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Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

bluewin.ch

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Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#791
post #723

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel the same frustration but for the opposite reason. I am entirely confident you must be misinformed, not me. I suggest you read actual bookkeeping statements from nuclear operators, national budget items, historical records about radiation incidents, nuclear deposits, agreement texts and the like, instead of reading books that can only be true if they adhere to the information in such sources. - nuclear power is…

I am not sure you have actually closely read what I have said. Early nuclear builds were cheaper to build: https://gordianknotbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/essay... Spent fuel is mostly reusable: https://gordianknotbook.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/gordi... Low-dose radiation risk is a contested harm: https://jackdevanney.substack.com/p/the-two-lies-that-killed... And no, solar is NOT free..............

>I am not sure you have actually closely read what I have said.

I am very familiar with the arguments you link to, they are repeated often in these discussions but they don't hold up to scrutiny.

The key mistake for most of these arguments is that nuclear waste is harmless and nuclear plants are safe on their own and don't need to be kept safe at great costs.

Any argument that rests on that idea is not going to hold up.

Just to take one example - one argument presented is basically that nuclear waste only requires a few acres of land where you can place dry casks, then you're good.

Try to find actual scientific and financial support for that idea from anyone else than the author.

>Early nuclear builds were cheaper to build:

Early cars were too, for many of the same reasons. Lower wages, worse quality, less safety.

>Spent fuel is mostly reusable:

How do you handle it while it is being reused? Does it become harmless after being reused or do we still need to deal with it for longer than the US has existed as a nation?

>Low-dose radiation risk is a contested harm:

Low-dose is not what we're talking about here. A kilo of nuclear waste in a van filled with fertilizer is not a contested harm, it's a nightmare scenario.

>And no, solar is NOT free

Building is not free of course but it has no running costs once built.

Nuclear has immense running costs, and they can't be stopped entirely. Even after it has been decommissioned and the company who made the plant has gone bankrupt it keeps costing society money.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#792

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you trust that any of today's politicians will not be poor at nuclear reactor design and management? As someone who lives in Ontario, Canada, where 50% of all electricity currently comes from nuclear power: * https://www.ieso.ca/power-data?type=supply I have no problem with getting more CANDU reactors (which is the current plan).

As an Ontarian, I love CANDU. As an Ontarian, the thought of spending $500B on a couple of reactors makes me furious. Ontario is not going to become competitive again with the most expensive electricity in the world.

Ontario nuclear is cheaper than Ontario solar and wind (Table 2):

* https://fao-on.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Nuclear-Refurb...

Until a few years ago it was cheaper than methane/natural gas:

* https://www.oeb.ca/sites/default/files/rpp-price-report-2023...

At least when it comes to refurbishment, the independent (reports to provincial parliament) FAO found:

> Overall, despite near-term Nuclear Price increases, the Plan is projected to provide ratepayers with a long-term supply of relatively low-cost, low emissions electricity.

* https://fao-on.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Nuclear-Refurb...

Their projections go to 2064.

New-nuclear is worthy of discussion, but given we have stood up supply chains via the refurbishment process, there's a lot of knowledge out there. My current largest complaint with the new-nuclear plans is the SMRs.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#793

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last time Ontario built CANDU’s the utility went into bankruptcy and the taxpayers still haven’t paid off that debt.

Ontario Hydro did not go bankrupt. It was broken up into "constituent" components in 1998, and the a lot of the nuclear plant construction financing debt didn't fit neatly into any one of them, so a separate legal entity was created: Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation (OEFC). Ratepayers pay their electrical bills, the money goes to local utilities and entities like OPG and Hydro One, which in turn pay OEFC. Th…

It was a government owned utility, it couldn’t go bankrupt in the traditional sense since it has taxpayer backing.

But its finances were completely underwater with no way out due to the debt from nuclear construction.

After the breakup the public were left with $38B in debt from nuclear construction. Which the subsequent nuclear company was unable to pay off, or it would of course not have been restructured.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#794

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the EPR builds in Finland/France/UK have seen enormous construction cost (3-4x) and time (decade+) overruns. France expects its EPR2 builds to cost about 30% less but even if they manage to hit that target it will still be extremely expensive.

Indeed, it might be said that they underestimated the cost and timescales to get the project off the ground. But this is generally the case with mega-projects. Guess we shall see how the construction of Sizewell C goes.

Isn't Sizewell c already delayed?

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#795
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you trust that any of today's politicians will not be poor at nuclear reactor design and management?

No, but they aren't the ones designing them. Politicians normally aren't engineers.

Do you trust today's politicians to hire competent engineers?

Do you trust today's politicians to provide all the money the engineers ask for?

Besides an engineering problem, they are also a political problem for as long as they exist, and even longer. Remember how Russia bombed Chernobyl in the Ukraine war?

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did waste management become a solved problem? In Colorado they shut down their last reactor (a very modern, at the time, thorium unit) in 1989 and there is still tons of waste product onsite since Yucca mountain was the designated target for it and it never came online. It's in a river basin and the containment facility is supposedly insanely robust (can withstand 300mph winds, etc..) but it's still there and I think…

From what I understand the waste problem is tremendously overblown. Move it to some storage facility somewhere, that's fine. Just keep it on site, that's fine too. A typical gigawatt reactor produces about 20 tons of waste annually, which sounds like a lot but remember this stuff is quite dense, so it would actually take 4 years to fill up a standard shipping container. The storage units for this stuff is incredibly…

If you assume a continuous chain of custody for the next 10000 years, it's pretty trivial, but how do you make that happen? It's beyond all known technology. So you can't.

