Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
online.barrons.com
Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
1–10 of 21 posts
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#2I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed".
My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that is spread through multiple channels, resulting in a compression of the time frames of the current "D-process".
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#3I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed". My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that i…
There seems to be some kind of "all other factors held constant" clause hidden here, correct?
The idea seems valid, but I paused to think why it didn't jive with the employment recovery rate plots.
http://www.williampolley.com/blog/archives/2009/02/employmen...
It seems the most straightforward explanation is... actually, I can't think of one, but I have three factors that seemingly count against your theory. 1. increasing income and purchasing power disparity. 2. changing attitudes and/or culture; then we can expect a new kind of "equilibrium curve" due to new consumer behavior. 3. age of previous buyer's generation (unsure about this one).
Also, speed of information is unbalanced with speed of physical processes; you can make an order and track a package of food with millisecond accuracy, but you will still remain hungry for as long as the delivery truck can drive.
Someone more knowledgeable, say something if you will.
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#4I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed". My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that i…
You are ignoring rule #1 in the financial world: "Past performance may not be indicative of future results."
Don't worry, the entire financial world ignored this rule as well (which is precisely why I think this is likely to be a long downturn - rebuilding financial infrastructure is a long process involving lots of time and social work; you can't simply legislate it into being).
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#5When Barrons starts releasing stuff like this, it's time to put your contrarian hats on.
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#6I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed". My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that i…
All the talk of timeframes reminds me of Asimov's foundation trilogy. (The coming dark ages, and the attempts to shorten it, the use of math to describe the actions of large groups of people which is basically what economics is.) Anybody else read this?
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#7There's a good article in the FT today on a similar theme: how this recession is/isn't like past recessions, particularly the Japanese "lost decade".
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/774c0920-fd1d-11dd-a103-000077b076...
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#8Very interesting interview but I was confused about his predictions for gold and inflation.
He makes the point that deflation is a serious concern so the Fed will devalue and gold will be a great investment. But then he says that the devaluation will barely produce a single digit rate of inflation and stocks will be a great buy.
So which is it, low inflation and cheap stocks, or gold?
Gold doesn't pay dividends so the only way you make a profit is by it going up, or you simply preserve your wealth when there's inflation.
But why would you hide in gold with low single digit inflation?
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#9I agree with the fact that we are in a "D-process", but I'm skeptical about the "long" part. Something new is happening with the widespread availability of information through multiple channels, and I think because of this our economic cycles are "compressed". My prediction is that the rate at which businesses change/modify/adapt (especially in the financial sector) will be readily reflected in the information that i…
All the talk of timeframes reminds me of Asimov's foundation trilogy. (The coming dark ages, and the attempts to shorten it, the use of math to describe the actions of large groups of people which is basically what economics is.) Anybody else read this?
Yeah! I read it. It was one of my favourate series of all time. Things are exactly as how you have described. I hated the robot series. But Foundation trilogy was a classic!
Re: Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
#10It seems like everyone's a prophet these days. I understand why, I think -- we all hate uncertainty. But no one knows the future; this is all too chaotic to predict. Let's hope that fact actually works to our advantage.