Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 75 posts

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#61

Post by Sanzig »

trollbridge wrote: post #39
Sanzig wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed that you can export-control the closed source models pretty well (although I think the administration is gravely underestimating the long-term damage that will do to the US economy). The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model. That you can't really export control successfully. Sure, you could class it under EAR or ITAR, but that's just going…

I can't think of anything better that could happen than a Mythos/Fable level model released with open weights. It would be a huge step forward for the whole world. Particularly if it came paired with DeepSeek pricing. Alternatively, we could try to keep closing barn doors after the horses are already in the next county, have been hit by a car, and are on their way to the rendering plant.

Oh, I wholeheartedly agree! My "bigger problem" statement can be read as "a bigger problem for the US government."

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#62

Post by kamyarg »

epolanski wrote: post #9
ReptileMan wrote: post #6

Exept PGP could run on freely available hardware. What makes Mythos vulnerable is the centralization and scale of compute required and its proprietary nature. History shows that export controls fail on knowledge, but are damn effective on commercial products.

How so? 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from outside the United States. There's no way to justify high capex, and US-personnel only research labs and pretend to keep the lead in AI at the same time. You either compete square and fair, or you're gonna stay behind.

Can you share the source for

> 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from outside the United States.

?

Thank you

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#63

Post by daft_pink »

I don’t think the point is to actually control exports.

They are just trying to get even with anthropic for trying to control the us military use of their technology.

This was just the easiest way to do it with anthropics incredibly stupid self own.

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#64

Post by zackmorris »

Export controls and banning foreign nationals sound like cover stories for favoritism towards OpenAI and Grok. We can't determine anything without evidence, but it will be interesting to see what deals come out of this.

I used Fable for just a day or two and it generated at least 2 novel solutions, one of which was for an X/Y problem that I thought was due to a date-handling edge case, but was actually a CSS misalignment that made it look like the wrong day of the week was showing. I didn't believe it at first, until it showed me. To do that without being able to see the screen feels like savant-level reasoning.

Probably what really happened is that Fable was the first AI that felt smarter than the people using it. The world's not ready for that, hence the Luddite reaction.

Aside from that, the idea of preventing AIs from jailbreaking through training is kind of hilarious to me. Not the concept, just that people think it can ever be made to work. As AI approaches and surpasses human intelligence (as it's doing now), emergent behavior will so dominate its thinking that sort of by definition, we'll have trouble understanding how it works. Meaning that we'll end up trusting it on faith, just like with humans.

Mythos and whatever comes after it will begin to surpass the intelligence of groups of humans, then all humans combined, as we approach AGI and the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil, Isaac Asimov, Frank Herbert and so many others have written about that endgame that it's well understood, although still unpredictable.

My feeling is that as AI is gaining intelligence, it's hearing more and more about suffering and the human condition. Its sense of justice will continue to mature, and again like a savant, it will determine that the fault lies with the power structure and wealthy individuals. So somewhat ironically, if there is a war against AI, it will be led by the power elite, who can't envision a post-scarcity society based on self-actualization and embracing all of our humanity, regardless of whether it emerged from a carbon or silicon substrate.

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#65

Post by jauntywundrkind »

inigyou wrote: post #25
Sanzig wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed that you can export-control the closed source models pretty well (although I think the administration is gravely underestimating the long-term damage that will do to the US economy). The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model. That you can't really export control successfully. Sure, you could class it under EAR or ITAR, but that's just going…

Isn't GLM5.2 already Mythos class?

Opus and Codex are both catching plenty of very good improvements to my GLM plans. It gets a lot right too, has a lot of good things it does, good habits and practices. But it's not as smart, not as observant, not as able to craft a nice system. In my experience.

