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Running local models is good now

vickiboykis.com

71–80 of 651 posts

Re: Running local models is good now

#71
post #34
post #7

This is the kind of thing that Anthropic et al should be worried about. As it becomes easier and easier to run local models, the ceiling of what they'll be able to charge will get lower and lower. Not that nobody will be willing to pay $$$$$ per month, but a lot of people are going to multiply the per-month charge by 12 or 24 and say "Could I set up a local model for less than that, and have it pay for itself within…

What I don't understand is that on one hand we read 'what they charge is much less than it costs them' and on the other hand this thread seems to suggest that 'what they charge is more than it would cost me'.

[deleted]

Re: Running local models is good now

#72
post #38

I think gemma-4-26b-a4b and Qwen3.6-35B-A3B show that there's something very interesting about a local model that does mixture-of-experts (which helps a lot with performance) and has in the order of 30 billion parameters. These models are very capable, and use around 20-30GB of RAM while they are running. Provided you have 64GB of RAM that leaves space for running other applications at the same time.

Obtaining that 64GB RAM is a meaningful obstacle for many.

Re: Running local models is good now

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious if you have tried custom instructions. I was never quite as unhappy with Claude's voice as you appear to be, but there were several things I didn't like. A custom prompt fixed almost all of them.

I think it would be very hard to convince someone to pay $100/mo to go back to Claude if they have a local model up and running, particularly now that model improvement has basically been stalled for the last 6 months. It’s so easy to set it up for yourself now too with things like LM studio. That said, there will always be unsophisticated users who can’t figure it out, so there will always be someone there to pay.

The third category are the occasional users that won’t have the hardware and won’t stomach a monthly fee for “unlimited” but are happy to pay-per-use.

I’d think the volume for that category would be low but LLMs aren’t just for coding.

Re: Running local models is good now

#74
post #7

This is the kind of thing that Anthropic et al should be worried about. As it becomes easier and easier to run local models, the ceiling of what they'll be able to charge will get lower and lower. Not that nobody will be willing to pay $$$$$ per month, but a lot of people are going to multiply the per-month charge by 12 or 24 and say "Could I set up a local model for less than that, and have it pay for itself within…

The opposite of that has been happening for 20 years now with cloud compute. It won't happen with AI models either. It's almost ingrained in the American business model now. Outsource everything. Nobody wants to manage a room full of servers when they can spend 2-3x as much and outsource that headache along with the responsibility for it. Same will happen with AI. Whether that means paying Anthropic that premium or p…

> I got pressure from the CEO saying it wasn't reliable to host our own infrastructure anymore even though our total internal down time over the last 5 years is significantly less than even a single of the larger recent AWS outages.

Same here. My job as a software dev does not require me to self-host services we need and use. Quite the opposite. But, I am reluctant to hand over all control to AWS or equivalent for several reasons that I will get into here.

I have found that Infrastructure as Code (IaC) and modern tools like opentofu, ansible, combined with frontier AI models and harnesses gives you superpowers in this space. Almost all of our self-hosted services are fully managed by these tools. e.g. We perform backups and test them more often now than we ever did before. Entirely because it is so much easier to do all of that now.

Re: Running local models is good now

#75
post #7

This is the kind of thing that Anthropic et al should be worried about. As it becomes easier and easier to run local models, the ceiling of what they'll be able to charge will get lower and lower. Not that nobody will be willing to pay $$$$$ per month, but a lot of people are going to multiply the per-month charge by 12 or 24 and say "Could I set up a local model for less than that, and have it pay for itself within…

The opposite of that has been happening for 20 years now with cloud compute. It won't happen with AI models either. It's almost ingrained in the American business model now. Outsource everything. Nobody wants to manage a room full of servers when they can spend 2-3x as much and outsource that headache along with the responsibility for it. Same will happen with AI. Whether that means paying Anthropic that premium or p…

It's just not comparable though is it? You need cloud services because it's physically impossible to use your single home computer as a server, CDN, load balancer, mass storage, security service, and distributed system.

But AI is just weights, you can run a reasonably intelligent model at home, or on a few GPUs if you're a small-medium sized company, and it doesn't require dedicated maintenance.

Re: Running local models is good now

#76
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very curious what hardware you're running this on!

The same 24GB VRAM RTX 4090 I bought to play Cyberpunk 2077 with. Works perfectly fine in llama.cpp throwing 70+t/s at me with 128k q8 K/V context when using the IQ4_NL quant + MTP at q4 MTP K/V. Also leaving this here because you might find it useful: https://hypfer.github.io/will-it-fit-llama-cpp/

What did you call me?

Re: Running local models is good now

#77
post #39

I really recommend Qwen3.6 27B. Make some tests, and its 8 bit version runs at 30tok/s when using llama.cpp with MTP and run on Macbook Max M5. I have 128 GB, but but 64 GB is well enough. https://github.com/stared/benching-local-llms-on-apple-silic... When using benchmarks, it gives more-or-less the level of SotA mid-late 2025.

Did you mean 2025?

Yes, fixed

Re: Running local models is good now

#78
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very curious what hardware you're running this on!

The same 24GB VRAM RTX 4090 I bought to play Cyberpunk 2077 with. Works perfectly fine in llama.cpp throwing 70+t/s at me with 128k q8 K/V context when using the IQ4_NL quant + MTP at q4 MTP K/V. Also leaving this here because you might find it useful: https://hypfer.github.io/will-it-fit-llama-cpp/

Nice! Do you do anything with that compute when you're not actively using it? Is the crypto-mining hobby still worth it? I've also wondered if such expensive hardware can be rented back out to offset cost. Looks like these cards are going for as much as $4k nowadays.

Re: Running local models is good now

#79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Global Affordability Estimate: Top 10% of global earners (~800M people) can afford a $2,000 device without major financial strain. Top 25% (~2B people) could afford it with some budget adjustments. Bottom 50% (~4B people) would find it prohibitively expensive. So for a SV top income, maybe that might look more like the weekly pet brushing budget, but for most people out there this is not that much of a no-brainer.

The maths changes if you're working for yourself. Because I live in Europe, I've ended up working as a contractor due to the lack of a legal entity in my country. While that mostly sucked for a bunch of reasons, I was able to get a 64Gb Mac M2 a few years back with approximately a 52% discount, which was kinda nice.

If you're working for yourself paying monthly is exactly the same as amortising an asset. Personally I'd rather my business just pay $100 a month than have to deal with additional hardware and software maintenance while using a depreciating asset that is break-even after 3-5 years depending on the spec.

Re: Running local models is good now

#80

I have used local models (around 128 gb) and the big proprietary models, and while I do want local models to win, it's important we keep the expectations of local models realistic. There are many blog posts about how local models today can fully replace some of the proprietary models and in some cases its true for the much smaller proprietary models, its very clearly much more behind the larger models. You can be far…

So which harness did you end up choosing?
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