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Open source AI must win

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Re: Open source AI must win

#283
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea. The far, FAR superior power efficiency means that even if you did harness every public GPU or GPU-like device on earth, you'd end up consu…

Efficiency difference between training on GPUs and TPUs is 2x at best. You can get very efficient with tensorcores, converging to TPU efficiency. In the end math is math, you can't make a multiplication more efficient than it already is on GPU.

The power-constrained part of compute is data movement, not the elementary arithmetic per se. Anyway, it's very possible to tweak the underlying design to increase throughput a lot for any given power budget at the cost of high latency. This seems especially useful for training workloads where we don't really care about latency as much.

Re: Open source AI must win

#284
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea. The far, FAR superior power efficiency means that even if you did harness every public GPU or GPU-like device on earth, you'd end up consu…

Efficiency difference between training on GPUs and TPUs is 2x at best. You can get very efficient with tensorcores, converging to TPU efficiency. In the end math is math, you can't make a multiplication more efficient than it already is on GPU.

I guess this was more related to syncing GPUs.

If you were to take 500 computers with older 1080 GPUs, you might have enough compute/ram equivalent to an H200 GPU for training such a model. Maybe take 10000.

But if those machines are spread over 10000 homes, wired with residential internet service, training a large model will not get anywhere.

You go from "data in the same HBM memory chip" at 4.8TB/s or "data in adjacent GPU" with NVlink at 1.2 TB/s down to 25 MBit/s upload speed. Accessing the next piece of data is going to be about a Million times slower. At the same time you will heat a thousand times more, for a Million times longer.

Re: Open source AI must win

#285
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I replied to a child comment - this is a nice idea that just isn't tenable in reality. AI hardware isn't just hilariously faster than consumer GPUs, it's also hilariously more power-efficient and has hilariously better connectivity. Every one of these dimensions kills the idea. The far, FAR superior power efficiency means that even if you did harness every public GPU or GPU-like device on earth, you'd end up consu…

What makes you think Deepseek or GLM won't catch up to Fable level? Why would there be a break in the trend now?

DeepSeek and GLM (plus Kimi) are at or above Sonnet level wrt. favorable workloads like coding. They're not close to Opus or the latest GPT yet, and Fable is even higher than that. Other workloads relying more on real-world knowledge have them even further behind, and this can't be mitigated without making the model itself bigger and harder to host locally.

Re: Open source AI must win

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Then perhaps it should also punch foaming at the mouth libertarians, too. A society that maximizes individual freedom with no guardrails also maximizes freedom for fraudsters, polluters, violent extremists, drunk drivers, kiddie-porn-producing social networking xAIs, and people who use power to dominate others. At that point, the liberty of the strongest starts eroding the liberty of everyone else. Funny how 'current…

Also:

rustcleaner> homosexual and transsexual topics

OK boomer.

Re: Open source AI must win

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think Deepseek or GLM won't catch up to Fable level? Why would there be a break in the trend now?

DeepSeek and GLM (plus Kimi) are at or above Sonnet level wrt. favorable workloads like coding. They're not close to Opus or the latest GPT yet, and Fable is even higher than that. Other workloads relying more on real-world knowledge have them even further behind, and this can't be mitigated without making the model itself bigger and harder to host locally.

I've found GLM to be comparable or better than Opus at writing and at a fraction of the cost.

Re: Open source AI must win

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

DeepSeek and GLM (plus Kimi) are at or above Sonnet level wrt. favorable workloads like coding. They're not close to Opus or the latest GPT yet, and Fable is even higher than that. Other workloads relying more on real-world knowledge have them even further behind, and this can't be mitigated without making the model itself bigger and harder to host locally.

I've found GLM to be comparable or better than Opus at writing and at a fraction of the cost.

Writing does not rely on real-world knowledge all that much, other than knowledge of language itself. Even tiny models can achieve that, it's even easier than coding.

Re: Open source AI must win

#289

I've been contemplating a decentralized model training system for some time using volunteer machines that we all contribute. But, it is astronomically difficult. The communication speeds are untenable. And, there is the issue of data poisoning from untrusted nodes. I've almost cracked that last issue with a self-healing checkpointed rollback system that doesn't have to throw out anything that follows the corrupt datu…

Don't know but could BOINC setup which has been around for ages and mature plus has some incentive mechanism (Gridcoin) be used for this?

Re: Open source AI must win

#290
My grim view is that it's just one incident away from some evil freaks to use ablated offline model for some nasty acts to have lawmakers lose their mind and try to regulate open source models and even consumer GPU. Think the latest 3d printers restriction.
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