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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

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Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#101

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #85
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I think AI has eliminated writing code. Everyone I personally know working in software stopped writing code some time between December and March. (It's true that AI continues to routinely make errors; if you've heard the term "agentic workflows", that's the standard strategy for mitigating the error rate by allowing the AI to check its own work.) That's why I think Amodei's January 2026 prediction that AI could…

> Yes, I think AI has eliminated writing code. Then you are dead wrong. Anyone who gives a shit about doing a good job is still writing code.

No, that’s not accurate. I’m not sure what to tell you. It’s like hearing that no serious programmer uses Python, it’s so far from my experience and that of everyone I know in the field that I don’t know how to engage.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#103

Post by RandomLensman »

nopinsight wrote: post #98
hypfer wrote: post #68

Reminds me of all of those ethics debates back when fully self driving cars were basically already here ca 10 years ago. The ones talking about how hard it would be to chose which person to run over. Additionally, I find it hard to believe that this would be a case of the future just not being distributed evenly. But sure. The AI labs relying on hype stating 15-50% risk of building a magic entity is certainly a relia…

Things in the real world often take longer than expected. Still, in cities where Waymo operates, many people routinely ride autonomous vehicles and prefer them. For software, however, a rapid turn is often a possibility. See: AI for coding over the last 3-4 years. AI autocomplete --> AI coding assistants --> vibe coding --> agent orchestration Coders can now accomplish work that used to take a week or longer in a cou…

But there is also still a huge part that doesn't run on software with so far little change.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#104

Post by silon42 »

weregiraffe wrote: post #91
JuniperMesos wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see driverless cars all the time in San Francisco and I'm eagerly awaiting the regulatory decisions that will allow them to be widely available in the bay area at large.

It's not driverless until you can sleep while it drives.

Car needs to drive me to work and then go back home to charge.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#105

Post by bandrami »

JuniperMesos wrote: post #87
bandrami wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I'm very much tech-forward and have spent the past decade in major world cities and I've seen a driverless car once in my life. Sometimes things that seem inevitable really aren't.

I see driverless cars all the time in San Francisco and I'm eagerly awaiting the regulatory decisions that will allow them to be widely available in the bay area at large.

Yes and people have been eagerly awaiting the broader adoption of this allegedly inevitable technology for a decade now, which is exactly my point

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#106

Post by bitwize »

themafia wrote: post #75

A similar Luddite view formed in the 1990s. It turns out humanity constantly beats the expectations of economists. It makes you wonder if the "science" of economy is almost entirely bankrupt either in morality or imagination or same dangerous combination of both. > Humanity simply does not have a strategy to ensure it remains safe through RSI. Turn off the power. It's pretty simple. Leave it to an economist to forget…

Science fiction authors have had to grapple with the fact that it's nearly impossible to build a robot out of metal, plastic, or composite material that has the physical performance characteristics (strength, durability) of a human body and weighs just as much. You can build a strong robot but it'll be heavy. The better SF authors, if they've need of robots of mere human weight, will make them comically fragile.

The same is even more true of our intelligence. We're building computers with the size and power consumption characteristics of entire cities to do things that may almost, but not quite, match what our brains do with a kilogram and a half of mass and about 20 watts at the top end of power consumption.

The only way we are ever going to match that with technology is to run AI workloads on human brain tissue, which Rick-and-Morty level horror is being actively worked on as I understand it. The original concept for The Matrix wherein the machines used humans to run compute workloads on their brains actually kind of makes sense.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#108

Post by nopinsight »

RandomLensman wrote: post #103
nopinsight wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things in the real world often take longer than expected. Still, in cities where Waymo operates, many people routinely ride autonomous vehicles and prefer them. For software, however, a rapid turn is often a possibility. See: AI for coding over the last 3-4 years. AI autocomplete --> AI coding assistants --> vibe coding --> agent orchestration Coders can now accomplish work that used to take a week or longer in a cou…

But there is also still a huge part that doesn't run on software with so far little change.

With incessant advances in robotics, how long would that continue to be the case?

Should we start preparing for something that could be world-changing in the next 10-20 years?

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#109

Post by danaris »

This article posits "recursive self-improvement"—which is just a more-technical name for the supposed Singularity.

There is no evidence that we are currently on a path that leads to the Singularity.

There is not yet any evidence that the Singularity is more than science fiction.

It is effectively an article of religion—the Rapture, but for techbros. Indeed, it is what some of them are pinning all their hopes on; after all, if they can recursively-self-improve their way to artificial superintelligence, then and only then could the absurd investments of companies like OpenAI actually prove worthwhile.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#110

Post by RandomLensman »

nopinsight wrote: post #108
RandomLensman wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there is also still a huge part that doesn't run on software with so far little change.

With incessant advances in robotics, how long would that continue to be the case? Should we start preparing for something that could be world-changing in the next 10-20 years?

For how the world might change in 10-20? I'd say no need to prepare, too many hypotheticals.
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