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A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

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291–300 of 429 posts

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#291
post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

> So, exactly what is the source of skepticism?

You were a skeptic; you tell us?

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This whole comment rests on a very big assumption that these rates will never recover. Just because you can fit a trend line doesn’t mean the projections will pan out. It could just as easily be the case that once population starts meaningfully decreasing, the opportunity cost of children will also decrease and fertility rates will recover. This happens all the time in nature. Our population absolutely exploded over…

>This whole comment rests on a very big assumption that these rates will never recover. J The opposite, actually. Your assumption is that the rates bounce up and down, mostly because you don't want to believe there's a problem. The rates are transmissible, older generations to the younger. No one growing up in a world where people have few or just one child will say to themselves "hey, you know what, I want 10 kids w…

"More nonsense. Our population isn't exploding, it's just big."

If graph not exponential, why exponential shaped? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you are informed, you hold to account the person responsible. The entire issue of incentives to consume being a reason to blame consumers, is obviated when there are entire industries that have spent significant amounts of money and capital to ensure that voters cannot come to a consensus. The science on global warming was clear eons ago. The true revolution has been in scientists learning how weak facts are whe…

At some point, people should agree they are responsible for the opinions they hold. Otherwise there's no point even arguing, because the only alternatives are that (1) the modern society fails, or (2) we will have an iron-fisted eco-fascist ruler who will "restore the balance" by stomping on people's will.

>we will have an iron-fisted eco-fascist ruler who will "restore the balance" by stomping on people's will.

I've heard people call this idea "climate Stalin" and frankly I'm more convinced every day it's that or extinction

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When will the trend recover? When civilization falls to the point that nobody can make birth control pills, if not before.

> When civilization falls to the point that nobody can make birth control pills, if not before. This won't save us. By the time civilization can't make birth control pills, it also means we've lost advanced medical care and now maternal/infant mortality kicks in. Nearly every baby born now survives into adulthood, barring rare misfortunes. But the idea that obstetrics will still be cruising along while we can't crank…

> We'll see 0.1 fertility rates in our lifetimes

I'd take that bet. Except... the term of the bet is "in our lifetimes", which means that it ends when one of us dies, which means that collecting is going to be a problem.

For the record, I'm 64. "In my lifetime" is somewhere between 1 day and 40 years.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#295
post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

My source of climate skepticisms is based on the following: 1) We know that the Earth was much warmer in the past, including the Medieval Warming Period. We know that the Alps were warm enough so that the Iceman could pass through them without protection from the cold, and yet he was found encased in ice. 2) We know that the Earth is cooler now than in the past. And it's also hotter than it was in the past. 3) We kno…

> Until someone can reconcile these facts, and they can say distinctively that the rise in temperature we see right now isn't the same reason as before

This has literally been done, you're just ignorant

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Until someone can reconcile these facts, and they can say distinctively that the rise in temperature we see right now isn't the same reason as before, I'm going to believe that temperature will moderate and cool, just like it did in the past. Would you indulge me and see if this one chart might change your mind? It includes each of your data points. https://xkcd.com/1732/

A cartoon purporting to know the localized temperatures around the world going back 20,000 years is not science.

And yet, here you are

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#297
post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

I’ve come to terms with the fact that there is no stopping human consumption. It is simply not possible to get enough people to reduce to make an impact. The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof. The only way is ‘up and out’ developing clean, cheap methods of energy generation and lobbying to get that infrastructure built out as quickly as possible. At this point, investing more in Fo…

> I’ve come to terms with the fact that there is no stopping human consumption.

I really felt _sure_ that billionaires and monarchs and rest of the ruling class flying their private jets to meet their private mega yachts before attending very important meetings in luxury chalets where they lecture the filthy commoners about how horrible and greedy they are for not wanting to eat cockroaches and pay them more taxes for the greater good was going to do it. Are you sure that a few more decades of that won't finally convince people how awful they are?

> It is simply not possible to get enough people to reduce to make an impact. The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof. The only way is ‘up and out’ developing clean, cheap methods of energy generation and lobbying to get that infrastructure built out as quickly as possible. At this point, investing more in Fossil fuels is a joke and anyone claiming “coal” or whatever is the future

If only the "environment" movements had failed. They were instrumental in destroying nuclear power, with support of fossil fuel interests. The coal industry has had no better friend than the anti-nuclear "green" movement in the past 50 years.

> is simply a conman or a clown.

There's lots of conmen and clowns around. The trick is not sniffing out the ones twirling their mustaches and adjusting their monocles while demolishing orphanages, it's the ones who tell you things that make you feel good that are the dangerous ones. That's where the "con" in conmen comes from.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no, he's engaging into a classical "tu queque" that adds nothing but noise to the discussion, maybe except some division between classes and pointless finger-pointing

I wish it were the case that class warfare would be sufficient to solve the climate problem. But I don’t really see any alignment between economic class and ecological consciousness where I live. Are all the poor and middle class folks walking and biking in your part of the world? I mean for sure there are some such places but in most parts of the US you’re no less likely to find a pickup in the garage of someone at…

The poor and middle class don't own the factories, oil fields, and politicians that are perpetuating the problem

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wish it were the case that class warfare would be sufficient to solve the climate problem. But I don’t really see any alignment between economic class and ecological consciousness where I live. Are all the poor and middle class folks walking and biking in your part of the world? I mean for sure there are some such places but in most parts of the US you’re no less likely to find a pickup in the garage of someone at…

The poor and middle class don't own the factories, oil fields, and politicians that are perpetuating the problem

Yes but they still make choices that reveal their preferences.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#300
post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

I’ve come to terms with the fact that there is no stopping human consumption. It is simply not possible to get enough people to reduce to make an impact. The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof. The only way is ‘up and out’ developing clean, cheap methods of energy generation and lobbying to get that infrastructure built out as quickly as possible. At this point, investing more in Fo…

Ironically the "environmental" movement has in some ways actually set us back by opposing clean, safe nuclear power.
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