Live data from Hacker News

SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

reuters.com

391–400 of 1001 posts

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#391

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

I also saw a quote from Musk saying that he expects SpaceX to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2031. Given his track record of predicting performance I think it's safe to ignore such future looking statements from him or companies he controls.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#392

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

Another way of putting this: global GDP is ~$132Trillion from what I gather.

So this is saying AI products will increase global GDP by about 20%.

The Federal Reserve says AI is contributing about 1% GDP growth per year to the US [0].

So maybe you can get to $13 trillion over a decade just from that. If you assume some acceleration, 20% isn't out of the question.

It is an extremely rosy projection, but if AI can replicate large fractions of the workforce, leaving those humans with the ability to work on other things, it doesn't seem unhinged when you think of it through this lens, just very optimistic - not Elon Musk level optimistic, just "everything goes according to plan and a bunch of things in the causal chain are all slightly on the higher end."

[0] https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-...

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#393

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

Over what period of time?

By 2030? No way

By 2050? Maybe?

Obviously during an IPO you’re trying to make the bull case (unhinged or not). What does it look like in the best case scenario.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#394

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

I know it has become a meme by now, but IIRC the market for all foods (agriculture, processed food, etc.) on earth is around $10 trillion. So according to SpaceX, the market for AI is 2.5 larger than all the food sold on this planet. They're also saying that the AI market is worth roughly 10% of all global real estate.

To be fair, food is the smallest bucket of my monthly expenses. And there are many people here on hacker news who pay more for their AI tokens than for their food.

How does argrar industry and tech industry compare as share of gdp in the US?

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#395

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

You need to understand the definition of “total addressable market.” It’s a maximum theoretical number for the size of the market (not your company’s revenue) under ideal assumptions. A $26 trillion TAM is high but it’s not “unhinged.” For example, the logistics and transportation market is over $10 trillion and expected to double by 2035. Under ideal assumptions, if AI replaces everything from coders to lawyers, why is that “unhinged?”

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#397

What does cursor have? An ide and coding orchestration? They are using Claude or codex for llms, so they get acquired for their user base and tooling? Feels like a lot of money for that given Claude has the majority mindshare.

Look at it the other way: What did Musk get last Friday? $75B from the SpaceX IPO.

It's almost like giving a toddler $100 in the toy department and seeing what happens next.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#398
post #358

Hm, surprised at all the Cursor hate here. Tab complete, at the quality they delivered, was a game changer back in the day. And their current work on Composer is great. Composer is super fast and quality is decent. More competition in the model space always welcome.

"Back in the day" is the key idea here. It's the valuation that doesn't make sense in today's market. What does Cursor offer to be valued at $60 BILLION? Its models are alright but nowhere near SOTA, and pretty much superseded by open source local models at this point.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#400
post #138
post #6

Wow they are using 80% of what they raised 4 days ago to buy an IDE. Absolutely incredible.

Per latest reporting, Cursor's current annual revenue rate is $4 billion. So SpaceX is buying 15 years of future cashflows, assuming no change in revenue. Which is bad assumption given past growth was gigantic. They are also buying 300-400 employees with proven record of training good coding models. Their expertise will be used to improve Grok Build coding agent. Also, they're using stock, not cash, so effectively th…

Tbh I don't know if we can use traditional DCF calculations for things like this.

The main challenge is: If models get better, why would humans need a tool like cursor, when they have AI agents doing the coding for them?

Post reply on HN