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Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

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Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a parallel universe where we have Biden (or Democratic Party) administration, how different do you think the regulations / approach would be for this fast moving and unpredictable technology?

It doesn’t really matter what party does it The ideal case is a statutory agency with regulatory authority that sets very clear standards for what model capabilities can and cannot release. Those are set ahead of time and well known by frontier model providers. Most normal regulations are managed through the administrative procedures act process. That’s a legal requirement that involves deliberation and public commen…

I wholeheartedly agree with what you’re saying in general. I do wonder though, given how rapid advancements in AI are occurring, if even an agency with statutory authority would be able to establish a predictable regulatory environment, let alone do so while maintaining a lengthy public comment period and a whole of government approach. There are obvious flaws with the current administration’s approach to, well, almost everything. But I’m not sure if this is even a tractable problem with the governance structures we have been employing over the last 50 years.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#472
post #2

Given Amazon's fairly large equity stake in Anthropic, I really don't get their motivation. Anyone care to speculate?

In business, nothing's off limit to destroy others. You can be better, or you can report them for any "illegal" stuff.

[deleted]

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#473
I am a die hard fan of GPT and codex, I have been working on a very complex system, it was taking codex/gpt5.5 xhigh weeks to actually properly get it working, it kept making massive mistakes, it never followed the architecture and desing, it designed thin layers, inline LLM prompts even though our docs explicitly told it to externalize it, it hardcoded formulas in line in ts files instead of yaml files, did not wire various components, and so on.

i generally dont use claude due to very bad early on experience with it (it did the famous rm rf ). I gave Fable a try on isolated worktree, and in 4 days it completed work that i was assuming would take me until mid july with codex/gpt5.5 xhigh + fast.

I wish / and hope Fable comes back, i wish i had it for two more weeks. its just on another level

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#474
post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would they have launched Fable on Bedrock if they knew they were going to be shutting it down a day later?

I'm just stating facts: - Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing and the possible consequences - Anthropic must raise cash, and there are only 2 ways: an IPO or follow-ons - If the IPO is blocked, existing investors will be able to increase their stake on Anthropic at a very attractive lower valuation - Amazon has 20% of Anthropic: so, they benefit from it

"Amazon's CEO knew what he was doing" is not a fact. That's speculation.

When it comes to highly technical, fast moving developments like frontier AI and blue team / red team perspectives, I could see any CEO getting out over their skis. Now mix in some incompetent Trump admin officials, including apparently Howard Lutnick. I am guessing many of these people don't understand the subject matter very well at all.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#475
From Axios report:

> But calls from Amazon — as well as at least five other companies to a variety of senior administration officials Thursday evening and Friday morning — led to the model being shut down by Friday night.

So apparently Ant made many enemies. Amazon is an investor but a company at this size may have many tribes too.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#478
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To give you further perspective, Amazon has a $50B stake in OpenAI and a $5B stake in Anthropic. If things were flipped, I highly doubt Amazon would be running straight to the feds.

Interesting point. Just a small correction, the Anthropic stake is higher. ($13B + another $20B option if they hit certain milestones, which I believe is almost guaranteed) So it's closer to $33B In any case, there is no reason for them to purposefully hurt Anthropic. I would say that this government "takedown" of Mythos is great free advertising. I mean, if you look at this, they said it's too risky to launch, we al…

There's even more to this - because among the possible outcomes is one where Fable is only made available to enterprises that have gone through Know Your Customer (KYC) processes, and perhaps only to verified users of those companies, and perhaps requiring biometrics and attribution so government can know who was using that account.

Now, say you don't want to sign a pre-committed enterprise contract with Anthropic. But oh, you already have such a contract with AWS, and they'll let you use any model you want, and they've implemented KYC and will graciously connect you with a solutions partner who can help you with the IAM systems integrations for key tracking and attribution.

Oh, and all these enterprise contracts will bill by token. We're not talking a small stake in a company selling subscriptions, we're talking immediate revenue at four-figure-per-user levels, and pushing more and more companies to see that as "just part of their AWS bill."

This is worth a significant amount of money to AWS. So the question is: does Hanlon's Razor apply when a $2.5 trillion company is putting its best minds into how to engineer strategic outcomes?

The regulatory capture angle here is, if anything, an implementation detail.

Re: Amazon CEO's talks with U.S. officials triggered crackdown on Anthropic models

#479

The simplest explanation is Anthropic hasn't paid the necessary ‘taxes’ to get the required blessings. SpaceX did the right thing: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-03/spacex-ip...

Please don't refer to bribes as taxes. Extremely, extremely counterproductive.

I assume the HN community is smart enough to pick up on “taxes” as meaning bribery, especially when they link an article explaining how SpaceX did that through an IPO mechanism that rewarded the current administration.
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