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SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

reuters.com

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Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#261

Post by andsoitis »

jtbayly wrote: post #198
geremiiah wrote: post #167

Here's a shower thought. BTC essential is worth $70k solely through the power of memes. Can TSLA and SPCX remain overvalued (relative to the revenue of their respective underlying assets) forever through the power of memes? Intuitively, it seems to me that there must necessarily be some kind of upper limit, but I'm not convincing myself. These speculative assets are only attractive as long as the price keeps inflatin…

I saw that one wealthy individual had purchased $1 billion of SpaceX at the IPO. Does that count as a retail investor?

> I saw that one wealthy individual had purchased $1 billion of SpaceX at the IPO. Does that count as a retail investor?

There were two individuals who each bought $1B: Ron Baron and Gina Rinehart.

While they are individuals, they executed these billion-dollar investments through their massive corporate entities and investment firms, rather than personal brokerage accounts.

A retain investor is an individual, non-professional investor who buys and sells securities through brokerages using personal funds.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#262

Post by prennert »

wmeredith wrote: post #12

"SpaceX told investors during the IPO process that it sees an addressable market for AI products worth $26 trillion, roughly equivalent to U.S. GDP." This is unhinged.

I call it forward thinking: they assume massive inflation due to income taxes breaking away.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#263

Post by threetonesun »

somenameforme wrote: post #250
geremiiah wrote: post #167

Here's a shower thought. BTC essential is worth $70k solely through the power of memes. Can TSLA and SPCX remain overvalued (relative to the revenue of their respective underlying assets) forever through the power of memes? Intuitively, it seems to me that there must necessarily be some kind of upper limit, but I'm not convincing myself. These speculative assets are only attractive as long as the price keeps inflatin…

The overwhelming majority of SpaceX holders are institutional. They had planned to allocate 30% to retail, but it ended up in the 20% range as a result of institutional demand. [1] No clue what's going on right now as their stock is going to the Moon. But in any case, I think the people that don't understand why it's doing well are mostly those who are unfamiliar with the space industry. SpaceX has already revolution…

You really think cost is the main reason humanity hasn't expanded into space? I'm all for space exploration and learning from space but actual humans are quite squishy, like gravity, dislike radiation, and would need to take a lot of water with them just to visit a rock very indifferent to their existence.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#264

Post by jmyeet »

I believe that OpenAI (I'll get to SpaceX in a second) has a huge valuation risk because:

1. It's a bet that OpenAI will "win" AI and have a significant moat; and

2. Future hardware improvements won't massively devalue OpenAI.

I believe open source models will win here, mainly because China won't allow otherwise. I also think that nobody is really talking about the hardware decpreciations coming in the next few years, which is going to be really important from a performance-per-Watt perspective. B100s aren't going to suck. But a theoretical T100 will get 30-80% more performance for the same energy input.

So, SpaceX. I've previously said that SpaceX would've been a significantly better company without xAI. SpaceX was used to rescue Elon and other "investros" from the financially disastrous Twitter purchase. Starlink, Starship (which is a risky program) and the Falcon 9 are a solid business. They're just not a $2 trillion business.

So I believe that the AI bubble contributes at least half of SpaceX's valuation and when and if that bubble bursts, at least half of SpaceX's value is at risk.

Google announced they're throwing billions to rent GPUs from SpaceX. That might sound good. It solves a short-term cash issue. But as another commenter put it, it makes SpaceX seem more like a Commercial REIT. After all, renting out your GPUs is literally the lowest-value thing you can do with them. You're not building a business. You're taking rent so someone else can build a business.

So buying Cursor and I'm sure any number of other AI startups in the coming year or two, seems aimed at kicking that AI can down the street.

So I view the Google-SpaceX as a red flag in the short-to-medium term. SpaceX simply can't seem to do anything valuable with all the compute they have. And I also have way more confidence in Anthropic (in particular), OpenAI and Gemini than I do in Grok.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#267

Post by puszczyk »

guidedlight wrote: post #77

Does anyone here think Cursor is overvalued? It's just packaging up what already exists, it has no moat or IP.

It doesn’t tell anything about the valuation, but I prefer it over Claude Code, and I even stopped using JetBrains IDEs because of it.

Vs Claude Code: I like the option to change the models, as I often prefer ChatGPT or Composer to Opus. I have a slight preference towards TUI, but not so strong to drop the models.

Vs JetBrains. I really love JetBrains but the tab complete just works so well for me.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#268

Post by rebolek »

ozgrakkurt wrote: post #207
geremiiah wrote: post #167

Here's a shower thought. BTC essential is worth $70k solely through the power of memes. Can TSLA and SPCX remain overvalued (relative to the revenue of their respective underlying assets) forever through the power of memes? Intuitively, it seems to me that there must necessarily be some kind of upper limit, but I'm not convincing myself. These speculative assets are only attractive as long as the price keeps inflatin…

> BTC essential is worth $70k solely through the power of memes This is not true. BTC is way more sane than SpaceX as can be seen by it's history so far.

SpaceX is successfully building reusable rockets. BTC can process few transactions every ten or so minutes at enormous price.

I think SpaceX is definitely overpriced but saying that BTC is more sane is completely delusional.

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#269

Post by oulipo2 »

guidedlight wrote: post #77

Does anyone here think Cursor is overvalued? It's just packaging up what already exists, it has no moat or IP.

I guess they're getting bought because they had access to a lot of codebases from a lot of companies, and perhaps there's something to mine in those logs...

Re: SpaceX to buy Cursor for $60B

#270

Post by CuriouslyC »

somenameforme wrote: post #250
geremiiah wrote: post #167

Here's a shower thought. BTC essential is worth $70k solely through the power of memes. Can TSLA and SPCX remain overvalued (relative to the revenue of their respective underlying assets) forever through the power of memes? Intuitively, it seems to me that there must necessarily be some kind of upper limit, but I'm not convincing myself. These speculative assets are only attractive as long as the price keeps inflatin…

The overwhelming majority of SpaceX holders are institutional. They had planned to allocate 30% to retail, but it ended up in the 20% range as a result of institutional demand. [1] No clue what's going on right now as their stock is going to the Moon. But in any case, I think the people that don't understand why it's doing well are mostly those who are unfamiliar with the space industry. SpaceX has already revolution…

So, your argument for SpaceX is that they'll take physical systems that they've already tried to squeeze down, and squeeze them down nearly two orders of magnitude? What fundamental scientific discovery do you think is going to enable this? Or do you think that AI is magically going to do it for them?
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