Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

matteast.io

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 219 posts

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#121

Post by mlyle »

themgt wrote: post #86

It's funny it concludes "A line is not a law" while the entire page is just lines and charts. If you didn't know anything going in, SpaceX might as well be a company selling toilet paper for all you learned. I've got no idea what a share of SpaceX is worth today or 14 years from now, but fully reusable rockets are going to be one of the most important engineering achievements in human history, and SpaceX appears far…

I am upset that I am forced to either rebalance out of NASDAQ and incur significant tax consequences, or bet that SpaceX is about to become nearly 10 percent of GDP and keep exceptional margins while doing it.

I would not voluntarily take that bet, but we have regulatory and financial engineering nearly forcing me to do so.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#122

Post by ai-x »

iterance wrote: post #104
themgt wrote: post #86

It's funny it concludes "A line is not a law" while the entire page is just lines and charts. If you didn't know anything going in, SpaceX might as well be a company selling toilet paper for all you learned. I've got no idea what a share of SpaceX is worth today or 14 years from now, but fully reusable rockets are going to be one of the most important engineering achievements in human history, and SpaceX appears far…

All things equal I would agree with you. However, all things are not equal. SpaceX's target 2040 revenue of $4.3T. Let us assume that the US GDP grows at 3% p/a; in 2040 we may project a GDP of around $50T. Naturally, SpaceX would pushing 10% of the total US GDP. Such a change is possible. It is not out of the question. Companies can and do reach that size, though obviously for mathematical reasons only a small numbe…

Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint)

GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3%

Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#123

Post by testing22321 »

mlyle wrote: post #121
themgt wrote: post #86

It's funny it concludes "A line is not a law" while the entire page is just lines and charts. If you didn't know anything going in, SpaceX might as well be a company selling toilet paper for all you learned. I've got no idea what a share of SpaceX is worth today or 14 years from now, but fully reusable rockets are going to be one of the most important engineering achievements in human history, and SpaceX appears far…

I am upset that I am forced to either rebalance out of NASDAQ and incur significant tax consequences, or bet that SpaceX is about to become nearly 10 percent of GDP and keep exceptional margins while doing it. I would not voluntarily take that bet, but we have regulatory and financial engineering nearly forcing me to do so.

So you’re upset at the broader system that has allowed that change.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#124

Post by mlyle »

ai-x wrote: post #122
iterance wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All things equal I would agree with you. However, all things are not equal. SpaceX's target 2040 revenue of $4.3T. Let us assume that the US GDP grows at 3% p/a; in 2040 we may project a GDP of around $50T. Naturally, SpaceX would pushing 10% of the total US GDP. Such a change is possible. It is not out of the question. Companies can and do reach that size, though obviously for mathematical reasons only a small numbe…

Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint) GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3% Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?

Outgrowing GDP for awhile— especially from a smaller base— is certainly possible. It is much less likely to do it from a long time from already large revenue.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#125

Post by mlyle »

testing22321 wrote: post #123
mlyle wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am upset that I am forced to either rebalance out of NASDAQ and incur significant tax consequences, or bet that SpaceX is about to become nearly 10 percent of GDP and keep exceptional margins while doing it. I would not voluntarily take that bet, but we have regulatory and financial engineering nearly forcing me to do so.

So you’re upset at the broader system that has allowed that change.

I am upset that it is not a great bet and that retail investors and pensions are being forced to take it. Let’s not pretend that this is not regulatory capture and financial engineering by techbros.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#126

Post by Veserv »

sleepyguy wrote: post #50

The US consumer cellular subscription service is around 185 billion a year and if you add business/enterprise it is around 225 billion a year. If they were able (highly unlikely) to capture that market in the US alone through Satellite Cellular service, it would be huge revenue stream. Setting up data centers in orbit (easier said than done) would be another huge revenue stream. Setting up facilities to beam down ene…

Okay, so in 14 years they replace all cell phone service in the US achieving 6% of the revenue goal. Just have to find another 15 “all cell phone service in US” and do it all in 14 years and we are golden.

Just add a whole Apple worth of revenue yearly and they can just barely make it.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#127

Post by root_axis »

conductr wrote: post #110

It's insane to me that regulators are just letting the forced bid hack unfold with their heads in the sand as if they are unaware of what's happening or the press it's receiving. Sometimes there are clever ways to hack the system and the regulators can react and blame poor hindsight, that's not the case here.

Not that surprising. Reining in regulators is one of the main pillars of the party in power.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#128

Post by testing22321 »

mlyle wrote: post #125
testing22321 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’re upset at the broader system that has allowed that change.

I am upset that it is not a great bet and that retail investors and pensions are being forced to take it. Let’s not pretend that this is not regulatory capture and financial engineering by techbros.

I’m not pretending anything.

You are upset the system is weak and can be captured/manipulated by the rich.

It is always good to accurately identify what you are upset at so you know where to direct your energy.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#129

Post by mlyle »

testing22321 wrote: post #128
mlyle wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am upset that it is not a great bet and that retail investors and pensions are being forced to take it. Let’s not pretend that this is not regulatory capture and financial engineering by techbros.

I’m not pretending anything. You are upset the system is weak and can be captured/manipulated by the rich. It is always good to accurately identify what you are upset at so you know where to direct your energy.

Plenty of places to direct it. I can be upset both at those cheating -and- the referees.

If SpaceX is such a great business, it should be able to win legitimately.

Re: Why SpaceX 2040 Revenue FCST $4.3T in highly unlikely

#130

Post by MikeNotThePope »

SXX wrote: post #2

You never know what inflation gonna be in futute. In some countries that turned into autocracies with strong and long standing leaders who love traditional values and religion inflation can easily be 30-70% a year. Then not only 4.3T reachable, but even 43T.

4.3T could be the cost of a dozen of eggs by 2040.
Post reply on HN