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The Doom Justifies the Valuation

geohot.github.io

11–20 of 161 posts

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#12
post #3

Simple minds want to believe one simple thing and then rationalize everything else to force consistency with that one simple idea. If you want to believe the simple idea that AI is mostly hype, then you'll get stuck in a multi-year loop talking about stochastic parrots, ridiculous valuations, and doomer scaredycats. But the real world isn't so simple. Multiple seemingly contradictory things can be true at the same ti…

I love this website because people will write stuff like “I believe the hype because my brain is big, ‘believing the hype’ is actually very complex and cannot be embraced by lesser intellects”

"I cannot be contradicted because I can hold conflicting viewpoints" was Chomsky's bit, HN can only take credit for imitating it.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#13

Even if Dario and Altman originally believed what they were saying, their scaretactics worked wonders for investment. Their companies are now incredibly incentivized to keep the AI Apocalypse narrative going further and further. It is hard to imagine them stopping, as that may lose them investment. The last 10 years have been a decade of Big Tech Vaporware. NFTs and the Metaverse were assured to be the future. Once t…

> NFTs and the Metaverse

AI is not that bad

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#14
post #7

I stopped taking this guy seriously after he proposed "just" digging canals to bring desalinated ocean water into the U.S. desert.

Even in this article, he claims COVID wasn’t a big deal because, essentially, only a million people died in the US instead of everyone. No one ever claimed 100% mortality.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#15

Even if Dario and Altman originally believed what they were saying, their scaretactics worked wonders for investment. Their companies are now incredibly incentivized to keep the AI Apocalypse narrative going further and further. It is hard to imagine them stopping, as that may lose them investment. The last 10 years have been a decade of Big Tech Vaporware. NFTs and the Metaverse were assured to be the future. Once t…

> will finally fracture.

If true, it will only be replaced with something else. With what is anyone’s guess.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#16
What's the evidence that the doom narrative is connected to valuations? It seems more like a marketing/recruiting strategy. As the post points out, institutional investors generally think the idea of mass unemployment is BS, and they are investing accordingly.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#17

Even if Dario and Altman originally believed what they were saying, their scaretactics worked wonders for investment. Their companies are now incredibly incentivized to keep the AI Apocalypse narrative going further and further. It is hard to imagine them stopping, as that may lose them investment. The last 10 years have been a decade of Big Tech Vaporware. NFTs and the Metaverse were assured to be the future. Once t…

> NFTs and the Metaverse AI is not that bad

It's significantly worse! All NFTs did was separate fools from their money, and crypto in general increased GPU costs. All the Metaverse did was cause Facebook to throw away a bunch of money (lol).

Meanwhile, AI has ruined the whole Internet and inflated the price of everything electronic.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#18
I have never understood this line of thinking. Why would a company warn that their technology is dangerous if it wasn't? Looking at the ongoing Mythos export control issue, it's obviously not good for profits. If you assume AGI is possible, you must agree that it would be at the very least profoundly destabilizing. The companies are built around this assumption.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#19
>>SF wants to come for your inner life and pimp you out and mediate every interaction and there’s not even a so.

I have been saying this for a while. I visited SF a couple months ago and god do people feel empty from the inside. Everything is revolving around AI this and AI that. Half of these people were not paying attention when we were training gradient boost models and now all of these people are 'AI Agents experts'.

Re: The Doom Justifies the Valuation

#20
Journalism and public media in general needs to be a licensed profession with tangible standards, and malpractice suits should be pursued aggressively.

Would solve a lot of problems in the US, actually. Being financially incentivized to gleefully lie and spread misinformation at the expense of others should not be protected speech.

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