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A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

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Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#91

Post by anonym29 »

card_zero wrote: post #81
anonym29 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So, exactly what is the source of skepticism? We should define climate skepticism, to avoid indicting a strawman. I'd start with my definition, as someone with unorthodox views on climate that often place me at odds with progressives. It may be easier to start with the elements we agree on. Is the climate changing? Yes, obviously, visibly, measurably. Do human activities, including burning of coal and hydrocarbons,…

You seem to be saying the temperature change is mainly natural? But the expected natural change in the present era is slow and downward, I think. I mean you have two separate points here, one is "adapt" and the other is "nothing can be done", which itself can be picked apart into different specific things that can't be done, such as on the one hand getting everybody to behave themselves conscientiously with one mind,…

I am saying that earth's average temperature has raised by 23° C before with zero human impact, and it will raise by as much as 23° C again, even if you cut all human carbon emissions to zero overnight (itself an effective impossibility for other reasons).

The average global temperature raising by even 2°C has catastrophic and devastating impacts to humanity, to say nothing of it raising by 20°.

We can't stop or prevent global average temperatures from rising, even if we do cut emissions to zero.

What we can prevent is the widespread loss of life (human, plants, and animals) and prosperity. Preventing loss of life and prosperity is good, and it's an achievable goal, so we should pursue that goal.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#92

Post by baq »

esafak wrote: post #74
Tarsul wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In most countries the public "believes" in climate change. But it don't matter: People still consume much more than the planet can bear. Because they like to consume. And because they don't want to change "if no one else does it" (tragedy of the commons). So you're asking the wrong question (maybe not for a US audience, I give you that). The real question would be: How to change the behavior of a population? My best…

A carbon tax would change behavior in short order. The challenge is introducing then maintaining it; people can always vote it out. I think left-leaning jurisdictions should definitely give it a try.

the challenge in carbon tax isn't the people who vote it out, it's the people who never vote it in in the country next door (or on the other side of the world, it hardly matters)

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#93

Post by ro_sharp »

Jeff_Brown wrote: post #80
jackyinger wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The skepticism is from people who are making money emitting CO2 and don’t want to stop making money in the same old way. It is well documented that oil companies have been sewing skepticism for decades, go figure.

The idea that a producer is at fault and not also the consumer paying them to do that is strange to me.

As long as the pollution is a negative externality and the polluting option is (immediately) cheaper, people (especially poorer people) will choose the cheaper option.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#95

Post by coryrc »

Avicebron wrote: post #72
CalRobert wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The crazy thing is that we have basically everything we need right now. You can live in a well-insulated fully electric home powered by renewable energy and have most things you need within a walk, bike, or public transport ride away, _OR_ use an electric car for the things that aren't. If you combine that with a mostly-plant based diet (or at _least_ swapping chicken for most of your beef and lamb) and have 2 kids o…

> You can live in a well-insulated fully electric home powered by renewable energy and have most things you need within a walk, bike, or public transport ride away, _OR_ use an electric car for the things that aren't. For this to be the most effective it really needs to be deployed somewhere like India. How are they coming along with that?

They have tons of people using small vehicles, bicycles and public transport. Unfortunately they aren't following China in mass rollout of solar photovoltaic; 90% of their energy consumption is fossil fuels:

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/india

USA is at 80%, which isn't much better, but at least trending down:

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/united-states

China is also at 80%, but trending down far steeper:

https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#96

Post by awongh »

Kon5ole wrote: post #87

I don't know if it's too late to stop the worst case scenarios of global warming yet or if there's still time, but it doesn't seem to be happening anyway. The world can't deal with something that requires global concentrated efforts. However, I do think we have time to prepare for the worst case scenarios, and individual countries and states can do that efficiently on their own. Improve evacuation routines in floodab…

Since covid I’ve actually become less convinced of this. Yes there were national interests at play and there was a lot of general chaos.

But. The level of international coordination with vaccine rollouts and agreements between countries was way more than I had initially expected. Of course this feeling depends on what your own baseline expectations are.

My takeaway was that if the conditions arise that we all decide to do something about climate change (because of political conditions or because of actual effects) we (humanity) are willing to make big sudden changes

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#97

Post by mc32 »

CalRobert wrote: post #66
yoyohello13 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve come to terms with the fact that there is no stopping human consumption. It is simply not possible to get enough people to reduce to make an impact. The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof. The only way is ‘up and out’ developing clean, cheap methods of energy generation and lobbying to get that infrastructure built out as quickly as possible. At this point, investing more in Fo…

The crazy thing is that we have basically everything we need right now. You can live in a well-insulated fully electric home powered by renewable energy and have most things you need within a walk, bike, or public transport ride away, _OR_ use an electric car for the things that aren't. If you combine that with a mostly-plant based diet (or at _least_ swapping chicken for most of your beef and lamb) and have 2 kids o…

All of the Western nations are at 2 kids or fewer but also so are China and India. Most of the 2+ children come from the ME and subsaharan Africa and areas in Oceania/SEAsia, Maybe some parts of South America. One could slow consumption by not importing people from low carbon footprint into high carbon footprint countries -though many countries, except Japan, aren't comfortable adjusting to lower populations.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#98

Post by flyinglizard »

supertroop wrote: post #69
mistrial9 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof superficial and incorrect

Explain your reasoning or stop wasting bits.

Environmental movements had a huge impact on public awareness and climate change mitigation. It sure didn’t come from the government themselves. We take many everyday steps to reduce our environmental impact, from energy to transportation to building to recycling. It’s all happening to one degree or another pretty much everywhere.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#99

Post by coryrc »

snovv_crash wrote: post #49
yoyohello13 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve come to terms with the fact that there is no stopping human consumption. It is simply not possible to get enough people to reduce to make an impact. The failure of the environment movements over the last 60 years are proof. The only way is ‘up and out’ developing clean, cheap methods of energy generation and lobbying to get that infrastructure built out as quickly as possible. At this point, investing more in Fo…

Agreed. You aren't going to convince people in India that their children should stay poor when there is an option to uplift them. That's an extra billion people of energy and material needs, all by itself.

The question is whether you use solar PV or build more coal plants to supply them. The latter makes people sicker, but more dependent on the government, so you can guess which one gets the tax breaks and which one gets tariffs and international politics to make it more expensive to acquire.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#100

Post by card_zero »

anonym29 wrote: post #91
card_zero wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be saying the temperature change is mainly natural? But the expected natural change in the present era is slow and downward, I think. I mean you have two separate points here, one is "adapt" and the other is "nothing can be done", which itself can be picked apart into different specific things that can't be done, such as on the one hand getting everybody to behave themselves conscientiously with one mind,…

I am saying that earth's average temperature has raised by 23° C before with zero human impact, and it will raise by as much as 23° C again, even if you cut all human carbon emissions to zero overnight (itself an effective impossibility for other reasons). The average global temperature raising by even 2°C has catastrophic and devastating impacts to humanity, to say nothing of it raising by 20°. We can't stop or prev…

There's two reasons why temperature increases can't be stopped (without actually sending the heat away somewhere, such as into space): the first one is lag in the system if we cut emissions to zero, and the second is natural change in maybe 300 million years. Why bother mentioning the second of those?
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