario is going around on podcasts saying things like "frontier labs need $1T of revenue or they will go bankrupt" lol.

Dario’s company may be creating super intelligence that will kill us all in the near future, but at least he seems to be brutally honest about all of it.

The irony in AI triggering societal collapse due to gross economic malfeasance is just fun to think about.

If AI was around in the early 2000s Countrywide.ai would have been a thing.

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#67

Post by dofm »

Catloafdev wrote: post #55

Affordability is not the current goal. Vendor lock-in is the current goal. Consumer prices are a drop in the bucket comparatively.

Luckily the industry is much too wise, after a couple of decades of cloud infrastructure, to willingly opt to make itself entirely dependent on one of two platforms with opaque and complicated pricing. We've learned our lessons, oh yes

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#68

Post by GodelNumbering »

I don't see any real point being made in (or point of) the article. The author sort of just...dumped a bunch of links with the noise that is so incredibly mainstream at the moment that I doubt any of it is news to anyone even somewhat tracking the AI cycle. Most of it (except for maybe the BLS[1] stat) is just regurgitation.

[1]: And this too is incorrect, should be " the number of jobs displaced would be around 32.5M" (the post says 32.5K)

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#69

Post by raincole »

> OpenAI Had $13.07 Billion In Revenue, $34 Billion In Costs and Expenses, and $20.92 Billion In Losses, with a net loss attributable to the company of $38.53 Billion

This is going to be the new most misquoted/misunderstood data of the year, isn't it? The cost is mostly from a one-time accounting situation due to their pivot from a non-profit organization.[0] If we trust the leak [1] OpenAI is likely turning profitable this year.

[0]: $30Bn of it is the one-time cost. https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb...

[1]: I suspect OpenAI itself leaked that financial report. It's almost unbelievably healthy.

Re: AI's Affordability Crisis

#70

Post by CuriouslyC »

Analemma_ wrote: post #46
CuriouslyC wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and get in on the captive market. The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding, their next play is custom models for specific domains... Anthropic Galen for biomedical research, Anthropic Locke for legal analysis, etc, and you won't see _ANY_ intermedia…

> The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding You are way too deep in the HN bubble.

I'm looking at how market/human forces are going to make the game play out when extended to its logical conclusion, not the score on the scoreboard RIGHT now.
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