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Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

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Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#91
post #3

> It remains to be seen whether the Olinia One will face similar pushback from the U.S. once it goes on sale. > can travel up to 125 kilometers (77 miles) on a single charge The US market generally rejects small-range EVs, except in very niche markets. In order to succeed in the US, it will need roughly 3-4x the range. In order for this to succeed in Mexico, their market will need different driving habits than the ty…

This new EV is to replace motorcycles and scooters that are ubiquitous in mexico. If it succeeds in getting 100k people off of motorcycles it will have the side benefit of reducing healthcare costs treating motorcycle accidents.

People don't choose motorcycles and scooters because they like them, it's because they're cheaper than cars.

This EV is much more expensive than a motorcycle or a scooter, so on that regard it is DOA.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#92
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is decimating our local car industry a problem? Why not build something else with the resources if cars are now a cheap commodity?

historically car manufacturing gets redirected into defense for wartime though it's unclear how that would pan out with today's factory specialization

Historically being WW2. I'm not sure they've contributed much to the "war effort" since then.

A legacy of WW2 was the explosion of the whole defence industry. While a lot of the civilian factories got repurposed in WW2 to build trucks and planes and ships, the tech in all that stuff was very basic. For example the aircraft carrier Yorktown was "fixed" (at least good enough for the Midway battle) in 3 days. I somehow doubt a modern carrier could do that, simply because of the tech required. The US built 150 more carriers in the next 3 years.

The defense industry today gets a trillion $ a year. There's no civilian ship-building to speak of, and military vehicles are now highly specialized.

So why keep Ford et al afloat? Politically it's sold as "national security." In reality it's like more "they didn't die on my watch." And of course, having the ability to make local affects the supply chain. [1]

For example if China invades Taiwan, the US loses pretty much all electronics- especially PCs and Phones. That's a lot of leverage for a foreign country to have.

[1] US cars aren't really local - that's a fiction exposed by the proposed tarif on "car parts", which the industry squashed. In reality car parts are made all over the place (including the US) , and then assembled in the US (or anywhere else.)

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#93

The Ford CEO is not wrong. Allowing foreign imports into the country at prices far below what US producers are able to make will decimate the local car industry in the US. There are 4 possible solutions to this problem; a) convince Americans that it's worth paying more for a locally built product. This is the simplest approach, but there's only so much margin here that the consumer will tolerate. At the moment this g…

> This is one of those "the internet is a fad, it'll never catch on" moments. EV's are here to stay. They're going to win. That's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. That's not clear at all from the long-term habits of American consumers. Why did Ford, GM, and Stellantis all cut EV investment and increase ICE investment in the last year then?

Short term buyer habits don't necessarily track technological progress - they tend to be resistent, then inertia is broken and consumers buy en-mass. Companies need to brunt to cost of innovation until the cost benefit analysis makes sense for consumers. Mobile phones were a passing fad for niche power users until companies threw so much money at them so they weren't, and we became reliant on carrying one. Same can be said for thousands of other products. Nobody used them until suddenly we all were.

We're seeing a moores-law-like improvement in electric cars and their power densities. If the American car manufacturers don't want to be a part of that progress, it's on them, but Asia and Europe will continue to innovate in that area and the US will be playing catch up because they're servicing what consumers want now, not what they will probably want in the future.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is one of those "the internet is a fad, it'll never catch on" moments. EV's are here to stay. Not saying you're one of them (there are other people here who fit the bill much better) but like with anything else the people on the internet peddling grand narratives lacking of nuance are delusional fanboys, malevolent liars or some combination of the two. EVs are absolutely going to win certain market segments and…

ICE -> EV is not a 30 year transition. I’d be surprised if there’s a consequential ICE industry after 2040 (that doesn’t mean there won’t be ICE cars being driven, just that they won’t be selling outside niche industries after 2040). The collapse of ICE vehicles will happen sooner rather than later due to a few fundamental reasons. - China has gone all in on EVs. It’s hard to compete against the Chinese and they’re u…

I agree with you, for the mass consumer car market (individual/family transport) as a whole. It's coming fast. However, the current EV technology (mostly batteries + charging) is not a good fit for a whole lot of edge cases, and in the aggregate they matter, too, and thus the ICE engine industry won't really go away anytime soon:

* General-purpose Semis for commercial hauling. Yes, there's some EV Semis on the road today - pilot projects, or specific routes on specific schedules. But there's a lot of general purpose semi-hauling that happens every day on odd/long routes without sufficient chargers in the right places, and they need much bigger chargers. And then there's the specialty semis that carry large/wide loads. I see them almost every day in my area, carrying large chunks of power substations, heavy manufacturing equipment, blades for wind turbines, etc.

* Fire trucks, Ambulances, Tow trucks, Police cars - For various similar reasons, it's tricky with some of these, although in well-constrained cases and with extra vehicles on tap as backup (when the other one is low on charge in an emergency), maybe can kinda work, eventually.

* "Personal" trucks that see heavy towing/hauling use (think: hauling a livestock trailer or farm equipment or heavy materials (or maybe an EV race car!), possibly long distances on a regular basis). The battery range really suffers when you put all the extra weight and drag on by towing, and people aren't willing to turn what was a 5 hour diesel trip into a 9 hour trip with supercharger stops (more time in the heat with animals, more time on the road in general, and do you have to disconnect the trailer just to reach the charge cable?)

