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Anthropic's Safety Superpower
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Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#72The whole thesis falls apart though. You can't be on your way to "power over everything" and get distilled into free Chinese models within months. Pick one. The bottleneck is compute and data, not the model. That's why they could only gate it for a bit. The ITAR thing proves it: no nationality controls in place, so the only option was killing the whole thing. Not exactly what an all-powerful gatekeeper does.
I disagree. It is not the model alone. It needs a system which capitalizes on it. And this is very complex. Hardware, software, architecture - it takes a lot to get it right. Try running the latest OS models on a normal Mac or PC. Claude Fable and Mythos are systems not just pure models. And of course marketing. Don't believe the hype. I think Claude is often times underwhelming. Security concerns are also a concern…
> > The bottleneck is compute and data, not the model.
> I disagree. It is not the model alone. It needs a system which capitalizes on it. And this is very complex. Hardware, software, architecture - it takes a lot to get it right.
What do you disagree with exactly?
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#73Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#74The whole thesis falls apart though. You can't be on your way to "power over everything" and get distilled into free Chinese models within months. Pick one. The bottleneck is compute and data, not the model. That's why they could only gate it for a bit. The ITAR thing proves it: no nationality controls in place, so the only option was killing the whole thing. Not exactly what an all-powerful gatekeeper does.
> The whole thesis falls apart though. You can't be on your way to "power over everything" and get distilled into free Chinese models within months. Pick one. But is that last part actually true though? Sure, there might be 600B+ models available for download and local inference if you have the hardware, but does the users who use Anthropic switch over to those even if they're available even as hosted models? Seems l…
> Anthropic and Claude remains very popular among the people who use LLMs
Only because someone else is paying the bills. I use Claude Opus at work because my employer pays for the tokens and encourages me to do it.
At home, I use DeepSeek Flash. It's not as good, but it's maybe 0.7 quality for 0.001 cost.
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is how the US gov does business now, capricious and vengeful. Textbook retaliation for not letting them use an abliterated version of Claude in weapons systems. This effectively renders any US closed model useless for any foreign company. Could happen to OpenAI, Google, etc. Too much of a risk to implement something that can be yanked out because the company didn’t behave the way they want. Looks like it’s time…
This is a suicide shot for the American economy. The numbers only lined up for AI to rescue the USA from its debt if it captured a significant portion of the world's AI spend, and while it was a longshot before, there's basically zero percent chance the world trusts American AI when the government is pulling strings.
It was a zero percent chance anyway. Look at Europe working to leave American software behind in recent years. And it was greatly accelerated by leveraging American AI to build the exit.
You can read it all over HN. It's about weakening American influence and building Eurocentric economies and influence. And exercising the same level of choice that Americans prefer as well. Americans also want to escape Google, Microsoft and Apple and more. They've all been caught investing too heavily in government influence and thought control (aka marketing).
And on the other side of that, an American company that deprives the US of AI for defense, is defacto weakening American defense because competition militaries will gain a technological edge by simply taking control of AI companies in their country which the US hasn't done (yet).
There are very valid arguments on both sides, I think.
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
Consider this quote from the main article... "When you further combine this realization with the company’s pronouncements about AI’s ability to conduct all economic activity, you realize that Anthropic’s leadership effectively wants to have power over everything and everyone." This is fearful stuff on all sides, and none of the people involved might realistically be able to navigate the danger.
the whole thing playing out as expected. if you think about it, the only question is the timeline. the next model with a gap to mythos as mythos is to opus will be controlled technology from the get-go. the one after it may be top secret.
Or OpenAI will pay Trump's regime's bribe and they'll suddenly realise that it does not need controlling and they're free to sell it?
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#77Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s really what Dario wants. Let’s hope he doesn’t get it
what Dario wants is to retain any influence whatsover on how the research progresses before the inevitable nationalization of the frontier. he gets to keep the N-2 tech and maybe influence the N-1 tech, but the only influence on the frontier he has is today; whatever he imprints in the pipeline the government takes over. IOW I don't think he thinks in the same categories as most folks here.
N-1? N-2?
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#78> has perfect alignment between talent and mission and business.
Do they have it or do they just sell it?
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#79(reposted) As I understand it, ITAR regulations for export controls have just been applied to any form of Mythos. These are overseen by U.S. Departments of State and Commerce, and forbid foreign nationals from access to any form of Mythos, either within or outside the U.S. Only U.S. citizens and immigrants that are holders of a "green card" may now access Mythos. It appears that Anthropic does not have internal contr…
Could Anthropic relocate to a different country?
They cannot do it. Apart from all the practical, technical and talent reasons, it would still be exporting forbidden stuff.
The signal is clear enough though for the next Anthropic..
Re: Anthropic's Safety Superpower
#80The whole thesis falls apart though. You can't be on your way to "power over everything" and get distilled into free Chinese models within months. Pick one. The bottleneck is compute and data, not the model. That's why they could only gate it for a bit. The ITAR thing proves it: no nationality controls in place, so the only option was killing the whole thing. Not exactly what an all-powerful gatekeeper does.
The distilled versions miss the spark of the model. Its like they land in the uncanny valley of models.
They get to 80% of the top models for 10x cheaper, unless you don't care about the money at all, it's hard to ignore.