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How to earn a billion dollars

paulgraham.com

341–350 of 1001 posts

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#341
"“Destruction becomes the principal commodity produced by capital. Militarism will lead accumulation, which will theoretically demolish any limit to capital.”

The Accumulation of Waste, Kadri, https://brill.com/display/book/9789004548022/front-7.xml

Monopoly Capitalism, Baran and Sweezy

https://archive.org/details/monopolycapitale00bara

Labor and Monopoly Capital, Harry Braverman https://ia801604.us.archive.org/12/items/023978561/Braverman...

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#342
But "earning" does not mean "obtain without cheating"! Nobody (that I have spoken to) speaks of earning their lottery winnings. The claim is that owning a company worth a billion dollars is more like winning the lottery than it is like earning money. And it is!

The whole discussion about exponential growth is idiotic and not worth responding to. But if you think of what he actually means - having a total addressable market of at least a billion dollars and being able to effectively capture it - it is obviously primarily due to factors outside of your control. The sort of company PG is talking about typically revolves around a good technology that has a network effect somewhere that leads to market concentration. People do not get good ideas by working hard, and markets are not made easily monopolizable by hard work. Execution of an idea requires hard work, but companies that are only good at execution do not win.

Obviously you can engage in hard work to improve your odds. But the returns are out of scale with the hard work. This is all people mean when they talk about "earning" money - if it's in proportion with your work, you earned it; if it isn't, you didn't.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#343
post #124

She meant impossible in that one doesn't earn a billion dollars through work alone. The only way to get there is to set up a structure that extracts a billion dollars from a market (usually by building a structure that's more efficient but also generates externalities that are not borne by the person getting the billion dollars). pg's reading of it is so blunt and misrepresentative that I'm nervous about what kind of…

I never understood why Joel Spolsky stopped blogging. His reason was basically (paraphrasing) that his business grew too big and mature for him to keep writing. It sounded nonsense to me by the time. And now comparing PG's writing today and what he wrote 10~15 years ago, I finally get what Joel means.

[deleted]

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#345
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pg is or was the owner of a very influential venture capital fund, that created projects such as Uber and AirBNB. He knows all about setting up structures to extract value, and he also knows which framing makes people more sympathetic instead of angry.

>pg is or was the owner of a very influential venture capital fund, that created projects such as Uber Uber was not a YCombinator company. For some unexplained reason, many mistakenly think it was a YC startup but it's not correct. (The gp's comment is an example of how chatbots hallucinate because they train on the text of people unintentionally hallucinating.)

Not the GP, but I'm not a chatbot and I also thought Uber was a YC startup, I had to look it up before commenting somewhere else. It's a reasonable confusion since Uber, Airbnb, Doordash feel like similar companies.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#346
You can tell that he doesn’t really think too deeply about any of this, because the way he wants to illustrate the point is by typing the numbers into a calculator.

It’s as if the money comes right up out of thin air, isn’t it?

He inadvertently gets close when he talks about Facebook being about people doing stalking. PG, is stalking a good thing or a bad thing, hmmm?

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#347
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there are many arguments against AOC's comments, but I agree that PG here is misrepresenting her point. I don't think anyone reading PG's blog is clueless about the power of compounding or the difference between salary and wealth through asset growth. Her point is essentially whether the entire capital system is "fair." And to be fair to PG I don't think AOC articulated a particularly strong point either.

He very explicitly engaged with her claim that the system is unfair/unethical, and whether you agree with him or not, he argued against it: > What [AOC] meant was that it's impossible to get that rich without doing something bad — without cheating in some way... The reason [my founder's] startup was growing so fast was simply that users loved what she'd built. So she could feel from her own experience how wrong [AOC]…

He only really addresses the fact that the system can be nasty. It can be and regularly is, but he only argues that a company doesn't have to be nasty, so he can conveniently ignore specific examples. But the system is not just nasty (and AOC mentions this). It also disproportionately rewards good fortune. That's not cheating, since anyone can have good fortune, but it is unfair, since fortune is not a consequence of hard work or ethical behaviour.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#348

Impressed at the commentary here, which correctly points out Paul dodges the entire issue at hand. Three things can be true: 1. Growing at a rapid rate over long periods of time is hard , doable and rewarding 2. Incentivizing the discovery of these things is good for society. 3. Nonethless there is and should be a limit to wealth acquisition, given moral hazard. To make a similarly glib counterargument to Paul G: If…

>1. Growing at a rapid rate over long periods of time is hard, doable and rewarding

and depends on factors outside your control.

This last is a critical caveat, and really the crux of the argument. It's not about cheating, but the limits of predictability in complex dynamic systems.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#349
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there are many arguments against AOC's comments, but I agree that PG here is misrepresenting her point. I don't think anyone reading PG's blog is clueless about the power of compounding or the difference between salary and wealth through asset growth. Her point is essentially whether the entire capital system is "fair." And to be fair to PG I don't think AOC articulated a particularly strong point either.

He very explicitly engaged with her claim that the system is unfair/unethical, and whether you agree with him or not, he argued against it: > What [AOC] meant was that it's impossible to get that rich without doing something bad — without cheating in some way... The reason [my founder's] startup was growing so fast was simply that users loved what she'd built. So she could feel from her own experience how wrong [AOC]…

How often does this actually happen? People have been studying capitalism for more than a 100 years and this argument has been rehashed for a long time. Free market capitalism will only allow a startup to gain ground via innovation and offering of a superior product or service if the market is not totally free and monopolies are not allowed to form. Monopoly is the natural end state for capitalism.

Furthermore, the company motivated by profit that does not have to pay for polluting the environment will also pollute the environment. Regulation is also necessary to pay for long term externalities and other boom and bust cycles. There is nothing new in PG take except COPE and blame shifting about the increasing inequality and other societal and environmental issues.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#350

> So you can imagine how astonished I was last month when an American politician said that it was impossible to earn a billion dollars. I felt like a skating coach hearing someone say that it's impossible to do a triple axel. Of course it's possible. It's hard, but it's possible. "Earning a billion", to the skating coach, is like pulling off a dodeca-axel. It's not gonna happen through mere pluck, and it's probably g…

You’re suggesting that selling others’ talent isn’t legitimate “earning”? Why?

Because they believe in the Marxist labor theory of value, where apparently it's theft if someone else uses your labor to make something more than you could make yourself, not understanding the fact that that's not how labor markets and total human collaboration works to make something more than the sum of individuals.
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