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Hetzner Price Adjustment

docs.hetzner.com

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Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#421

Post by TacticalCoder »

originalvichy wrote: post #80
binarymax wrote: post #14

This is just the reality of hardware costs now. RAM and Disk are scarce, prices have skyrocketed. I wonder how much leverage the hyperscalers like AWS/GCP/Azure have on their own supply chain to keep costs level in their clouds.

This is the real risk after the slow death of personal computing. Even internet resources like servers will be hoarded by the hyperscalers that are the only ones who can afford to order years of compute hardware in advance. I’ve already started buying cheap old business PCs just in case I’ll ever need to have simple barebones machines to run things on.

> I’ve already started buying cheap old business PCs just in case I’ll ever need to have simple barebones machines to run things on.

Hmmmm...

That's a bit dramatic. I did buy a few SSDs when RAM prices started going up for I didn't want to be facing a shortage of SSDs but China is already very busy at producing cheap server motherboards: gone are the days where he only option for a server motherboard was a $1000 one. There are ultra cheap, and fully functional, chinese motherboards now.

I'm totally convinced China is not going to sit doing nothing: if RAM prices goes up and there's a business opportunity, China is going to seize it and start producing lots of RAM.

We did see "RAM price quadruple in no time so nobody had time to adapt", that's for sure.

But I'm really not sure it's "RAM prices goes 4x and then the world stays as it is and nobody adapts for decades to come".

Also as to used servers: people ordering years of compute hardware in advance aren't hoarding five years old servers.

Heck, a ten years old Xeon machine is plenty capable and the usual people are buying stocks of those (from companies updating their fleet), refurbishing them and reselling them one by one on the usual marketplace, at the same prices (OK maybe instead of 150 EUR it's now 200 EUR if there's 64 GB of ECC RAM).

My usual seller is doing its business as usual although we're well into the memory craze.

Just to put things into perspective: the "PC sales crash" from 2021 to 2024 saw, what, a 20% drop, 10% of which already recovered. In 4 years more than a billion PCs were produced.

A PC is not a rare thing. We won't run out of PCs, just like we won't run out of cheap used ten years old Xeon servers.

But OK you got me: I may contact my seller and hoard two or three more just in case.

Sheesh is HN full of paranoid people and, darn, is it contagious.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#422

Post by ericd »

dakolli wrote: post #393
ericd wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far, there are more jobs.

What's your source? The Bureau of labor statistics that is marking most of unemployed people as "not seeking employment" because they aren't walking into workforce centers?

Payrolls are up about 214k in March, 180k in April, and 140k in May. The BLS data is from broad monthly surveys, not people showing up in workforce centers.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#423

Post by akerl_ »

windexh8er wrote: post #420
tptacek wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does there need to be an "upside" legible to our profession?

Because the alternative is admitting the main upside so far is: a few VCs and early employees get yacht money while everyone else gets a gate-kept chatbot and constant fear mongering. But hey, I guess we all have our own opinion of " upside ".

Isn’t this the same thing every other industry and market has been experiencing with technology, automation, etc. for decades, while tech workers basked in their joy at being safe from being replaced because we were the ones powering the replacing?

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#425

Post by tptacek »

windexh8er wrote: post #420
tptacek wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does there need to be an "upside" legible to our profession?

Because the alternative is admitting the main upside so far is: a few VCs and early employees get yacht money while everyone else gets a gate-kept chatbot and constant fear mongering. But hey, I guess we all have our own opinion of " upside ".

I mean, that very well could be the case. It often is the case with any kind of automation. There's a plausible claim that things will turn out fine, and another plausible claim that it could be a disaster for the profession. But whether or not it's a disaster for professional developers is separable from whether (a) it's a disaster for, like, society, and (b) whether or not it fundamentally is an important new fact about the world --- like, whether we're OK with it or not, it does appear likely that a huge swathe of professional software development work is fully automatable.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#427

Post by bourbonproof »

Shank wrote: post #189
eugenekolo wrote: post #42

It really is an absolute massive jump. Have no clue what's going on in the back to warrant a 3x increase... 25-50%, sure.. but 3x is wild.

> Have no clue what's going on in the back Hetzner and OVH and other bare metal but low cost providers use commodity hardware. When that commodity hardware increases there is simply no other option. The secret to the success of these providers is using common off-the-shelf hardware instead of specialized server hardware, which is now being cannibalized.

doesn't this imply that they buy massive hardware and thus replace their hardware constantly? At what rate? It seems the rate is massive. I'd gladly use a 4year old server for the old price.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#429

Post by Implicated »

Just throwing it out there I've got an AX162-R (48c EPYC) with 128GB additional memory (384GB DDR5 total) that's been running a side project of mine for a year or so... I could be talked into moving that project if someone had a need for the hardware.

Re: Hetzner Price Adjustment

#430

Post by ksec »

ryandvm wrote: post #280

[flagged]

>(world's first trillionaire anyone?)

With some work on crypto many people could be a trillionaire on paper. Whether it translate to actual wealth and liquidity is another matter. We are talking about P/E of 300 / P/S of close to 100 for Tesla and SpaceX.

>When exactly are the upsides going to hit?

A lot of people take Moore's law, or technology improvement as granted. It will always come. It will always become cheaper. But none of that is true. Massive R&D is required along with ROI.

The AI Boom pushed a lot of technology forward by at least 2 - 3 years or 1 cycle. What normally would have taken 10 years to happen is now getting close to 5 years. We were suppose to stagnate or slow down with 3nm and 2nm, we are now rushing to push through everything from interconnect, smaller transistor and massive increase in Foundry capacity. PCI-Express 8.0, Nvidia Photonics, DRAM Improvement, HBM, HBF, even capacitor, immersive cooling. I don't even record the last time we had such a massive shift and changes in hardware technology. Even the start of smartphone era wasn't like this as majority of its start was picking on lower end PC components. Instead the AI is pushing the frontier hardware technology. With multiple trillion companies, insane appetite from market. We are basically saying we have Trillions to spend over the next 5 years. Give me everything you have got.

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