> The only possible conclusion is that it’s designed to cause panic.
Really? That's the only possible conclusion?
Anthropic has _always_ positioned itself as a company that cares about AI safety.
The Doom Justifies the Valuation
81–90 of 161 posts
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#82Earlier quoted context omitted.
> NFTs and the Metaverse AI is not that bad
It's significantly worse! All NFTs did was separate fools from their money, and crypto in general increased GPU costs. All the Metaverse did was cause Facebook to throw away a bunch of money (lol). Meanwhile, AI has ruined the whole Internet and inflated the price of everything electronic.
AI is actually useful, in the strict sense. It can do things. If you consider its eventual effects good or bad for humanity is fair either way, but it's still different from NFTs or the "metaverse" nonsense. It's a categorically different thing.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#83If you look at Anthropic's blogs about their model timelines, there is roughly a ~3m period between a model being in internal preview until release. That means that inside of Anthropic, the next version beyond Mythos/Fable is already in preview, already being tested internally. Despite what Geohot is describing here about GLM, my understanding is that Anthropic employees have spent a significant amount of time grappl…
If the March leak of Claude Code was Mythos / Fable in preview ... I'm not sure I'm that worried about AI capabilities. Seriously -- if you dig through that source code, and then listen to the messaging, it seems hard to keep a straight face. Also, hasn't this company been claiming that almost all their code is written with AI for significantly longer than "post-Mythos internal preview"?
Claude code is a very small fraction of the code written by Anthropic and ultimately, despite being widely used, hardly dents Anthropic’s core priority of LLM performance.
It’s because Anthropic doesn’t publish any of its core AI research that we falsely believe that it isn’t by far the central focus of the majority of the team.
Just to be clear, I’m not supporting their stance nor defending the company. I consider it to be deeply harmful that a private company seeks to advocate for AI safety but then own all the means of production and profit financially from keeping its techniques secret. It’s as if the Manhattan project resulted in a for-profit company selling all atomic technology and deciding on its use.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#84Somehow the Chinese phrases 内卷 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neijuan and 摆烂 ("let it rot" https://zh-yue.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%93%BA%E7%88%9B ) are quite appropriately used, even in stylistic tone. Don't know how much Chinese geohot actually speaks but it's a nice touch.
"Involution" is spot on.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#85Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the March leak of Claude Code was Mythos / Fable in preview ... I'm not sure I'm that worried about AI capabilities. Seriously -- if you dig through that source code, and then listen to the messaging, it seems hard to keep a straight face. Also, hasn't this company been claiming that almost all their code is written with AI for significantly longer than "post-Mythos internal preview"?
Claude code is a very small fraction of the code written by Anthropic and ultimately, despite being widely used, hardly dents Anthropic’s core priority of LLM performance. It’s because Anthropic doesn’t publish any of its core AI research that we falsely believe that it isn’t by far the central focus of the majority of the team. Just to be clear, I’m not supporting their stance nor defending the company. I consider i…
I see, thanks for clarification -- where does one find the LoC comparing Claude to human written? Interesting if that's available publicly.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
> NFTs and the Metaverse AI is not that bad
It's significantly worse! All NFTs did was separate fools from their money, and crypto in general increased GPU costs. All the Metaverse did was cause Facebook to throw away a bunch of money (lol). Meanwhile, AI has ruined the whole Internet and inflated the price of everything electronic.
Let's not forget that the inevitable AI crash will nerf even supposedely "diversified" broad market ETFs due to BigTech's insanely inflated valuations and the index gaming of the X, OAI, and Ant IPOs.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#87I have never understood this line of thinking. Why would a company warn that their technology is dangerous if it wasn't? Looking at the ongoing Mythos export control issue, it's obviously not good for profits. If you assume AGI is possible, you must agree that it would be at the very least profoundly destabilizing. The companies are built around this assumption.
Because it makes them feel important because they are developing something so dangerous everyone else ought to listen to what they say.
It's about ego, not profits.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#88I have never understood this line of thinking. Why would a company warn that their technology is dangerous if it wasn't? Looking at the ongoing Mythos export control issue, it's obviously not good for profits. If you assume AGI is possible, you must agree that it would be at the very least profoundly destabilizing. The companies are built around this assumption.
I agree. There are 2 groups of people: 1. Those, like OP, that believe AI danger and disruption is all hype to boost valuations. 2. Those, like myself, that believe AI danger and disruption is very real and presents dilemmas (but also opportunities) for society, so we must tread carefully. The first position is not logically consistent with reality. The danger is real: we have already seen hints about how this will i…
I don't think the first position is steel manned by assuming those holding it actually believe there are no potential problems or ways to use the technology badly.
But that belief does not imply the doom rhetoric is necessary or the best way to approach those issues.
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#89Somehow the Chinese phrases 内卷 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neijuan and 摆烂 ("let it rot" https://zh-yue.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%93%BA%E7%88%9B ) are quite appropriately used, even in stylistic tone. Don't know how much Chinese geohot actually speaks but it's a nice touch.
The English article for "let it rot" (or a related phrase) seems to be here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tang_ping
Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation
#90There are a few possible explanations of Dario and Anthropic's behavior, if you are not sure if all they want is pump up the valuation like me:
- Anthropic has a cult-like culture. AI Safety is their religion. The AI Constitution is their bible. Dario is their cult leader. Employees are the apostles. They just really really believe their church, and only Dario is qualified to manage the AI safety.
- Asymmetrical risk. If Dario speaks optimistically about AI and he turns out to be wrong, he'd face the rage of many people. If he fans the doomerism of AI and he turns out to be wrong, at most he will be mocked.
- Regulatory capture. After all, pretty much all the AI big shots in Biden government went to Anthropic. They produced the Biden's regulation, and they made it clear that they wanted to pick a few winners to back.