* Backup generator ICE engines - home, datacenter, industrial use, etc. The problem here is mostly runtime and peak watts of output vs cost. You can use a battery-based solution for most of these cases, but it currently costs prohibitively more for the same performance specs. When they're being used in austere environments, sometimes there's no electric grid to even charge from, so slap on a massive solar array cost, too.

* All military use of ICE engines in general (transport, generators, etc) - Not insignificant in scope and scale, and obviously they're not going to run EVs or find chargers on battlefields.

These cases will diminish over time, especially as we continue to make advances in charging and especially battery technology, but it will probably take a few decades because there's science challenges, not just engineering ones. The military case might never go away.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The car is designed for urban settings and has a top speed of 50 kilometers (31 miles) per hour." I don't think range will be an issue at that speed tbh. Cool little transport but not really a "car" in the way we think of them.

> The car is designed for urban settings Huh, the speed limit is odd because in my urban/city driving in the western US (San Diego, LA, SF, Portland and Seattle) all major cities still basically necessitate non-zero highway driving. Even mopeds (and bicycles) can pretty easily exceed 31 mph. I've spent about 2 months total in Mexico City and there are still in-city areas where it'd be common to exceed 31 mph. The mai…

How many people do you know who can "easily" exceed 50 km/h on a bicycle?

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#96
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems to fill a useful niche, but may be too downscale. Remember the Tata Nano.[1] Tata built a basic car with a price below 1 lahk, but it didn't sell. In the US, there's Slate, which claims to be making a small electric pickup truck. "Preorders will start on June 24, 2026. First deliveries are slated for late 2026." [2] Price in the US$20K range, they claim. Claimed range is 150m with the base model battery. A…

Are we just ignoring data now? Giant pickups have silly sales- silly in the crazy high sense of the word. I love my EV but I have never wished for less range. The Slate is a toy for the wealthy, like kitted up Jeeps that have snorkels

If it shows up in the suggested price range, it's going to one of the least expensive new vehicles on the market.

Yes, it has less utility than many other vehicles in many ways, but the bed length (5 ft) is longer than a lot of trucks I see on the road which enables carrying certain kinds of loads that aren't easy in cars or trucks with very short beds as seems fashionable now.

150 miles isn't a ton of range, but it's 50% more than a first generation Leaf and those sold.

The Slate clearly isn't trying to check all the boxes, but every vehicle doesn't need to try to do everything.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#97

The Ford CEO is not wrong. Allowing foreign imports into the country at prices far below what US producers are able to make will decimate the local car industry in the US. There are 4 possible solutions to this problem; a) convince Americans that it's worth paying more for a locally built product. This is the simplest approach, but there's only so much margin here that the consumer will tolerate. At the moment this g…

Isn’t there a e) have investment at the federal level in R&D, specifically for industries that matter (economy, national security etc)? For automotive, China didn’t become the EV leader by accident. It was a deliberate national strategy, with funding to back it up. Yes there is cheaper labor, different regulations etc. But also in no small part to federal funding, investment in R&D etc. why are we surprised then that the US is in general falling behind?

The US could invest more in battery tech, manufacturing automation, robotics etc. This both lowers cost and increases product competitiveness.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#98

The Ford CEO is not wrong. Allowing foreign imports into the country at prices far below what US producers are able to make will decimate the local car industry in the US. There are 4 possible solutions to this problem; a) convince Americans that it's worth paying more for a locally built product. This is the simplest approach, but there's only so much margin here that the consumer will tolerate. At the moment this g…

> This is one of those "the internet is a fad, it'll never catch on" moments. EV's are here to stay. They're going to win. That's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. That's not clear at all from the long-term habits of American consumers. Why did Ford, GM, and Stellantis all cut EV investment and increase ICE investment in the last year then?

Because they are focused on short term returns, not long-term strategy.

In the short term cutting r&d, killing off "not yet profitable" lines etc all lead to improved results this quarter. Who cares about 5 years, or 10 years from now?

If you look beyond the US then you see EV market share growing year on year. Yes, the US is resisting hard, but you can't hold back the tide forever.

Kodak invented digital photography, but kept going with film. In the end the world moved on, even if they didn't.

50 years from now ICE will be a niche market. And if US producers want to own that niche, well that's great. But it'll be a tiny fraction of what they are now.

Re: Mexican government unveils a prototype for a new homegrown, ultra-affordable EV

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The playbook to study is South Korea. Protectionism and subsidies for nascent and transitioning industries with a clear ex ante timeline to full liberalization to force international competitiveness. Absent the latter, American car companies’ inefficiencies in design and labour structure have zero incentive to change, and American consumers get stuck with shitty, expensive products. For cars, this would mean federall…

I feel like the "clear ex ante timeline" is a big problem for us in the US. A prominent feature of US politics (and indeed culture) is constantly setting such targets and then chickening out and moving the target back as the time approaches. That in turn creates a sort of moral hazard where no one feels an urgency to meet deadlines because they know they'll be loosened up later.

Hmm, maybe a carrot with liberalization? Tax benefits to the car companies come to mind. But I’m almost more of a fan of creating a monetary incentive for the lenders with the federal guarantees—if the liberalization gets delayed or derailed, they lose money.
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