Live data from Hacker News

Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

gmalandrakis.com

341–350 of 613 posts

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#341
post #9

For an article that starts off asking us to examine our assumptions and not make leaps of logic, it goes on to make some absolute whopper assumptions, like that governments (Western governments especially, for some reason), won't do anything to address the problems the article is raising, that they'll instead abandon democracy entirely and resort to police and military oppression, and that massive unemployment and po…

Their argument didn’t make sense to me from the beginning. One of its premises is that The Rich are some cohesive group that can trade amongst themselves in a hermetically sealed economy. That seems obviously untrue, there are a lot of different rich people with competing goals and motives. Another false premise is it argues that finance and tech are completely detached from the so-called “real” economy. It uses the…

You're interpreting the claims more strongly than they were presented, IMO.

> One of its premises is that The Rich are some cohesive group

There doesn't have to be a fully cohesive group of an entire class for there to be negative consequences for the non-members of that class. The members also don't have to be cohesive or aligned at first, but they will tend to align on issues that threaten their position.

For example, we have historically seen that the incumbent elites tend to be anti-socialist/-communist, because their relative position and power are threatened, even if their populations and some (aspiring) elites are remotely pro-socialist. And because the coercive power of incumbents is often much higher than the power of some populace or aspirants (i.e., they have more to offer to those who hold coercive power), they will tend to succeed in pushing against the majority.

The entire history of the US, UK, Germany, France, Russia (etc.) is full of such examples.

> that can trade amongst themselves in a hermetically sealed economy.

It doesn't have to be hermetically sealed to exclude certain populations.

On a global level, many countries don't trade with each other, and their economies are doing fine. Hard sanctions and cold wars even make this intentional, rather than a product of "we don't have anything to offer to each other".

On a local level, most people don't interact with the "homeless"/unhoused, and the latter often don't have much to offer to the former. Most Western countries don't need to hermetically separate the rich from the rest, but if you look at Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia or even the US, gated communities are common in some areas. Most of the rest outside don't have much to offer to those inside.

Taken together: if it's plausible, and we don't know how probable it may be, we may want to figure that out, instead of hoping it's not probable.

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#342

Why do we believe that AI (if indeed we achieve human level AI) will have different outcome than the means of production or capital? It’s a winner takes all situation. Very few will accumulate all of the wealth of world. This time it will be more efficient than the Industrial Revolution, because not only you can produce the weapons for the meatbags to protect your wealth, you can even get rid of the meatbags and just…

Does wealth continue to be a coherent concept once very few have all of it? I don't think it's been tried. Also, since markets are fundamentally neural networks (with prices as action potentials) it seems like an improved understanding of how to manipulate neural networks would coincide with a change in how we practice markets. I suspect it'll come down to whether they can use markets to dispense with us faster than…

Monetary wealth is a proxy for power.

> Does wealth continue to be a coherent concept once very few have all of it? I don't think it's been tried.

I think this is already the case.

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#343

Questions.... - what powers the robots? How is this power source maintained? - when a robot is damaged, how is it repaired and where do the raw materials come from? - when a robot simply doesn't work properly, who assesses the issue and resolves it? - with 99% of the world population presumably starving to death, what is stopping them from overthrowing whoever is starving them to death?

- electricity (from solar, hydro, nuclear, whatever). maintained by robots.

- it is repaired by robots using resources mined or reclaimed by robots.

- you guessed it, robots.

- robots with weapons.

If we actually want to prevent this doomsday scenario, I don't think it's wise to bet on "robots will never be able to do X".

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#344

Questions.... - what powers the robots? How is this power source maintained? - when a robot is damaged, how is it repaired and where do the raw materials come from? - when a robot simply doesn't work properly, who assesses the issue and resolves it? - with 99% of the world population presumably starving to death, what is stopping them from overthrowing whoever is starving them to death?

we already have a fleet of autonomous robots composed of protein that solved this problem. its not infeasible for artificially created robots to eventually be able to do this stuff on their own.

