Earlier quoted context omitted.
The market is pricing in the potential for future revolutionary shifts which seem fairly likely. For instance if there ends up being substantial labor disruption due to LLMs then the economy as we know it is going to end up being reshaped in ways that are difficult to imagine beyond the fact that the LLM providers would likely play a critical role in it. Similarly, SpaceX has already brought the cost of getting thing…
$20/kg is a wild claim. A typical American semi-truck (18-wheeler) can carry between 40,000 and 45,000 pounds (20 to 22.5 tons) can travel only 160k miles (2/3 distance to the Moon) on a budget of $400k (i.e. $20/kg). Do you expect us to believe that rocket transportation would be in the ballpark of truck prices in the near future?
With rockets, the fundamental viability is there through full reuse, airplane style. The majority of the cost of a repeatedly reusable vessel ends up being fuel, which is around a million bucks for Starship. Add another million for refurbishing, amortizing costs, and so on and you get a baseline launch cost of around $2 million. With a payload of 100 tons, you're at $20/kg.
The major difficulty is creating a system that's fully reusable, and that's exactly what's being done with Starship. I don't know if they'll succeed to the point of $20/kg, but it's a viable possibility. And if they do succeed then everything is going to get very weird, because the economics of transport become absurd, to say nothing of the entire frontier of space suddenly becoming 100% accessible at a reasonable cost for development.