Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hinton also said we should stop training radiologists 10 years ago because it would be solved by AI.
The only way to never make wrong predictions is to not make any.
And yet, here we are in a thread full of them.
Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
371–380 of 524 posts
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#372Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#373Earlier quoted context omitted.
My personal "wow" moment was less about it being able to do the same that I could do with it, just faster, but instead that together we could could build things that I wasn't able to build before (or unwilling to spend the time to learn maybe). So a bunch of stuff are suddenly "unlocked", as long as you know how to verify it properly.
If you weren't able to build it before then you aren't able to properly verify it Verifying is harder than building!
Ok, so before I couldn't (/didnt have the time to) build cross-platform native desktop applications with minimal amount of 3rd party dependencies, but now I "can". What exactly am I unable to verify here?
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
And despite all the deaths they caused, the benefits are undeniable... Fancy going back to horse and cart? Didn't think so...same logic applies to ai
The car did not replace the horse and cart. This is an oft cited and widely believed myth. It replaced mostly walking, but also cycling, trollies and trains. And it didn't do so until after a huge build out of infrastructure to accommodate drivers at the cost of everything else. After the building of highways and roads cities were no longer walkable, people had moved out into the suburbs, their jobs were now a couple…
> It replaced mostly walking, but also cycling, trollies and trains.
And everything was carried on people's heads, yeah? The horse and cart was in use right up to the 20th century my man...there was no other way to move heavy items across land until the combustion engine (or canals thought that's not technically over land)
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hinton also said we should stop training radiologists 10 years ago because it would be solved by AI.
I was at a major radiology conference recently and the radiologists kinda seemed to agree. (The interventional radiologists are a little less nervous, for now.) Apparently 80% of FDA-approved AI "medical devices" (which covers software, not just hardware) are for radiology. ( https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-device-... )
This just underscores the point. Despite the advancement of "AI medical devices", the labor market numbers for radiology show Hinton was spectacularly incorrect.
If we had followed his advice we would be experiencing a major crisis in medicine today.
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#376We don't need to live "side by side" with AI. AI is not alive, it's a technology we use. This is like talking about living side by side with your toaster.
No, the side by side idea relates to godlike sentient AI:s. LLM:s are trivial in comparison. It is important to understand that in order for the AI-bros to continue to rake in other peoples money, and keep their bubbles inflated, it must seem credible that they will invent godlike AI tomorrow. That justifies infinite valuations.
When the public no longer belives in that, the bubbles will pop and the AI bros will continue on to the next hype, with yet another generation of small time investors being burned by the popping bubbles.
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#377How far are we from reliable AI? One that could, for example, handle 80% of office jobs without screwing up more than humans?
Society is completely changed if that happens and humanity should be setting up backup plans to handle this potential. I did see Trump mention he's going to meet with AI companies who want to propose giving all American's stock which could be one way this money driven society continues when tons are no longer working. Another concept I thought was AI is irrelevant without our content, so AI should pay all humans to a…
Walled gardens harvest all that data for free and humans keep on feeding it
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#378> Fermi asked why, given the apparent abundance of planets suitable for life, no evidence of other technologically advanced civilisations had been detected. One disquieting possibility is that intelligent life routinely reaches a technological threshold and fails to navigate it, The Fermi paradox could actually also be taken as an evidence that it's rare (at least) for artificial intelligences to take over a civiliza…
The Fermi paradox isn't evidence for anything except space being big.
It rules out various superficially attractive scenarios, particularly ones in popular science fiction, like Star Trek or Star Wars.
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was at a major radiology conference recently and the radiologists kinda seemed to agree. (The interventional radiologists are a little less nervous, for now.) Apparently 80% of FDA-approved AI "medical devices" (which covers software, not just hardware) are for radiology. ( https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/software-medical-device-... )
This just underscores the point. Despite the advancement of "AI medical devices", the labor market numbers for radiology show Hinton was spectacularly incorrect. If we had followed his advice we would be experiencing a major crisis in medicine today.
But is it a "he was wrong" scenario, or is it a "he wasn't quite right on the timing" bit, ala https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry ?
Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
YOU still write code. I would say over 65-70% of modern programmers no longer write code. The paradigm shift happened within the last 365 days.
65-70% "programmers" never wrote code in the first place. Before AI cargo culters just copy pasted code from tutorials, stack overflow, github and so on. With AI they merely continue not writing code. Some people didn't do anything, not even copy paste, see r/overemployed although I have not checked it after AI... maybe it's no longer possible to hold a dev job without actually doing anything. Programmers still write…
No. You can't get very far copying and pasting from stack overflow.
I'm talking about legit programmers which are around 90% imho. Out of those programmers 65-70% no longer write code.