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The Doom Justifies the Valuation

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Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#151

Post by watwut »

tim333 wrote: post #150

>It’s all just nonsensical hype, ... It’s a questionable promise of future technology. I don't see why pondering the future and planning for eventualities is bad. Better to ignore it and have no plans?

They are literally the companies who are actively working to create the future they warn about. So, if they are genuine, they should stop being evil and stop trying to bring in armagedon.

So, yeah, if that is real concern, they should not ignore it, but should stop themselves for real.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#152

Post by JMiao »

bryan0 wrote: post #101
JMiao wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's an inaccurate characterization on #1. he's not saying ai risk is _all_ hype to boost valuations, but that it's misused to serve purposes other than warning.

Those words come directly from TFA: > It’s all just nonsensical hype And he’s referring to completely real and reasonable warnings in anthropic blog posts about the exponential rate of AI development.

what the "tfa" doesn't say is that geohot writes like how most people talk. you're framing the observation you don't like around a single word and ignoring everything else.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#153

Post by OnlyANeurosci »

ajyoon wrote: post #61
jmye wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's obviously not good for profits. Weird to think profits matter half as much as ever-increasing valuations, driven by memetic bullshit. E.g. the entire point of the article you're commenting on.

Anthropic's valuation is driven by its revenue growth. Export controls harm this. Hype certainly plays a role, but it's simply not the case that revenue is not a major part of the picture.

What revenue growth? They go from net loss in year 1 to larger net loss in year 2, always have.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#154

Post by empw »

tim333 wrote: post #149
skygazer wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://archive.ph/UTcTa

The argument in the article seems dumb. Basically if companies believe AI is risky then morally they have to stop developing it. Which would be kind of stupid - if Anthropic etc. don't do it the Chinese or some other bunch will and likely less responsibly.

Good thing the Chinese have given up all AI research now that Anthropic is on the case.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#155

Post by jackling »

Can't speak to his technical skill, but going through this post, and several of his other posts, this man doesn't seem all that bright.

His takes lack nuance, there's no analysis in his writing, just what appears to be fuming at vague issues he sees in society.

This post is confusing to me. From the blog's name, in addition to these other blog posts [1] and [2], you would think he's contributing to the doomerism that he's lamenting here. If the singularity is near, and the big companies control capital, then the doomerism is correct, no?

To add to that, his lack of critical thought shows up in other posts as well [3]. He does not really understand the nuance of fiat currency or entitlement programs. Like the blog post above, he also seems to like "offending" people for the sake of offending them. In [3], he seems to think insulting Christianity, despite being a Christian himself but not believing in the core of the religion, is somehow getting back at "wokists."

[1] https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2026/01/17/three...

[2] https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2026/02/13/i-tol...

[3] https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2026/04/18/five-...

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#156

Post by dodu_ »

scarmig wrote: post #102
dodu_ wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> This would be a great point if I had introduced either the NFT/crypto comparison OR the "existential threat" parameters, but if you read through the thread, you introduced both. To quote you, ten minutes before: > that the apocalypse is coming and your jobs are gone and everything is going to be shitty because a bunch of ultra rich midwits want even more money and there's nothing you can do to stop it. It's a fair…

[flagged]

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#157

Post by sometimelurker »

tim333 wrote: post #147
sometimelurker wrote: post #134

I was hoping for more analysis here :\ like from a technical standpoint, why is the doom and gloom incorrect? I've heard some really interesting arguments for that, and non of them are here.

I think the counter arguments to doom are more social and economic. If we make AI smarter than ourselves it's likely people will still have jobs/income and a higher standard of living in the same way that in invention of the tractor didn't lead to millions of unemployed potato diggers and a potato tycoon with a million tons of spare potatoes.

> likely people will still have jobs/

doing what though? in a really literal sense, if an LLM can do RLVR, that's optimization over the space of algorithms, and so anything with a measurable goal at the end can be incentivized. if it can be measurably finished, it can be automated.

there are exceptions to this, like psychology, preschool teachers, and AI safety, that cant be 100% fully automated. in the case of Ai safety, the core motivation for it is to prevent the otherwise hyper-consequentialist goal-orented training algorithms (and mesa-optimizers they now find) from doing 'bad' things by instilling some 'values' into these machines. the ideas of 'good/bad' and 'values' cant be automated away, and I think you can prove that its unautomatable using EY's orthogonality thesis.

I doubt these few unautomatable jobs can keep everyone afloat though. but maybe a world in which 10% of the population has a degree in psychology wouldn't be that bad

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#158

Post by ben_w »

tim333 wrote: post #144
ben_w wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole episode about Mythos has been the absolute best free PR move ever designed. Great PR. For a product nobody can pay for. And a high chance that when anyone can, the market shrinks from "worldwide internet users" to "the USA only". And it's known to be a highly dynamic market: based on the historical average, it only takes 11 weeks to be completely trounced by someone else's model, so if you're out of the m…

>For a product nobody can pay for I remember then Thefacebook.com was only available at certain universities and everyone felt slight envy that they weren't included. Didn't work out too bad for them.

Do you remember them being hit with an export ban that also included their own staff?

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#159

Post by suttontom »

bryan0 wrote: post #101
JMiao wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's an inaccurate characterization on #1. he's not saying ai risk is _all_ hype to boost valuations, but that it's misused to serve purposes other than warning.

Those words come directly from TFA: > It’s all just nonsensical hype And he’s referring to completely real and reasonable warnings in anthropic blog posts about the exponential rate of AI development.

It's a blog. He's using hyperbole. It's not a Supreme Court opinion.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#160

Post by zombot »

> How do we build an economy and society that’s sustainable?

That's a tough one, because at today's levels of efficacy, you can't raid and plunder sustainably. Our neofeudal overlords, whose wealth and power derives from raiding and plundering, are just too good at what they do. It would take limiting wealth and power of individuals and corporations, but I bet they would manage to trigger a civil war over this.

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