Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
normaltech.ai
Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
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Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#2[dead]
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#3I have found that the attention moves to thinking about the things I want done and planning, reading and iterating over the specs and other artefacts that will be part of running the agents. I still need to understand the code and iterate over it to get to a usable and maintainable point.
I find the problem is we are reaching the top of the slop curve. I will subside because it's impossible to actually do anything useful with all the output. There will just be a ton of half-finished and abandoned projects. Whatever gets into production will require more eyes on it.
I just think a lot of people are still stuck in the "holy f** I'm so productive" and working themselves into the ground being productive pumping out code. I think it's a phase that will pass.
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#4[flagged]
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#5I have found that the attention moves to thinking about the things I want done and planning, reading and iterating over the specs and other artefacts that will be part of running the agents. I still need to understand the code and iterate over it to get to a usable and maintainable point. I find the problem is we are reaching the top of the slop curve. I will subside because it's impossible to actually do anything us…
it sometimes goes like this:
vibecoding viberequirements, vibeleadership vibemanagement, vibecustomers
as a matter of taste, you can substitute "slop" as a prefix
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#6It most certainly will replace software engineers. What's missing is, as the article suggests, the "Delivery" bit. But that's not the realm of software engineers, that's the realm of DevOps/SRE/Cloud engineers.
I work as a cloud engineer and have been contacted by multiple non-engineering friends who have now been able to create their pet projects from scratch in different languages and have it running locally, as webapps and native apps. So what they are missing is a platform to easily deploy and maintain their projects, much like a "normal" developer would. Right now it's quite tedious to set up this scaffolding, but it's absolutely possible with AGENTS.md, skills and rigid hollistic tests. Once done, non-technical people can continue developing independently without hiring any software engineers by simply telling claude/codex what they want. Claude/codex will then be able to make judgement calls based on the preset architecture, which will guide the non-technical user.
So in my anecdotal case, AI has already replaced several software engineers. Once scaffolding like this is productized, I suspect that greenfield projects can be managed entirely from a product standpoint using agentic coders + platform engineering. And that is today. Imagine in 5 years.
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#7Not buying it. The idea that deciding and delivering are things only humans can do with their intelligence seems faulty.
As it stands AIs today are not always great at making decisions (but they're getting much better), and orgs of today still trust people and hold people to account, rather than their AI systems.
Neither of these are strong moats. It's a moat only while AI systems have some limitations vs an expert human, and corporate processes are still extremely human-centric.
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#8Misleading
> Among the 270 jobs in the 1950 U.S. census, only one job was automated away — elevator operator. But many others were rendered obsolete by new technology, like the job of telegraph operator.
In that same time farm jobs went from 15% of the workforce to 2%.
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#9I have found that the attention moves to thinking about the things I want done and planning, reading and iterating over the specs and other artefacts that will be part of running the agents. I still need to understand the code and iterate over it to get to a usable and maintainable point. I find the problem is we are reaching the top of the slop curve. I will subside because it's impossible to actually do anything us…
it sometimes goes like this: vibecoding viberequirements, vibeleadership vibemanagement, vibecustomers as a matter of taste, you can substitute "slop" as a prefix
I think we as a professional class have gotten a bit overwhelmed with the magic slot machine. 2 in the morning let me just do one more pull on the slop machine. I WILL win this time.
It's a phase. The problem is the managerial class sees it as a magic black box and don't understand it's limitations. Calling it AI does not help either. It's the "rockstar developer" illness but on crack.
Re: Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't
#10It most certainly will replace software engineers. What's missing is, as the article suggests, the "Delivery" bit. But that's not the realm of software engineers, that's the realm of DevOps/SRE/Cloud engineers. I work as a cloud engineer and have been contacted by multiple non-engineering friends who have now been able to create their pet projects from scratch in different languages and have it running locally, as we…
> It most certainly will replace software engineers.
I would say it will most certainly replace software developers. There is a subtle difference between these terms.