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Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

theguardian.com

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Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#121

Post by horsawlarway »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #83
horsawlarway wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LFPs are cheap and safe, with very good cycle counts. Sodium seems to be actually hitting real commercial production volumes (ex - GM just announced a sodium ramp up days ago, CATL has been producing them for a while). I expect we'll see sodium mature a good bit over the next decade (right now - it's just not quite as good as LFP, but it has a lot of promise in temperature extremes and cheap input materials) So sure…

I suspect sodium is better than lithium today. The win is that sodium is much more forgiving of high temperatures so they can be run without cooling fans/pumps. Lithium battery installations are actually loud owing to all of their cooling infrastructure. No cooling means the sodium batteries are easier/cheaper to maintain (no mechanical failures). Maybe not as energy dense, but you could still come out ahead long ter…

Seems likely. But I can't buy sodium ion today like I can LFP.

The chemistry definitely seems to be better than LFP long term, but higher manufacturing costs and low scale means it's just not as available.

CATL is predicting that they'll hit price parity for sodium against LFP this year, commercial scaling still needs to happen, though.

Meanwhile, manufacturers can pick up prismatic LFP from all sorts of places, at great prices (ex - https://www.18650batterystore.com/collections/lifepo4-prisma...)

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#122

Post by harmmonica »

ssl-3 wrote: post #113
harmmonica wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That definitely sounds reasonable for balcony, but I was trying to ask if you were able to generate the lion's share of your usage from a DIY or plug and play system would the utilities be against that ? I would think so because that would eat into their profits. If enough people were knocking several cents per kWh off their bills, would they just end up charging more for the infrastructure to make up for the loss? I…

If demand upon infrastructure decreases, then the infrastructure itself can also decrease. We don't need to solve that problem in advance.

Hope this ends up being true, and that solving it in advance is not required because that would mean the utilities would not have pushed back. I just feel like they will unfortunately. But baby steps with the balcony seems like we're heading in the right direction. Just wish we'd move faster.

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#123

Post by Paradigma11 »

Retric wrote: post #12
SoftTalker wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storage is the issue. You still need to supply base load (well, all load) at night.

Not quite, current nighttime load is largely a function of cheaper nighttime rates. People don’t set their EV’s to charge from 11-5AM because that’s the only time their cars are plugged in. If rates crater at noon on Sunday, there’s many an EV happy to suck up power then. So yes batteries are going to continue to grow rapidly, but it’s a smaller role than it might seem.

Great, so now not only is power production nondeterministic, your cars tank also is. It was too expensive and the algorithm decided to wait charging, so no spontaneous road trip for you, sorry.

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#124

Post by epistasis »

SoftTalker wrote: post #4

This is more from a lot of coal power plants being converted to gas over the past 20 years than solar overtaking the outputs of those power plants. Coal output shrinking, solar output rising, the lines have crossed. Coal is unpopular in all but a few areas where coal mining is still a part of the local econonmy. I used to work near a coal plant and every day I'd go out to my car and it would have little black particl…

No, this is actually solar's output increasing.

Natural gas's share of electricity generation has been falling for five years straight:

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/gas-share-in-global...

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#125

Post by toast0 »

harmmonica wrote: post #57
trial3 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think it’s kind of the opposite: balcony solar is good for power companies in the same way that them asking you to turn off your lights is good for power companies: if each customer is using less overall power they can serve more customers with existing infra. that obviously depends on time of use and the sun etc, but balcony solar in the USA can’t come fast enough. my electricity in NYC is almost $.40/kWh, a limit…

That definitely sounds reasonable for balcony, but I was trying to ask if you were able to generate the lion's share of your usage from a DIY or plug and play system would the utilities be against that ? I would think so because that would eat into their profits. If enough people were knocking several cents per kWh off their bills, would they just end up charging more for the infrastructure to make up for the loss? I…

> If enough people were knocking several cents per kWh off their bills, would they just end up charging more for the infrastructure to make up for the loss?

Traditional residential electric utility billing puts a lot of emphasis on usage, but when there's a lot more residential solar, that ends up not reflecting the costs very well. I think, over time, you'll see things where you pay a distribution fee per kWh in either direction, and then also pay for energy input and get paid for energy output. You might also see a demand charge that scales with your connection size or your maximum load/generation. If you don't have local generation with export, everything kind of mushes into the usage charge, especially if it's tiered... but when you exporting with net metering, you pay the same bill for exporting 950kWh and importing 1000kWh as someone who imports 100kWh and exports 50kWh, but one customer is using the grid a lot more than the other.

You see something like that with California's NEM 3.0 tarrif setting export price to the 'avoided cost' instead of offsetting import one for one. Under NEM 3.0, the utility is disincentivizing using production credits as long term storage. They prefer you use or store your energy onsite; if you can export while costs are high, that's nice too.

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#126

Post by actionfromafar »

xnx wrote: post #23

+1 to the Guardian for mentioning their data source, but -1 for not linking to it. +2 for EMBER for having a data source AND being able to link to the parameters that show solar overtaking coal for the month in the US. https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...

Have EMBER been vetted by the Ministry of Truth?

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#127

Post by Paradigma11 »

ssl-3 wrote: post #113
harmmonica wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That definitely sounds reasonable for balcony, but I was trying to ask if you were able to generate the lion's share of your usage from a DIY or plug and play system would the utilities be against that ? I would think so because that would eat into their profits. If enough people were knocking several cents per kWh off their bills, would they just end up charging more for the infrastructure to make up for the loss? I…

If demand upon infrastructure decreases, then the infrastructure itself can also decrease. We don't need to solve that problem in advance.

But then you have that week or 3 when you need all the infrastructure.`

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#129

Post by notahacker »

Paradigma11 wrote: post #123
Retric wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not quite, current nighttime load is largely a function of cheaper nighttime rates. People don’t set their EV’s to charge from 11-5AM because that’s the only time their cars are plugged in. If rates crater at noon on Sunday, there’s many an EV happy to suck up power then. So yes batteries are going to continue to grow rapidly, but it’s a smaller role than it might seem.

Great, so now not only is power production nondeterministic, your cars tank also is. It was too expensive and the algorithm decided to wait charging, so no spontaneous road trip for you, sorry.

I mean, assuming you don't zero your charge out when returning home, you could just take a few minutes to use a rapid charger part way through the journey...

Re: Solar generates more energy in US than coal for first time

#130

Post by harmmonica »

locallost wrote: post #118
harmmonica wrote: post #22

Question for those in the know... See lots of press about balcony solar in Germany, and California recently introduced a bill to allow it (I'm guessing other states already allow it; not sure if the CA bill has a chance of becoming law). But how far are we from a more plug and play home solar system that becomes a primary energy source as opposed to a limited secondary source? And what are the issues with it actually…

It can't be more or much more than the 800W as currently done in Germany because it would not be safe with the way electricity is delivered to a home. The reason is: when you pull electricity from the grid, the fuse would blow if you tried to pull too much current (e.g. you connect four hair dryers on the same outlet). It blows to prevent the wiring in your home from overheating and catching on fire. With balcony sol…

This is very interesting and helpful info! I guess my fantasy is that a standard electrical panel would eventually have a literal plug on it where you could plug a larger system in, just as you would an outlet in the balcony situation, and then it would I think be, using your word, in "front" of the "fuse" (using quotes because I'm not sure I have the behind/in front of language correct, and when you use fuse here in the states it would be a breaker, I guess, not an actual fuse). This solution would of course have to mitigate things like fire risk, or blowing up the house or grid itself. I'm just hopeful it's coming because I think the install rate would go through the, pardon me, roof.
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