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Hetzner Price Adjustment

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Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#721

Post by Dylan16807 »

stymaar wrote: post #701
Dylan16807 wrote: post #696

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very narrow? The masses could get a computer for almost all the time integrated circuits have been produced. And the entire time, better manufacturing pushed prices down at least every few years. Including RAM going up multiple times. We would have to buck that entire trend on top of having a failure of supply and demand to end up with the current prices being permanent. (And don't be dramatic. Even at current prices…

> Very narrow? The masses could get a computer for almost all the time integrated circuits have been produced. The “personal computing for the mass” era hadn't even started when I was born, and I don't even consider myself old yet. > And the entire time, better manufacturing pushed prices down at least every few years. It's not because something happened before that it will necessarily happen again. > Even at current…

The masses could get one in the 70s or 80s depending on your exact threshold. Integrated circuits had only existed since about 1960.

And the manufacturing improvement and price drop ramp has been going for 65 years. It's not guaranteed but better lithography machines keep being built and it's still happening with CPUs and GPUs.

RAM at this level of profit is unstable.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#722

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

antasvara wrote: post #416
fl4regun wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a truth very few people are willing to confront. My grandmother lived in a village, on a farm, growing her own food and slaughtering her own animals, with no working plumbing, using a well for water. Of course a lot of that changed even just moving up to the 70s, but at that point there still wasn't quite the consumerist "buy whatever you want from wherever and whomever you want and have it almost immediately…

This point is valid. However, lifestyle improvement rate is something that's slowing over time because of physical constraints. For example, the vehicle mortality rate is 1.44 per 100 million miles driven. That's down 17% from 2000 (so 25 years ago). However, the change from 1975 to 2000 was 53%. That's because as we get closer to 0, it gets harder and harder to improve those rates. On this metric at least, I don't t…

It's hard to anticipate. If you'd asked me 20 years ago "maybe they'll invent a better apple" would not have crossed my mind, but Cosmic Crisp came out in 2019, and now I routinely eat apples which look and taste better than anything I previously imagined. My parents tell me they had the same experience with meal prep kits and Thai food.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#723

Post by mrngld »

bayindirh wrote: post #581
Dylan16807 wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the real risk after the slow death of personal computing. By the time you can have a slow death of personal computing, capacity will improve and prices will improve. In the shorter term sitting on an old computer or regressing a couple years on specs or paying an extra $100/$200 for 8GB/16GB works. > Even internet resources like servers will be hoarded by the hyperscalers that are the only ones who can affo…

> By the time you can have a slow death of personal computing, capacity will improve and prices will improve. I love this baseless optimism. Reminds me of the economic theory (forgot who put it forward): Everything will be fine in the long run. ...and it's rebuked by Maynard Keynes: "We're all dead in the long run". Yes, by the time capacity & prices will improve, we'll be all dead. > I don't see why hyperscalers wou…

> I love this baseless optimism. Reminds me of the economic theory (forgot who put it forward): Everything will be fine in the long run.

Seems accurate though, I've already noticed no-name Chinese manufacturers stepping it up, throwing caution and capital to the wind and leaning in as hard they can. Following the typical Chinese model of how they get involved in markets, we're just a couple years away from memory being a market with skyrocketing prices and limited availability to a market where various nations are considering bailouts and tariffs to protect their local manufacturers from dirt-cheap Chinese exports to keep their memory producers from going through what domestic solar panel producers went through (a near extinction level event).

I specifically didn't say disk mfg as well only because I haven't yet noticed a new big spinning HDD Chinese brand. But they're definitely active in the lower end of the DDR5 market.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#724

Post by root-parent »

jayd16 wrote: post #382
root-parent wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

A new life awaits you in the off-world colonies! The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.

Do you know how many jobs there will be on Mars? Go west young man..

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#725

Post by mrngld »

jameshart wrote: post #168
MattGaiser wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also trivial to use now. With AI, there’s no meaningful additional work in using a VM.

Right, instead of using a managed serverless platform where you pay a premium for proprietary cloud provided services to take away the overhead of managing and patching servers for you and let you just deploy containers, you can… pay a premium for proprietary cloud-hosted AI engines to take away the overhead of managing and patching servers for you and let you just deploy containers.

That's what I'm doing for my personal stuff. It's all running on a pair of Raspberry Pi's. There's an automation in Codex to, once a week, run a ton of health checks, updates, make sure backups are running, etc., and let me know the outcome. Tailscale acting a little wonky? One quick prompt (from my phone! don't even need to sit down at the keyboard any more) and it's sorted out.

It's lowered the threshold for homelab style projects dramatically. It's not doing anything I couldn't have, but the juice wasn't worth the squeeze before compared to, say, Pikapods. Now there basically is no squeeze, just juice.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#726

Post by awongh »

delusional wrote: post #713
awongh wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

afaik prices for the big cloud providers haven't changed this much. Their instance prices are already inflated and they're probably willing to eat into their own margins to keep prices stable and just wait out the capex increase (also probably a drop in the bucket next to the hyperscale rollout). People love to say how great it is for these alt clouds to have lower prices, until they're exposed to market forces with…

There is not a snowballs chance in hell that MS or Amazon isn't charging you at your absolute pain tolerance. As that tolerance goes up because the baseline of the market raises prices, the "hyperscalers" will too, but tenfold. There is no price stability to be found with MS.

It’s all about perspective, because Vercel is probably another 3-10x markup on AWS?

These kinds of choices are kind of pricing range as engineering decisions in the end.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#728

Post by keybored »

andix wrote: post #38
zsoltkacsandi wrote: post #17

Correct me if I am wrong, but AI made software development and operations more expensive than before. Yes, it is faster too, but the question: is it worth the price? Can the users consume new features in that pace?

I start to think that AI might be a net negative on the economy. It consumes an enormous amount of resources, just to keep doing what we did before. Laying off people also doesn't reduce cost as much as it might look like. There is a lot of hidden cost shared by everyone (also the companies that did the lay offs are hit by them). Unemployed people still have to eat and pay rent, and someone is paying for that. They s…

> Laying off people also doesn't reduce cost as much as it might look like. There is a lot of hidden cost shared by everyone (also the companies that did the lay offs are hit by them). Unemployed people still have to eat and pay rent, and someone is paying for that. They spend less money on services and goods, which affects every company in the end.

Poor companies missing out on consumer money.

It’s funny to think about. One might lose their apartment because they can’t pay rent. Then they’re homeless. What does that mean? As long as they are eating, at least some moeny is circulating. Maybe not as much because of dumpster diving and things like that. Meanwhile what was lost? One less family to pay for rent. Which means that an apartment is vacant. And rent is mostly not productive. It is mostly rent on estate ownership.

The first level of destituness (for renters at least) might not lead to less productive money circulating. But less rent money. Then when that happens to enough people you simply have more vacant apartments. Okay, a little loss of productive circulation since no one is wearing out the floors etc.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#729

Post by philistine »

andsoitis wrote: post #364
philistine wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's all a matter of perspective. 100 years ago, the middle class' purchasing power is far bigger. Compared to 50 years ago, the middle class is getting poorer.

> 100 years ago, the middle class' purchasing power is far bigger. Compared to 50 years ago, the middle class is getting poorer. What’s your data source? Keep in mind that the modern, mass middle class was created in the mid-20th century through government policies and post-WWII economic growth.

Look at the graph:

https://spp.ucalgary.ca/sites/default/files/teams/1/Publicat...

All the growth in our economy since the 70s has been captured by the richest. If purchasing power is a finite ressource, we're getting squeezed out by the 10%.

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