Rich Sutton on AI creativity and discovery

The most successful applications like coding are not the result of pure LLM/generative modeling. They come from closing the loop with an agentic harness. The generate-test-selectively refine loop is the core modality of scientific work. An LLM + RL with Verifiable Rewards + feedback from compiler/terminal runs mimics this process to a great extend.

This is Fisher/Box feedback loop (https://www-sop.inria.fr/members/Ian.Jermyn/philosophy/writi...) implemented on a modern computational system. LLM is just a component. I wish Sutton had commented on this fuller picture of what we have now instead of commenting just on the LLM/Backprop side of things. I am honestly curious of whether such a loop can at least partially automate discovery.

There are more elements to discovery though. It is still not clear where the initial working model/hypothesis comes from or how the updates are selected (unless it is just parameter induction). I recently read about Hanson's Patterns of Discovery which aims in that direction. I have still not read it, but I am curious if it has any mechanistic clues.

The world will not be satisfied until we have read, and discussed every half-famous person’s opinion on AI.

Still about ten million discussions to go.

I understand the skepticism. I am worried about the implications of AI as well. The deeper issue at stake is that the depth of scientific knowledge has been increasing for a very long time. Now you get to have a PhD in esoteric subproblems and that slows down research especially if the discoveries require depth in multiple subdomains. Socially and economically training people in every combinatorial combination of subfields at the required depth may not be possible. I am especially interested in two problems to be resolved and do not care if an AI scientist performed the discovery. It will be humbling, but totally worth it:

- Fusion (a clean sustainable form): Without this I think we are heading in a very wrong direction, whether it is conflict or climate change does not matter. Everyone is aware of this and instinctively afraid of the implied loss of quality+quantity of life.

- Cure for Cancer: It is a world wonder even in Civ. I and for good reason. As a father of a teenager, every time I hear a story of someone losing a parent/child I cringe. We have to accept this as a reality of life until a proper/generic cure is found that eliminates the most common offenders.

I am skeptical that we will have AGI anytime soon and I think the social aspects will help balance the technical developments even it becomes a reality (Three laws, A Butlerian uprising, you name it).

Chess bots can beat grandmasters, but I have a friend who takes his son to tournaments. Humans are still playing chess, kids in the same tournament with grand masters. We have to have faith in the humanity, or all else will not matter.

And I will definitely keep playing Factorio even if AGI comes to pass ;-)

I think that creativity / intelligence / humour is indissociable from "making errors".

A joke is just an "error" - your brain predicted something, and the butt of the joke goes in another direction, and it's the mismatch that makes it funny.

The same goes with creativity, and intelligence.

The problem is that, by design, while trying to make machines "reliable", we make it impossible for them to be intelligent and creative