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The Doom Justifies the Valuation

geohot.github.io

51–60 of 161 posts

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NFTs and the Metaverse AI is not that bad

It's significantly worse! All NFTs did was separate fools from their money, and crypto in general increased GPU costs. All the Metaverse did was cause Facebook to throw away a bunch of money (lol). Meanwhile, AI has ruined the whole Internet and inflated the price of everything electronic.

so, twitter went from 98% shit to 99% shit, and landfills get less smartphones; I'd say it's worth it

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#52
post #29
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[dead]

Regardless of whether you believe in doom or not, it's this kind of wild, willful misunderstanding that makes people roll their eyes and dismiss you. Yes, people at Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter!) really, genuinely do believe AI poses a potential existential threat to humanity; every single one that I know personally believes that. This has been pointed out hundreds of times, and to simply dismiss it as mark…

people at Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter!) really, genuinely do believe

The same could have been said (and has been said) about other tech company employees for all sorts of other reasons in alignment with those companies' goals. Don't you remember how much people used to laugh at Tesla employees for worshipping Elon Musk as some kind of god of engineering and entrepreneurial genius? Or Apple employees in the Steve Jobs reality distortion field?

I would have thought at this point that it'd be well known that the employees of all cult-like tech companies can't be trusted to make a sober evaluation of their companies' justified valuation. We can talk about conflicts of interest and we'd barely be getting started! How about biased selection by hiring managers for the most fervent believers in the company's mission from the get-go?

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#53
HN is not immune to this. I do not take HN seriously, because empirically so many takes across so many subjects have been wrong in a melodramatic fashion and the “adults”, often people with training and first hand experience have to show up to set the subject matter right before someone gets hurt. But as a barometer of unhinged hype? Only X is comparable.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#54
Great article. Holtz is growing on me ngl…

The SFBA culture has given me the ick for a while now. Anyone who has done web development in the last few years is inevitably exposed to it. Idk how to describe it without breaking the rules of the site so I’ll just say nothing.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#55
post #45
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No; I'm only stating that your model of reality is off, and I'm correcting it. No, the folks at the frontier labs do not believe they are trying to scam people with an NFT-tier fraud, and their warnings are not an attempt at marketing hype.

[flagged]

Their usual stance is something along the lines of their company is creating AI correctly--not that AI will inherently destroy humanity--and that them working there helps that end. It's extremely reasonable to question their approach, but here you've jumped from "NFT crypto bros trying to run a scam" to "monsters excited to annihilate the human race," which is a wild leap, and betrays a point of view that seems more driven by anti-AI psychosis than consideration of any evidence.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#56
> Remember when everyone died during COVID? And when we finally ended racism during DEI? Can someone write an AI 2027 (...)

Oh no, the obvious strawmans that - despite the author's assertions - people did not actually widely believe in, were strawmans? Crazy, I tell you. It'd seem that people aren't actually as dumb as the author likes to characterize them being.

Sure love this genre of writing. It's a beautifully revealing tour de force in projection and narcissism. "Will somebody please think for all the fools who believe in the obvious nonsense I secretly fear?"

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI Agents experts you mean loop engineers?

I think they are trying to express that everyone and their brother is now an expert in AI. But everyone was already a decorated expert with decades of hands on "AI" experience by the summer of 2023. So "experts in agentic AI" is just the continuation of that trend.

I was trying to be funny

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#58
post #52
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of whether you believe in doom or not, it's this kind of wild, willful misunderstanding that makes people roll their eyes and dismiss you. Yes, people at Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter!) really, genuinely do believe AI poses a potential existential threat to humanity; every single one that I know personally believes that. This has been pointed out hundreds of times, and to simply dismiss it as mark…

people at Anthropic (and OpenAI, for that matter!) really, genuinely do believe The same could have been said (and has been said) about other tech company employees for all sorts of other reasons in alignment with those companies' goals. Don't you remember how much people used to laugh at Tesla employees for worshipping Elon Musk as some kind of god of engineering and entrepreneurial genius? Or Apple employees in the…

Sure; they might be caught in their own hype cycle. I am pointing out that the repeated claims in this thread (and by Geohot, ironically enough) that they are NFT crypto bros running a scam is incorrect.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#59
post #18

I have never understood this line of thinking. Why would a company warn that their technology is dangerous if it wasn't? Looking at the ongoing Mythos export control issue, it's obviously not good for profits. If you assume AGI is possible, you must agree that it would be at the very least profoundly destabilizing. The companies are built around this assumption.

It’s the same narrative as “the communists are developing nukes so we need to develop first”.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#60
If you look at Anthropic's blogs about their model timelines, there is roughly a ~3m period between a model being in internal preview until release. That means that inside of Anthropic, the next version beyond Mythos/Fable is already in preview, already being tested internally. Despite what Geohot is describing here about GLM, my understanding is that Anthropic employees have spent a significant amount of time grappling with a technology that is considerably ahead of what is available to the public today.

In addition, if you look at the graph of LOC written by Claude vs Ants (I.e. AI vs human), there is an incredibly sharp uptick post-Mythos internal preview. Something like from 30% to 75% of code inside the company being written by AI.

While I sympathize with the viewpoint here, I still have to admit that that there's a very different feeling to working inside of a company where they've had months of time with a model that's at the frontier, quickly changing the way everyone around them works, and that _they themselves_ control the keys to.

If Geohot had those keys, I can be 100% confident he'd be raising the alarm at the top of his lungs about it.

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