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Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

blog.alexellis.io

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Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is very much like playing an instrument. Or it is more like playing a slot machine and you imagine the rest.

I play slot machines as instrument! ;)

Roger Waters and Nick Mason were playing the cash register in 1973!

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#92
post #6

If you play with these models long enough, you realize there is more to them than just "model X is smarter than model Y" or "model Y is cheaper than model Z". They are different tools and the prompting technique is different. It is very much like playing an instrument. With Claude, you sometimes want to under-specify or phrase things more indirectly to give a color to the implementation or elicit something creative.…

+1.

this is what 'tokens are commodities' and 'there is no moat' people miss. the models are in general not easily swapped out. you always have to run evals before you can swap them around, tune prompts etc. even minor versions of models from same providers need this process.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#93
post #6

If you play with these models long enough, you realize there is more to them than just "model X is smarter than model Y" or "model Y is cheaper than model Z". They are different tools and the prompting technique is different. It is very much like playing an instrument. With Claude, you sometimes want to under-specify or phrase things more indirectly to give a color to the implementation or elicit something creative.…

> This is not scientific at all, just vibes, YMMV. This is the problem. I would love to have a product sheet showing what each models strengths an weaknesses are, so that I can have a clear decision tree of "if this kind of work, use model X" , or "model Y should be used in ways Z" . But they all look the same from the outside and the only way to figure out which might be marginally better at what is to do extensive,…

That would be ideal, but AI is less like a tool and more like a human in this regard and you don't have character sheets for each of your colleagues, as well.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#94
post #6

If you play with these models long enough, you realize there is more to them than just "model X is smarter than model Y" or "model Y is cheaper than model Z". They are different tools and the prompting technique is different. It is very much like playing an instrument. With Claude, you sometimes want to under-specify or phrase things more indirectly to give a color to the implementation or elicit something creative.…

One thing I used to test quite a lot was rerunning the exact same prompt on the same input, or semantically equivalent (in my mind) but differently framed or worded input, and seeing how much they diverged. In particular I’ve done this quite a lot between Sonnet vs Opus and across Qwen models. I recommend everybody do this because you don’t need any special data except what you are already using, and the results will…

I've not done particularly rigorous testing, but I've done this a lot with Claude to get a feel. What I've noticed is for certain open-ended tasks, Claude is extremely primeable: it will pick up on minor differences in wording in your prompt and run with them hard.

It can be frustrating. The AI pretends to be a human, and so a part of my brain expects them to commit and have a "parti pris" like a human, so the exercise is a good reminder of the feedback loop. My mental model is that before the first three or four messages, the model has many finer points of its personality still underdetermined. I'd suggest that as the mechanism for "role-based prompting". And it explains the "savant sleeper agent" thing you describe. You want to get the state in the right attractor on the manifold.

These machines are pretty incredible, but for conversation-driven workflows you really have to be in the driver's seat. A human has a property that the AI does not have, at least under current architectures: we are regulated by the outside world. A bit of a tangent, but I can see how AI psychosis arises from these dynamics.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. Opus 4.5 8 months ago, good enough for agentic coding. How far behind that are open weight models? More than 8 months? But how much more? When will they reach Opus 4.5 level? A few months from now? A year from now? Never?

The power of Opus isn't just the model, it's in the harness too. You can try it by using Opus through Github Copilot vs official Anthropic tools. You'll get very different results and experience (in my opinion).

open source harnesses are also improving rapidly.

Some people would claim they are already far better than CC and Codex.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musical instruments are not random. You’re just doing random inputs. Instruments are consistent, even if the “flavor” and quality varies with different builds. Playing a B on a saxophone always plays a B.

Saxophone, being a wind instrument was a bad choice. I can definitely tell which student was blowing when hearing a note. But your analogy remains solid if you substitute e.g. a piano and a reasonably proficient player. A single note would be nearly indistinguishable between players... But a full piece most certainly will sound different.

While I agree with you, I think it's diverging from the initial point.

The original take was "LLMs are very much like playing an instrument". I think they are very much NOT like playing an instrument.

While different musicians will produce different results, one musician won't get drastically different results on different days or when trying a different "copy" of the same instrument. If you can play the violin on your violin and I lend you my violin, you will still be able to play very consistently. You may argue that the sound will differ and you will have to adapt slightly, but that's not remotely similar to the randomness coming from LLMs.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The power of Opus isn't just the model, it's in the harness too. You can try it by using Opus through Github Copilot vs official Anthropic tools. You'll get very different results and experience (in my opinion).

I’ve only used Opus in GitHub copilot and was hugely underwhelmed. It was barely usable. Are you saying it’s better with the official Anthropic tools?

Night and day in my opinion. But these are all purely Feels so YMMV etc.

I like how especially the Claude Code CLI version communicates how it's progressing, something they hide a lot more on the desktop app for example.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#98
I find it strange that software people will accept this level of flakiness from the hardware. Normally you would just send the card back, and request a replacement.

> One of the cards would only show up if I crossed my fingers when turning it on. Even reboots wouldn't cure it - I had to A/C power off and remove the power cable each time for 30 seconds.

This is ridiculous. Of course we are living through supply crunch, but that card is clearly defective hardware.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't measure "feels". One good analogy is the Macbook vs generic windows laptop debate online. The engineer mind just compares numbers, the Lingwoo laptop from Amazon has biggest numbers for everything and the lowest price. Ergo it is the best. But the numbers don't measure the fact that the Lingwoo creaks and squeaks when you lift it due to the cheap plastic. It also runs at 100C when both CPU and GPU are fully…

> You can't measure "feels". One can always measure whatever they wonder about. It doesn't mean the measure will be trustworthy and that anything built on it won't be at best not worst than wet finger judgement.

Feels are just opinions and taste. It's like art and music, you can't quantify either to a mathematical formula or an absolute test of which is good.

Even songs that break the "rules" of music can be subjectively good, either because they broke the rules or despite it.

Or with cars, a car that's beautiful to one person is the ugliest piece of trash on the street. Some people want a super soft ride where their espresso martini doesn't even vibrate when gunning it through a gravel road and others want to feel every grain of sand on the asphalt in their buttocks. Neither is "correct" and there is no objective measurement for ride comfort.

Re: Local Qwen isn't a worse Opus, it's a different tool

#100
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like this is really due to the harness. Gemini CLI at work has the same issue: it'll prefer hacking your workstation over just asking you how to proceed. I think the harnesses are setup to have a bias to action otherwise the LLM would just stop all the time when doing trivial task but it also mean they'll keep going when the "obvious" path is to just prompt the user.

While I agree that the harness is part of it, I think it's also a lack of epistemic understanding or awareness for what it means to actually solve a problem vs just get something kinda working; maybe if Claude Code or other harnesses made web search more likely or had a better way to make technical documentation and specs available to models, it would be better solvable there. I often tell it to stop asking me and ju…

There are still billion dollar opportunities in the harness/LLM space.

Having a reliable shared memory for hundreds of agentic AI users is something that's 95% snake oil at the moment. There are a few successes on an individual level (I really like Hermes[0]) but nothing scales to a company level easily.

It should be possible to (pre)configure all agentic harnesses used in a company to use a single source for information so that it'd automatically pick up internal libraries, conventions, licensing decisions etc and remember them across sessions.

I've had limited success with this on a personal level, but it's still not ingrained in the model because it would really need a custom harness. Hooks, skills, prompts get you like 80% of the way. I still need to do a "please check that the project matches the conventions defined in ..." regularly to catch any drift - especially on more vague stuff that can't be locked down with unit testing.

[0] https://hermes-agent.nousresearch.com

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