When Russia bombs that facility, how big will the exclusion zone be? At some point in the next 10000 years, it's not unlikely, it's not likely, it's guaranteed that there will be a war, and the facility will be bombed, or the custodians will be drafted or will just move to the city looking for work, and the nuclear post will be left abandoned (remember Russia's RTGs?), or the descendants will pass the wrong care instructions on to their descendants, and then the containers will rust and start leaching into the water supply. As long as you have a country with operating nuclear reactors you probably have all the infrastructure to keep waste safe. What when you don't?

Imagine that literally, not metaphorically, the devil came to earth in the time of the Neanderthals, destroyed almost everything, and some heroic Neanderthals managed to seal him in a box. If the box isn't taken care of the devil can break out again. Do we still have those care instructions? Is anyone executing them? There are religions from hundreds of years ago (not as long as needed!) which say you must do something or the world ends. We consider them all fairy stories, and they probably are. What if one wasn't? Then we'd be fucked because we wouldn't be following the instructions, right? Nuclear waste storage would be in that bucket.

At least the fallout will be localized. You're not destroying the world with careless handling of nuclear waste. You may make a limited region uninhabitable for thousands of years, and detectably reduce global lifespans by a few years and increase cancer rates by a few percent.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the EPR builds in Finland/France/UK have seen enormous construction cost (3-4x) and time (decade+) overruns. France expects its EPR2 builds to cost about 30% less but even if they manage to hit that target it will still be extremely expensive.

Indeed, it might be said that they underestimated the cost and timescales to get the project off the ground. But this is generally the case with mega-projects. Guess we shall see how the construction of Sizewell C goes.

Hopefully not how the yet unfinished Hinkley Point C is going.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#798

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems clearly not very true; Iran didn’t seem very at the mercy of the US this year. There is a ton of resistance to actually using nuclear weapons, seemingly making them practically irrelevant.

Venezuela was. North Korea doesn't seem to be. Nukes are one of the differences between the two nations. Iran was literally attacked and bombed. Seriously doubt that would have happened if they had nukes.

North Korea has China, Venezuela has no one.

Meanwhile the other day Moscow was struck by a significant number of drones and most likely it's not the last of such strikes.

Either Russia doesn't actually have nuclear weapons or they don't mean much in the grand scheme of things.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#799

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is the other option, and cherry picking the most generous data from a deindustrialised economy is a far less meaningful metric than you seem to think. I wish people like you, who care genuinely about this topic, would engage with it in a more holistic way. * Removing fossil fuels requires massively increasing the grid capacity by electrifying a vast range of extraction, refining, and manufacturing processes.…

> The grid data you are looking at is about 1/5 of the real energy economy It's weird for somebody who says they want nuclear power to bring this up - have you been playing too much Fallout ? The two big non-electrical energy demands are transport and heating, which not only are being electrified already, they're also places where electrification is a net energy win, so that diesel or natural gas power translates int…

I've never played fallout, and this isn't a game for me. I do have an electrical engineering degree, have read dozens of textbooks on (renewable) power generation, thermodynamics and manufacturing, and have spent significant time helping a research group with simulations of solar hybridised biomass gasification (mostly for Fischer Tropsch biofuels). The scale of electrification is huge, make no mistake, and we'll be dependent on either nuclear or coal/gas for the next 50+ years.

> The two big non-electrical energy demands are transport ..

A large fraction of transport is not amenable to electrification in this manner; however transport is the low hanging fruit and I support the rapid electrification of transport where possible. Unlike batteries for cars, generation of biofuels/hydrogen for airplanes/ships/heavy trucks will not be significantly more efficient than fossil fuels - it likely will consume more energy, not less. The fossil fuel technologies are already very efficient (50%+) and renewable alternatives are very inefficient. It is possible to electrify/solarise these processes in the long term, but also complicated and capital intensive. I have worked on technoeconomic simulations of such processes, where I learned first-hand from expert researchers in this field (though I am not a chemical engineer).

> .. and heating. For heat it just comes down to heat pumps

This is not true at all, and you've likely misunderstood what heating means in energy breakdowns.

Heat pumps are most suitable for low temperature heat - municipal heating, (industrial) cooking, etc. Things which are already largely electrified in developed countries. But low temperature heat is widely available as a downstream by-product of higher temperature processes (including power generation as in CHP), and it is there a low priority in the scheme of things.

Heat pumps are not feasible (nor are they even theoretically very efficient) for high temperature industrial processes, of which there are a great many (concrete, bricks, metal processing, plastics and other chemical processing, etc). Many of these processes are already practically 100% efficient, so electrification will use at least the same amount of energy. A factory may use for example a steam turbine with a mere 5% electrical efficiency - the high temp steam is used to heat a chemical reactor, and the small electrical output is used for pumps, etc.

Finally, the direct combustion of fuels, (often bundled under 'heating' in stats), also includes the use of fossil fuels as a chemical reagent, primarily carbothermal reduction of metals (plus many petrochemical processing reactions). This usage is highly efficient, and cannot be replaced with electricity directly. Alternative processes will likely consume more energy not less - there will be additional intermediate processes, separations, and so on, likely requiring melting/dissolving/reacting the materials at high temperatures.

Re: Swiss parliament lifts ban on new nuclear power plants

#800

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The linear no threshold model is not supported by actual evidence. More accurate models include Linear-Quadratic (LQ) Model Threshold Model Hormesis model The linear no-threshold model is less realistic than threshold or hormesis-based models: An evolutionary perspective https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000927971... "They removed the "as low as reasonably possible" design goal which means it's now a…

Sounds like it wasn't reasonably possible?

It wasn't reasonably affordable!
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