> to eventually be able to do this

Eventually being the key concept here. No doubt we'll automate a bunch of stuff, but not at this pace. The robots aren't good enough yet. General purpose robots are even further away.

For the foreseeable, you will still need wage slaves

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyone wants more Not true at all. If I could work two days a week for 40% of my current income I would take the opportunity in a heartbeat and would be much, much happier for it. Unfortunately that option isn't available to me, nor to most people.

This is equivalent to buying 3 extra days of free time with 60% of your income. You want more (holidays, in this case) and you buy them with work.

It’s 3 extra days per week OP. People live for a bunch of weeks. It’d only be 3 days total if they had the lifespan of a moth

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason why the masses should consume is to motivate them to work. The masses work because they want to consume, not the other way around. Everyone wants more > But if you imagine a sci-fi world where machines can build and do everything humans can do, the concept of a human-centric economy would be pointless. There’s a number of obstacles I can think of to get there, in a human governed world, where humans make…

> Everyone wants more Not true at all. If I could work two days a week for 40% of my current income I would take the opportunity in a heartbeat and would be much, much happier for it. Unfortunately that option isn't available to me, nor to most people.

It is possible to frontload the effort though and FIRE.

It makes sense too, if I worked two days of the week right now, I'd spend giant majority of that time just catching up and understanding the changing context. It would make more sense to work 4 months a year; 5 days a week.

Unfortunately, it's one of those things that only work in theory and isolation.

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#347
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of my software engineering skillset is "going native" with subject matter experts to be able to get more out out of them and even work around the lack of sufficient SME on a project. I see software development as part of a broader science, technology and even ideology of simulation. But I came from a research background too.

Sounds like a similar track, and I agree that its a useful skill and talent. What I mainly noticed was, after really understanding my domain, the confidence of the SWEs I was working with despite being incorrect. Now I am a SWE and I try to stay humble.

This is correct behavior. There must be a name for this effect of having some more or less shallow understanding and feeling like an actual expert with decades of experience from various sides of the topic.

SWEs I think are more susceptible to this since as you say we often dip in many areas and industries. No, we are not actual SMEs and proper experts (barring exceptions of course, but in any case we usually have a specific view on domain, while proper experts understand many/all views).

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#348

It is frustrating to not be able to predict the future. How can you get married, have children, get a 25 year mortgage on a house, buy a car for comfort even though you don't absolutely need it? Even if you do consider buying a home, how do you know it's worth anything if you can't predict this particular place's future situation? Some countries tax enough to make the risk of buying quite high. A leap of faith is req…

That's the neat part, you don't. At least as far as the younger generations is concerned there is no future for us, even if you don't include climate change. Laying flat / quiet quitting, etc. movements are not accidental.

Re: Peopleless economy? Not technically impossible

#350

It is frustrating to not be able to predict the future. How can you get married, have children, get a 25 year mortgage on a house, buy a car for comfort even though you don't absolutely need it? Even if you do consider buying a home, how do you know it's worth anything if you can't predict this particular place's future situation? Some countries tax enough to make the risk of buying quite high. A leap of faith is req…

That's the neat part, you don't. At least as far as the younger generations is concerned there is no future for us, even if you don't include climate change. Laying flat / quiet quitting, etc. movements are not accidental.

Laying flat is completely different though.

It's the realization in china that their efforts will never amount to meaningful rewards, hence they scale down the effort to what's absolutely necessary for survival. Living without a home and only working maybe 1 day a week to get enough food to not die. Equivalent in Europe would be to just be homeless and get by on social security, US probably getting by on food stamps.

What you see here is subtly different: they see the sword of damocles. Whatever they may do, the end may come at any point and they have no way to influence it.

But to go back to the initial question of what to do: you ignore it. You cannot do anything about it, hence you can only gamble that it doesn't manifest and work under that assumption. If it does manifest youre fucked anyway. But if it doesn't, you're gucci

Post reply on HN