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With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

paulkrugman.substack.com

41–50 of 99 posts

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#41
Musk is kind of fascinating.

On one hand SpaceX and Starlink are businesses that it's practically embarrassing that seemingly nobody else even tried to build. You look into it and look at Bezos and Blue Origin and wonder if the markets can actually build new businesses anymore.

Then you set them aside and realize that he basically got away with visa fraud because he was wealthy to begin with and lucked into making tons of money off PayPal and didn't even found Tesla...

...and the lesson I take away isn't that there's anything special about Musk. It's that if you have billions of dollars almost anybody with some kind of preoccupation can build giant businesses related to it.

For example, I totally believe if some random geek obsessed with SeaQuest had been part of the PayPal Mafia they could have figured out a way to make a billion dollar business out of underwater habitats and submarines.

...at least if they were crazed in public enough about it, which seems to have turned into a key part of how Musk works at some point.

Kind of like if you have a lot of money and a few obsessions you now get ahead more by having Tom Cruise couch hopping moments than by being an actual Howard Hughes or Hearst.

Separately we obviously really shouldn't be letting companies with such concentrated ownership be publicly traded with these multi-class shares, but I guess that's where we are now: reinventing feudalism in market trappings.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#42
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny he's only able to do that because he has so little real technical understanding. A real engineer wouldn't be so flippant.

> [Elon] has so little real technical understanding This is a common trope, it's been dismantled many times previously https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33555870

Your response is also a common trope. What has Elon actually invented? What code did Elon write on-par with Carmack?

We can judge him by technical merits very easily. But if you hold him to the standards of Carmack or Feynman, Elon's accomplishments are entirely benign.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#43

[flagged]

Don't underestimate the harm of being a hyper-rich asshole with government friends. It arguably outweighs all that even on pragmatic terms.

Also, the article explicitly answers your sarcasm.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#44
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China electrified the auto industry [1] [2] [3], not Tesla (mostly BYD). SpaceX is appreciated for proving that reusable vehicles are possible, which other nation states are building [4]. Musk is the management huckster who slaps his name on it, sells it, and reaps the benefits as opposed to the person grinding creating the actual results and innovation. "It is what it is." [1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car…

This is conveniently forgetting that China used Tesla as a template on how to build out its electric car companies, as it is now using SpaceX as a template to get reusable rockets going...

Actually, there's good evidence that it's the other way around. According to Elon, designing a car factory is 1000X harder than designing a car. According to Elon, the initial model 3 production was a big mess that almost bankrupted the company.

How did they turn this around? By building a car factory in China using local knowledge, then building an duplicate of that factory in Germany, and then building a factory in Texas that incorporated knowledge learned.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#45

guy who predicted that the internet would be a flop and whose career amounted to taking potshots from a paper calling one of the greatest capital allocators of all time a fraud https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...

> guy who predicted that the internet would be a flop

1. If you actually read the Snopes article, you'll see that his 1998 "prediction" was actually a humorous take on the Information Superhighway hoopla what was going on at the time.

2. Something else he wrote in 1998, in more serious matter, has been widely cited and was very important in the post-GFC world: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1998/06/1998b_b...

3. If you do want to take his "prediction" seriously, he was of course wrong about the social impact of the Internet (which he has himself admitted, IIRC).

4. But if you look at the economic numbers of the productivity Internet, he was actually correct:

* https://archive.ph/DUDEw

* https://archive.ph/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...

There are a few chapters on the growth (and lack thereof) of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) in:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_American_...

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Judging by his net worth he hasn’t done anything for us, he did it all for himself

The reason he has money is because he built products and services that people willingly exchanged their money for.

The most dangerous oversimplification facing the human species.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#47

I used to respect Krugman, but as time has gone on he seems like yet another New York Times style leftist monkey just whining about people they have disagreements with. Pushing the frontiers of science and technology is an unknowable endeavor for which accurate predictions can never be made unless they are not really pushing the limits. It's attitudes like this which restrict us from actually doing real R&D, and inst…

“Hey kids. Morality doesn't exist as long as you make enough people money.” You people are nothing but whores. You can dress it up in some kind of utopian futurism but no one with a brain buys it.

Its hilarious that the left, the home of the Weathermen, masked Antifa terrorists, assassins cheered by their base, studiously ignoring rape by favored groups, and a list I could continue for paragraphs, so weakly grasps for morality as some kind of new Puritans.

The only morality of the left is that of Big Brother.

Musk must be verboten because of his heresies, not because he shares the libertine tendencies of the left.

Considering that Climate Change is apparently the greatest challenge of our age, please point me to a single person who has done more to move the world economy to a Green economy than Musk?

Musk does indeed have some detestable tendencies, as indeed most of us do, if we will be honest in our private moments. The difference is his are magnified by those vehemently opposed to his willingness to oppose the entrenched political elite and speak the truth as he sees it. If Musk was willing to bend the knee he would be as celebrated as Soros despite his trillion..

Musk doesn't need me or anyone to stick up for him, but we as a society need to be much more honest in these dialogues about what we are truly talking about rather than cloak in vile rhetoric and divisive attacks. As long as we debase the debate with emotional baggage of envy and vitriol rather than goal based reasoning, we deserve the pit of despair we're currently swirling into.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, his wealth is 99% speculative. Elon has a closed box that he has successfully convinced a lot of people that there is a lot of money inside, and sold them small stakes in the contents, and promised year after year for 10+ years that this will be the year he opens it.

So the people who lament that he is a trillionaire have nothing to worry about then. It is just paper "wealth" that the market will pull back down to earth

Even if his 1T is speculative and undeserved he still has extreme power from that wealth. And there’s no indication that the bottom will fall out any time soon, so I think the lamenting is justified.

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#49
post #21

He revolutionized car and rocket industry , internet industry , military industry in a very dramatic obvious way. Now grab let’s say Amazon what did they revolutionize? Yeah they do deliver to you goods from China and help you to tend hardware with some decent soft on it . You can twist it both ways. He has a bravery to take on super complex tasks. You might not like him personally but this is so much aspiring vs see…

> Now grab let’s say Amazon what did they revolutionize?

Self-report. Never heard of AWS-East-1 before?

Re: With Wall Street’s help, you’re about to be forced to buy stock in SpaceX

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [Elon] has so little real technical understanding This is a common trope, it's been dismantled many times previously https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33555870

Your response is also a common trope. What has Elon actually invented? What code did Elon write on-par with Carmack? We can judge him by technical merits very easily. But if you hold him to the standards of Carmack or Feynman, Elon's accomplishments are entirely benign.

The query in question is "Elon little real technical understanding", which is demonstrably false. Responding to that with the logical fallacy of Moving the Goalposts does not address it.
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