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How to earn a billion dollars

paulgraham.com

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Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#31

Post by smallmancontrov »

andai wrote: post #16
smallmancontrov wrote: post #3

In creative destruction, you can do an accounting sleight of hand by attributing credit for creation while ignoring blame for destruction even though the two are linked. This is a technology + investing forum and all of us agree that in general creative destruction processes are enormously net positive, but they frequently do kick off a toxic byproduct in the form of said destruction (e.g. Uber and displaced taxi dri…

What's the byproduct of human-level AI and robotics?

Displaced workers.

I mean, maaaaaybe a Jevon's Paradox kicks into play with human labor and replacing people with robots somehow creates even more jobs, but whenever someone says this your immediate response should be: "ok, now put your money where your mouth is and bet on it by strengthening the social safety net."

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#32

Post by [deleted] »

goyozi wrote: post #6

Holy smokes, one could call this condescending but assuming both politicians and an average reader don’t understand how exponents work feels a step above. And that’s before you get to the part where it’s all about a great idea and hard work and definitely zero exploitation while mentioning examples like Apple, Facebook or Airbnb.

[deleted]

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#33

Post by yawpitch »

Absent circumstances of four digit inflation rates, one cannot earn a billion dollars… one can only accumulate a billion dollars.

If one ever does so, one has definitely done something morally indefensible.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#34

Post by reactordev »

cma wrote: post #21
tsimionescu wrote: post #5

So nice of pg to mention AirBnB as one of his examples of what a successful startup who "doesn't cheat" means. They just were great people with a great idea who found a market for something people wanted that no one had thought about before, and poof, exponential math billionaires who earned it! Of course, we'll ignore the huge issues that Airbnb created for cities, customers, and providers. We'll ignore the way they…

There was also the whole Craigslist spam stuff airbnb did to bootstrap growth

Paired right next to the “personals” ads they used to have.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#35

Post by theturtletalks »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #3

In creative destruction, you can do an accounting sleight of hand by attributing credit for creation while ignoring blame for destruction even though the two are linked. This is a technology + investing forum and all of us agree that in general creative destruction processes are enormously net positive, but they frequently do kick off a toxic byproduct in the form of said destruction (e.g. Uber and displaced taxi dri…

When AI melts away these rent seeking marketplaces like Uber, Doordash, Amazon, etc, they won’t go as quietly as the people they displaced.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#36

Post by zozbot234 »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #3

In creative destruction, you can do an accounting sleight of hand by attributing credit for creation while ignoring blame for destruction even though the two are linked. This is a technology + investing forum and all of us agree that in general creative destruction processes are enormously net positive, but they frequently do kick off a toxic byproduct in the form of said destruction (e.g. Uber and displaced taxi dri…

There's no resource destruction involved in displacing taxi drivers. Taxi medallions are a rent-seeking scheme, there's no real scarcity involved. Most other instances of "creative destruction" are like that, the capital simply gets repurposed at negligible social cost and only excess profits disappear.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#38

Post by vrganj »

Yikes.

There is no ethical way to become a billionaire. It always involves exploitation and cheating, including in the very examples named by Graham.

Airbnb got rich by creating a housing crises all over the world and skirting hotel laws. The factories making Apple products are so bad they installed nets to catch people trying to commit suicide by jumping from windows. Facebook... do we even need to talk about that one?

I'm not sure if it's malicious manipulation or wilful self-deception, not being able to come to terms with the consequences of his actions. Either way, it's a bad look and he'd be well-advised to reflect on his actions and statements some more instead of giving grand speeches trying to impart his supposed wisdom.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#39

Post by strtok »

And yet, the vast majority of startups fail. This essay about exponential growth is clearly not the whole story.

How does your startup avoid failing? By skirting local laws? Exploiting employees? Destroying the environment? Replacing jobs in a way that makes the standard of living better for the few but worse for the many? Making weapons or systems that coordinate weapons? Submitting to and therefore tacitly supporting oppressive governments?

Sure, there are examples of startups that don’t do these things. But looking at billionaire-class startups (there’s not that many of those to analyze!), there are far more of them in the other category.

Re: How to earn a billion dollars

#40

Post by sethammons »

This post hand waves away the inflection point(s) of maintaining high growth rates as you grow. He hints at it saying year 4 growth is harder, but it is _vastly_ harder.

Companies focus of the Rule of 40 and struggle to keep above it. And this struggle is where many in management lose their way.

Enshitification begins. The margins get harder. More corners cut. Employees get treated less well, customers get treated less well.

Instead of telling us "it is just exponential growth bro," do case studies on billionaires and their dealings. In the US, you have billionaire business leaders who have full time employees who require government assistance every month.

The couple of billionaires and near-billionaires I have worked with (and helped build their companies) have not been bad people. But working at their companies pre and post IPO is way different. Less perks, more pressure. If the company culture isn't solid, it becomes bad fast.

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