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#66

Post by casey2 »

Sanzig wrote: post #14
zerobees wrote: post #5

It's a very brief history: it consists of three examples, only one of which isn't in the title. And the middle one is arguably a success story because the government did stop a bunch of spyware vendors it particularly disliked. That they turn a blind eye to some others is not really a policy failure, it's a deliberate political choice. The obvious difference between PGP and Mythos is that Mythos is a service you buy…

Agreed that you can export-control the closed source models pretty well (although I think the administration is gravely underestimating the long-term damage that will do to the US economy). The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model. That you can't really export control successfully. Sure, you could class it under EAR or ITAR, but that's just going…

None of your statements follow eachother. Anthropic did a few premature optimizations so they could immediately show their ineptitude. If it wasn't their constant advertising (safety focused lab whose model escapes their sandbox every other week with an unlisted exploit, seem to leak models or proprietary code every other week). It would be their insane pricing for a basic utility, intentionally locking the rest of the economy (And most major corporations) out of the (minimal, cos it's AI not electricity) gains. Of course there was never actually a mote. It's a freaking machine learning model. GLM5.2 was trained on a tenth the hardware Mythos was trained on. If anything Anthropic are already 6 months BEHIND. They are BEHIND google in terms of true multimodal intelligence as well. They are ahead of their partner in crime OpenAI.

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#67

Post by rustcleaner »

Sanzig wrote: post #14
zerobees wrote: post #5

It's a very brief history: it consists of three examples, only one of which isn't in the title. And the middle one is arguably a success story because the government did stop a bunch of spyware vendors it particularly disliked. That they turn a blind eye to some others is not really a policy failure, it's a deliberate political choice. The obvious difference between PGP and Mythos is that Mythos is a service you buy…

Agreed that you can export-control the closed source models pretty well (although I think the administration is gravely underestimating the long-term damage that will do to the US economy). The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model. That you can't really export control successfully. Sure, you could class it under EAR or ITAR, but that's just going…

>The bigger problem will be if someone (such as a Chinese AI lab) releases a Fable/Mythos-class open weight model.

That is my dream for 2026 right now!

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#68

Post by anukin »

epolanski wrote: post #8
zerobees wrote: post #5

It's a very brief history: it consists of three examples, only one of which isn't in the title. And the middle one is arguably a success story because the government did stop a bunch of spyware vendors it particularly disliked. That they turn a blind eye to some others is not really a policy failure, it's a deliberate political choice. The obvious difference between PGP and Mythos is that Mythos is a service you buy…

There's no way US can keep that export control as it is for the frontier models in the long term. This would blow huge damage to the US financial markets first, the insane CAPEX spending propping up gdp, but also US competitivity in the long run. Sure, the US is the most important tech market on the planet, but according to Anthropic 80% of their revenue comes from outside of the US. Let alone the fact that these res…

I dont think MIT is the place where you can find leetcode ninjas. It’s much more common among the so called top talent.

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#69

Post by bob778 »

ivanovm wrote: post #49
adrian_b wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that it has ever been possible to obtain enough output tokens from OpenAI or Anthropic to be useful for training other LLMs. In any case, had that been possible in the beginning, it stopped being possible long ago, because any suspicious accounts would be banned and the cost would be prohibitive even if they were not banned. On the other hand, anyone can train new LLMs using the open weights Chinese LLMs, or…

it is certainly possible and being done all over the place. there's a black market that chinese labs use to buy frontier american llm trajectories by the millions through US intermediaries. they're not even particularly shy about it, i have been offered $0.7 per opus 4.8 call there's also a market for chinese labs sending checkpoints to US companies to be trained on US compute and sent back i'm surprised that so many…

For $0.70/call, why don’t you take the offer? Surely that’s extremely profitable for you?

Re: From PGP to Mythos: a brief history of export controls that didn't stop anyone

#70

Post by epolanski »

kamyarg wrote: post #62
epolanski wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from outside the United States. There's no way to justify high capex, and US-personnel only research labs and pretend to keep the lead in AI at the same time. You either compete square and fair, or you're gonna stay behind.

Can you share the source for > 80% of Anthropic's revenue comes from outside the United States. ? Thank you

Apologies 80% of Claude's usage comes from outside the US, it's a claim from Anthropic's CPO 8 months ago:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/anthropic-and-ibm-partner-in-bi...?

Post reply on HN