Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

12gramsofcarbon.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 518 posts

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#231

Post by sharperguy »

dxuh wrote: post #64
modeless wrote: post #22

> But this government [...] I'm hearing a lot of this kind of thing. "Oh if only it was a different government". I'm sorry, but when you cry out for government involvement, it's not always going to be coming from the government you personally wanted. This is the whole problem with government involvement! I don't think that message is getting through, but it's the real lesson that should be learned here.

I think it should be noted that the current government, which did this silly thing, belongs to a party that is pretty much advertising on wanting to be a smaller government that gets involved less. That is a large part of why people vote for them.

In a two party system, do you vote for the party that promises small government and never delivers, or the party that promises bigger government and does delive?

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#232

Post by tripledry »

echelon wrote: post #99
temporaryacc2 wrote: post #96

The excessive scepticism on Hacker News has poisoned any attempts at rational AI discourse. The American Government has weaponised state power in a clumsy, corrupt and punitive attack against Anthropic, in an escalating war over control of AI. Meanwhile, HN has anchored on "marketing hype" as the only possible explanation - all evidence is contorted to fit into this increasingly contrived explanation. Object level an…

Most of the people on HN thinking this stuff is garbage won't be working in tech in five years. There simply won't be jobs for them. The risk is that all of these very incredibly smart and disgruntled people decide to do something about it. Elite overproduction, but instead as a result of enormous shift in supply side economics.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#233

Post by thepasch »

girvo wrote: post #53
woggy wrote: post #24

Any reason to think that open models will not catch up, given enough time?

Chinese model companies are already beginning to close, instead of opening. The latest big Qwen models are not open, for example. And it doesn't look like they will be, either.

MiniMax and Moonshot both literally just released the weights for their latest flagship models, a few weeks after DeepSeek did the same. One lab a pattern does not make.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#234

Post by usef- »

latexr wrote: post #220
roryirvine wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not an AI booster, but in this case I'd say that pausing the rollout for mitigations (such as public education) to be put in place was the responsible course of action. With the benefit of hindsight, you can certainly argue that the pause wasn't long enough or that the mitigations weren't sufficient. But that wasn't a view held by many at the time - indeed, it was mocked as a marketing ploy (and still is; see gp'…

> pausing the rollout for mitigations What mitigations? Nothing they’ve done is relevant to the four points in the comment above. > such as public education Their “public education” is about as meaningful as alcohol warnings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xj4aRhHJOWU > With the benefit of hindsight No hindsight needed. These problems were obvious from the start. Not just to me but to many others. Clearly also to th…

> What mitigations?

They did try to place limits on their API, and tried to develop classifiers for AI-vs-non-AI text (which was abandoned in 2023, in a world of many models). A lot of their efforts in those days seemed to be to work with Universities to figure out what to do about all of this incoming tech. They weren't the first to develop a language model.

> when they talk about it being “too dangerous”, they’re usually talking about fantasy scenarios of the AI gaining sentience

They didn't talk about "it" (that model) in those terms, as mentioned above. Or the following few from what I can see. They seem pretty specific about each model's risks and publish what they can find in the model card. But yes, they have a fear of where things may be in the future if models keep progressing.

I don't personally think talk of it being "too dangerous" is good marketing if the goal is to get rich. It invites restrictions from governments and others. I don't know anyone that picked a model because it was apparently restricted: most of their funding comes from Companies that are generally risk-averse. Online AI hype seems to mostly come from the demos, not the doomerism.

I do think there's an uncomfortable trade-off involved in all of this, and some of it comes down to whether you think the tech will be developed regardless of your participation. I believe the people in labs like Anthropic are worried yet think they are better off steering it the right direction, so they push on.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#235

Post by ngruhn »

MachineBurning wrote: post #100
uludag wrote: post #21

> I actually have another draft post in the barrel about how I think we should see a resurgence of the ‘flash game’ renaissance because it has become so much easier to make fun little games with AI tooling. I have been lurking on the aigamedev subreddit to see exactly what sort of games people are coming up with and I can say I have been incredibly disappointing. I've been faithfully trying the games people post and…

Game design is hard. Back in the day I released 4 flash games. 2 completely tanked, 1 did ok, and one went quite well (hundreds of years total time spent in game). There's a lot to getting it right, and like all software, you have to built it for your target market. There's no easy AI solution to getting a fun and engaging core loop. Nor is there one for building the right level of complexity and balancing the learni…

I agree. I'm not a game dev. I had a game idea and vibe-coded it with Claude. I kinda got what I had in mind but the game is just not engaging. I don't even know what to prompt. I tried "how could the be made more engaging" but no good ideas are falling out. I just have a lack of intuition for this kind of development. And Claude doesn't help.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#238

Post by Havoc »

somesortofthing wrote: post #84

I've really come around to trusting OpenAI a lot more than Anthropic the past few months. Reading between the lines of his own output, Dario Amodei comes off as both a dogmatic believer in ASI as a perfect, infallible ruler for humanity and quite an extreme American nationalist. The company, likewise, looks to be in ideological lockstep. I could see them, say, allowing or consciously creating runaway ASI they believe…

>I've really come around to trusting OpenAI a lot more than Anthropic

Pretty wild statement given the "Pathological liar" chat around the OAI leader

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#239

Post by dxdm »

sharperguy wrote: post #231
dxuh wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it should be noted that the current government, which did this silly thing, belongs to a party that is pretty much advertising on wanting to be a smaller government that gets involved less. That is a large part of why people vote for them.

In a two party system, do you vote for the party that promises small government and never delivers, or the party that promises bigger government and does delive?

There's vastly more to politics than that. There's even more to "small" vs "big" government than that, or to who really promises and delivers what. This convenient reduction to handy little words obscures all that, to the point where it stops mapping to reality in a meaningful way. It's a fictional abstraction.

If anything, your question reduces to making one party sound incompetent or deceitful, I don't know if that's intended. (And considering that aspect of the party is another fun can full of real-life worms.)

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#240

Post by RealityVoid »

pembrook wrote: post #140
Aeolun wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty certain that most of my issues are with a specific kind of government, not with government in general. Government is fine if it’s done by people that aren’t in it only for themselves. Actually it is often still fine if it’s done by people only in it for themselves. It’s just that the people in it right now will burn the world down to enrich themselves.

> "Government is fine if it’s done by people that aren’t in it only for themselves." Academic studies consistently show that people attracted to a career in politics (regardless of affiliation) score higher on "Dark Triad" personality traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy). And even for the non-sociopaths, the problem with humans is instinctively we ARE only in it for ourselves and our family. Anyone…

I think it's reductionist to say politicians are psychopaths.and it's completely dependent on how you structure your society. And, regardless, social coordination is absolutely necessary and you won't be able to do it without the state.
Post reply on HN