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FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

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Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#11

Post by lesuorac »

Shank wrote: post #5

Liquidity has value too. Many FTX customers needed immediate liquidity. If you need immediate liquidity the value proposition years later is meaningless for most people because most people can’t get any bridge financing to cover the gap. Mt. Gox also ran a fractional exchange for a long time until the bottom fell out. The trouble is that you simply can’t run an unannounced fractional exchange.

Isn't the bigger issue with the parent's argument that its comparing apples and oranges?

Like the customers were largely owed _not_ USD and so compared the USD value owed _4 years ago_ to the _current day_ USD value of something else that wasn't owed is just not correct.

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To do some of the math, assuming all the funds owed were bitcoin then 9 Billion / $17,000 ~= 47 thousand BTC owed.

At current $64k/BTC prices that's roughly $30 Billion. Which while still lower than $75B is much higher than just $9B and doesn't excuse SBF from fraudulently and very publicly claiming that all the money invested as backed 1:1 when it wasn't.

I also don't know how much more FTX's stake would be diluted as well and another commentator talked about nearly half so then it might not cover the "actual" owed value.

Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#13

Post by jawiggins »

From the SBF trial:

> Jury leave, witness [Ellison] leaves.

> Judge: We can talk about [Anthopic] What about it?

> AUSA: Post-collapse performance is irrelevant.

> SBF's lawyer: It was a $91 million investment now worth $1 billion.

> Judge Kaplan: The crime charged is that he took the money.

https://x.com/innercitypress/status/1712199547915813241

Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#16

Post by adam_rida »

KingMachiavelli wrote: post #3

Assuming they would not have liquidated it earlier (perhaps via some semi-legal instrument) to cover past or future bad decisions. Crypto certainly isn’t doing well now. The 7.84% state would probably be significantly diluted over this time frame so 4-5% is probably a more accurate estimate but perhaps high estimate.

[dead]

Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#17

Post by adam_rida »

Shank wrote: post #5

Liquidity has value too. Many FTX customers needed immediate liquidity. If you need immediate liquidity the value proposition years later is meaningless for most people because most people can’t get any bridge financing to cover the gap. Mt. Gox also ran a fractional exchange for a long time until the bottom fell out. The trouble is that you simply can’t run an unannounced fractional exchange.

[dead]

Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#19

Post by Aurornis »

> That implies the former FTX stake would be worth about $75B before further dilution.

> FTX’s customer shortfall was roughly $8B to $9B.

I think these hindsight analyses are interesting because they're leading a lot of into retroactively playing devil's advocate for SBF.

It is interesting to imagine a world where FTX made a one-time oopsie, broke some laws to cover it up, but then put all the money back and recovered like nothing ever happened.

You have to remember that this was literally their plan, though. They tried that. It didn't work.

If it had worked, they would have had to spend years hiding the facts from auditors and hoping that none of their employees ever leaked the info or tried to claim a whistleblower reward for what they knew.

If they had gotten past all of that, their continued existence would hinge on them not getting into the same position again. I have my doubts about that. Usually when people in these positions get away with their crimes they are only emboldened to continue taking the same or more risks in the future.

Re: FTX's former Anthropic stake would be worth about $75B at today's valuation

#20

Post by TacticalCoder »

avree wrote: post #18

Yeah, and if he had taken all that money, bet it on black, and won in roulette a couple times, he'd have also made a killing. Didn't mean it was the right strategy or a moral decision with people's savings.

> Didn't mean it was the right strategy or a moral decision with people's savings.

That's exactly what the US judging SBF said: those shares were acquired will stolen funds.

Not only that: it's obvious, now that we know that the Amodei behind Anthropic are from that same despicable EA movement as SBF, that these were EA-bros helping each other (with stolen funds).

Like EA's guru who acquired a 15 million pounds mansion in the UK with Alameda/FTX stolen funds "gifted" by SBF. This mansion, AFAIK, hasn't been clawed back yet but I know for a fact that misappropriated funds in the "Hermes" fund in the Bernie Madoff ponzi have been clawed back for more than a decade after the fact.

These things takes time: so hopefully at some point this little EA clique gets this mansion seized.

P.S: as a sidenote it's interesting that they didn't effectively altruistically handed that mansion back when they "learned" (as if they didn't know it) that SBF was scamming users.

P.P.S: the returns promised in the Alameda leaflet, before FTX even existed, were already bullshit. SBF was a scammer from day one.

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