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Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

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Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#41

Post by fc417fc802 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #18
fc417fc802 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're what, 2 years in? Or 6 months since the coding models became reasonably proficient. No one knows what AI will look like 6 months from now let alone 5 years so the present jobs data can't tell you anything other than that nothing catastrophic has happened yet .

> No one knows what AI will look like 6 months No, but we know what it’s looked like over the past 6 months. We also have two years of Altman preening about imminent, massive job losses. Per his own timelines, those haven’t manifested. Predicting indeterminate catastrophe isn’t a prediction, it’s a scam.

Agreed but the converse is also true. Predicting that everything will be sunshine and rainbows merely because the sky hasn't fallen yet doesn't pass the sniff test.

> we know what it’s looked like over the past 6 months.

Oddly I seem to interpret that in the opposite manner that you do. The output became noticeably more cohesive sometime around the new year although it certainly still has plenty of shortcomings.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#42

Post by wiseowise »

satvikpendem wrote: post #20
wiseowise wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s make it clear right away: none of them are building a “hit app”. Maybe one in a million does, but it’s the same as winning a lottery. TikTok grifters will just siphon commission for the video and move on. It’s a clear MLM, you can see it with peptides too.

Selling to desperation is not the same as an MLM. TikTok grifters don't expect their watchers to then go out and grift on TikTok themselves while giving the original person a cut, there are no levels to this sort of grift, as would be required in a multi level marketing scheme.

They absolutely do, you’re just looking at the leafs of the tree.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#43

Post by badgersnake »

petesergeant wrote: post #40

> Vibe-coded software is simply not good It doesn't fucking matter to the success of a business. I spent much of my early career unfucking large codebases that had been thrown together by sysadmins or teenagers or HTML guys who knew a bit of Perl on which an enterprising person had built very, very successful businesses. The software got fixed by pros long after profitability when it started to matter. There are very…

It matters when all your data ends up on pastebin.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#44

Post by petesergeant »

We need a form people can fill out:

    > I don't like LLMs because:
    >
    > [ ] They steal from artists
    > [ ] They're destroying the planet
    > etc
Instead of these articles, just tick the boxes. Only write the article if there aren't ten repeating the same points over and over again. Are there any HN readers who aren't intimately familiar with the problems associated with LLMs?

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#45

Post by ElProlactin »

wayne-werwolf wrote: post #27
sobiolite wrote: post #2

The analogy to MLM doesn’t work. In a pyramid scheme, early investors are guaranteed money, whereas late investors are guaranteed losses. With a vibe-coding platform, everyone has the same (extremely low) odds of building a hit app, so is at least more equitable in that sense.

I think the point the author is trying to convey, is that they are similar to MLM schemes in that they profit off of peoples hopes and dreams. Altough there are MLMs that are pure pyramid schemes, there are some where it is also not impossible to earn some money with it. Their products do not even have to be downright bad or fake. Having read Daniel Kahneman, I suppose with (economic) desperation people become especi…

> I think the point the author is trying to convey, is that they are similar to MLM schemes in that they profit off of peoples hopes and dreams

Every scam plays to people's hopes and dreams. As do most legitimate opportunities.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#46

Post by internet_points »

For those saying it's not MLM, it's not not MLM: https://replit.com/refer

Of course it's all within legal limits (or at least pre-legal, as the AI people call it[0]), but it smells like MLM. They'll stretch it as far as they can until there is push-back.

[0] https://web.archive.org/web/20260515043739/https://www.revsw...

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#47

Post by outime »

petesergeant wrote: post #44

We need a form people can fill out: > I don't like LLMs because: > > [ ] They steal from artists > [ ] They're destroying the planet > etc Instead of these articles, just tick the boxes. Only write the article if there aren't ten repeating the same points over and over again. Are there any HN readers who aren't intimately familiar with the problems associated with LLMs?

It's just HN's Two Minutes Hate (extended). It's wise to filter out stuff that's too hot for too long on this site to focus on interesting stuff, as at this point nuanced views aren't to be found.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#48

Post by Hendrikto »

petesergeant wrote: post #40

> Vibe-coded software is simply not good It doesn't fucking matter to the success of a business. I spent much of my early career unfucking large codebases that had been thrown together by sysadmins or teenagers or HTML guys who knew a bit of Perl on which an enterprising person had built very, very successful businesses. The software got fixed by pros long after profitability when it started to matter. There are very…

This is the attitude that gives us daily data breaches.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#49

Post by slopinthebag »

petesergeant wrote: post #40

> Vibe-coded software is simply not good It doesn't fucking matter to the success of a business. I spent much of my early career unfucking large codebases that had been thrown together by sysadmins or teenagers or HTML guys who knew a bit of Perl on which an enterprising person had built very, very successful businesses. The software got fixed by pros long after profitability when it started to matter. There are very…

I think it does matter. Bad software can make peoples lives worse, especially when they depend on it. Really bad software can kill people. Maybe it doesn't matter to the bottom line of a business, but that's a particularly low bar to meet.

Take this article for example

https://ericwbailey.website/published/modern-health-framewor...

Someone in a genuine health crisis seeking help but can't receive it could have deadly consequences. It doesn't matter to the business, but it does matter to people. Life is messy and complex, and if our software doesn't work correctly it does add to the suffering of others. Maybe it pushes some people past the point of no return. There are consequences to what we do, good or bad.

This is what I fear most about the rise of vibe coding. Businesses profit, people get hurt, and the incentives are all wrong.

Re: Generative AI Is Having Its Herbalife Moment

#50

Post by petesergeant »

Hendrikto wrote: post #48
petesergeant wrote: post #40

> Vibe-coded software is simply not good It doesn't fucking matter to the success of a business. I spent much of my early career unfucking large codebases that had been thrown together by sysadmins or teenagers or HTML guys who knew a bit of Perl on which an enterprising person had built very, very successful businesses. The software got fixed by pros long after profitability when it started to matter. There are very…

This is the attitude that gives us daily data breaches.

It is not an attitude, it is a clear statement of fact. That you don't like it is just shouting at clouds.
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