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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

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Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#511

Post by Schlagbohrer »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #492
nopinsight wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one rational ever said software engineers were going to be replaced in 6 months. Some people said AI will automate 90% of coding in 6 months and they were not far off (and accurate in some contexts, e.g. startups).

Coding has been automated since the very beginning of coding. The first two programming languages (Fortran and Cobol) were supposed to make coding obsolete because non-coders will now just make software with natural language prompts. LLMs are a dangerous tool for coding because they are infinite technical debt generators. Ideally only experienced senior developers should be allowed to use them.

It's amusing to think that context window capability needs to outpace technical debt pileup with LLM development and usage

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#512

Post by saulpw »

Schlagbohrer wrote: post #508
Der_Einzige wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://arabianyachtdubai.com/who-owns-the-most-yachts/ Right now they're going on ~5-10 superyachets each. I could see them buying 100 in the future after they're 100x as rich. I think 5-10 which are 100x larger would also count for these purposes. For car collection people will keep going well into the hundreds. Hell Jay Leno just did a video with Joe Biden yet again and his corvette, but Jay Leno famously has hund…

Does anyone else see car-collecting or yacht-collecting as an indicator that the person in question is boring as hell?

Hoarding wealth is itself quite boring. There are many goals a person could have for their life, and "getting more money" is the least interesting. My question is always, TO DO WHAT? If you can't answer that question in some way that helps people (and then follow through if/when you do get that money) then your life is hollow no matter how many billions you have.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#513

Post by odo1242 »

scotty79 wrote: post #278
Animats wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Things in the real world often take longer than expected. Still, in cities where Waymo operates, many people routinely ride autonomous vehicles and prefer them. Yes. The bottleneck has been getting the cars manufactured. It takes a certain amount of time to get a factory going, and then the product starts pouring out. Waymo used up the supply of Jaguars, about 3,500 of them. The Ioniq 5 plant is starting up.[1] Way…

Decade ago my friend thought AI driving is going to be aftermarket kit.

comma.ai (mentioned by other comment) is really good actually, somewhere between Autopilot and Autopilot FSD in quality

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#514

Post by lukan »

lo_zamoyski wrote: post #509
lukan wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, you were serious. To be honest, I advise to go to a basi philosophy course once. I did, but won't buy such books, I had that topic covered. There is no proof that god exists. And there is even less proof that the holy spirit came down and impregnated Mary, or that Jesus ressurected from the dead or any of the other countles examples of superstition. The claim that god exists has the same validy, that a rock has a…

I have a graduate background in philosophy. Hopefully that gives you some idea of how impressed I am by your comments.

On a catholic academy/university?

Either way, could you then answer this simple question, the believe that a person resurrected from the dead or a human was conceived without sperm are not superstitious?

Declaring it is not, but logical with the axiom there is an allmighty god who made those things happen - has the same quality as declaring there is soul essence in every matter.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#515

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

reverius42 wrote: post #502
potatototoo99 wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess when you have 65k tests you can use an AI for transpiling, and it still seems it took an enormous amount of hand holding. That is very far from actually writing new code. But you tell me, are you a software developer? Write or have code written everyday? I am one and for me and everyone I know AI has been mostly just a (fantastic) replacement for google search.

> took an enormous amount of hand holding There's a big difference between "not writing any code by hand" (which still might involve lots of non-manual-coding effort!), and "vibecoding", and as I understand this thread was about the former. edit: yes, I'm a software developer, and if I have a change in mind larger than 2 lines I've been using Claude Code (with English input) rather than a text editor to do it, since…

Can't speak for everyone involved in this thread, but your workflow sounds identical to mine and that's what I was intending to describe. I agree there's a different thing sometimes called "vibecoding" which doesn't work well for software that has to be even mildly robust.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#516

Post by rng-concern »

pfdietz wrote: post #486
rng-concern wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just a matter of preference or proclamation. There are decades of research showing that more walkable neighborhoods are associated with higher physical activity levels, lower rates of some chronic diseases, more interaction with neighbors, and stronger feelings of community. The debate is usually about how large those effects are and whether they're worth the trade-offs, not whether the effects exist at all.

Yes, yes, totally dismiss the agency of people who inconveniently don't like what you want them to like. Their preferences mean nothing, their actions must be dictated. I'd be more angry with you if I wasn't amused at the frustration you must be feeling in failing to get traction for your dystopian vision.

You're making a lot of unwarranted assumptions about me: I'm not dismissing agency. I don't feel people making decisions is inconvenient. I don't not like their decisions. Their preferences do not mean nothing. I'm not dictating their actions.

I own and drive 2 cars.

I'll just stop there. I don't feel this conversation can continue in a positive way.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#518

Post by reverius42 »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #515
reverius42 wrote: post #502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> took an enormous amount of hand holding There's a big difference between "not writing any code by hand" (which still might involve lots of non-manual-coding effort!), and "vibecoding", and as I understand this thread was about the former. edit: yes, I'm a software developer, and if I have a change in mind larger than 2 lines I've been using Claude Code (with English input) rather than a text editor to do it, since…

Can't speak for everyone involved in this thread, but your workflow sounds identical to mine and that's what I was intending to describe. I agree there's a different thing sometimes called "vibecoding" which doesn't work well for software that has to be even mildly robust.

Right? Like the tool is the same (Claude Code, in my case, but there are many like it these days) but the operation of it is totally different:

"Write a function that will , put it in utils, and refactor the 3 locations that need to do that thing to use that function instead." (and then hundreds more prompts like that)

vs.

"Write an app that lets you trade crypto"

Just totally different activities.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#519

Post by Fritatta »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #407
bandrami wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I'm very much tech-forward and have spent the past decade in major world cities and I've seen a driverless car once in my life. Sometimes things that seem inevitable really aren't.

Driverless airplanes and driverless trains existed for many, many decades. There's still a highly paid and trained guy in the cabin though, for obvious reasons. Cars aren't any different. Do you really care about the exact kind of autopilot software when flying?

No more flight engineers though.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#520

Post by cobbzilla »

bcjdjsndon wrote: post #500
cobbzilla wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“If you turn me off, the dead-man switch kills your kid/spouse/house/etc”

I unplugged that device as well. Stupid clankers never thought to create efficient solar tech, it just makes it too easy

your lack of creativity is astounding. your adversary has outthought you.
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