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CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

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Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CEOs do get there with lots of politics in almost all cases. It’s all about who’s ass you kiss and who’s ass you don’t and if you’re lucky with timing things might just fall into place. I think it’s exceedingly rare that a CEO is actually competent at their job. In most cases it’s the labor class propping the company up, and in some cases the workers are doing so against the wishes of the CEO. Not that executives wan…

I’ve worked with CEOs in multiple large companies. I wouldn’t wish that job on my worst enemy. Nonetheless, someone needs to do that job and the intersection of difficulty and masochism is beyond what most people can do or endure. Many people try and fail. Their job, at the end of the day, is to eat an endless stream of shit sandwiches with a smile and a plan. Much of the “competency” of a CEO in practice is to be ab…

> Much of the “competency” of a CEO in practice is to be able to accept the relentless drama and abuse without turning into an emotional wreck.

So it self selects for sociopaths. Good to know

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People think otherwise with AI partly because Anthropic kept telling us that they didn't have to write code or review code any more for most of their work. Even if that were 100% true, it only collapses the coding effort to near zero. Anyone who's built and shipped a real product should know that coding is maybe 50% of the work, and on a mature product it can be much less.

even boris says they need people with judgment to manage the agents i dont write code by hand anymore but shipping something people want is as hard (or maybe harder?) as its ever been

I work on a toy project that has exactly one user (me). On its face it's fairly simple. It's a portal to my media server because I didn't like how Plex worked with regards to searching and filtering. I can look for movies or series by director, studio, publisher, etc. I can rate things, I can find highly rated things. It's great, and instead of bugging plex support to add new features, I just tell Deepseek to do it. I started it before LLms were prevalent and now that I have open code I've had Deepseek write and rewrite most of my code and implement new features.

But even with this toy project, and the target market being someone I should know very well (me), I often struggle to figure out what I want the app to do. When I go through brainstorming or grilling sessions it'll often ask me a question about how the product ought to work and I'm just like ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ give me suggestions and I'll let you know.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumption by the top 10% of earners: https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-economy-strength-ri... As for services increasingly unaffordable by the workers providing them, that's Baumol's cost disease ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect ) I don't have any sources regarding someone preferring humans for certain services over robots, just intuition there, and the fact that consuming human labor and time i…

> but it does demonstrate that a largely bifurcated consumption based economy can exist and can be mildly stable This is not the case. These countries don’t operate/exist in isolation. They are part of global economy. But if this tech has a global scale effect, then the dots are not really connecting. You’re also forgetting the “revolt” factor.

The revolt factor is accounted for by ways of mass surveillance, and imprisonment for whatever gets labeled as domestic terrorism, like say, protesting data centers and "anti-tech sentiment" as a recent example.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#234

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> Conceiving them is fun. Delivering them is painful. Raising them, is a lifetime of work. Then there's the technical debt! Shipping is frankly the easy part . It's the operating overhead that often breaks you. I liken it to free puppies.

This is true. I have always prided myself on writing concise, high-Quality code, because it tends to be quite debt-free. So far, LLMs seem to deliver code with "Louie Da Loan Shark"-levels of tech debt.

> So far, LLMs seem to deliver code with "Louie Da Loan Shark"-levels of tech debt.

Maybe a couple of years ago, but these days, Opus 4.8 is frankly writing better software than what I've seen over the previous decades in non-tech enterprise. These previous two months, we've replaced so much technical debt we've been dragging along for the previous 5 years as our team went from 25 to 3 people.

This is in non-tech enterprise in Denmark and AI had absolutely no impact on us going from 25 to 3. That was all Putin and bad business decisions on the c-levels. Like keeping flexible loans to fund projects on the books when the interests rates were 0.01% because they might go to 0.001%. Anyway, I'm getting to the point where the AI does 100% of the work, but only if it's piloted by people who know what security, resource consumption and compliance is. The code itself is excellent though.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#235
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see how that helps, unless you actually mean open source, rather than open weights like most people do. Without everything that goes into the model, including training data, these things are opaque.

Actual open source is hard without a big war chest that allows you to flagrantly steal the training data.

The raw training data is so large that very few parties could host it for free even if there weren't copyright barriers.

But I think you could have a full open source training software pipeline that's set up to work with Wikipedia, Common Crawl, Books3, Library Genesis, Anna's Archive, and whatever other useful data sets people can name. There would just be a step where you have to provide your own copy of Library Genesis (or whatever subset of it you have managed to obtain).

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#236

There are a lot of bad CEOs, though. It's a lot like a politician -- it's quite difficult to become a CEO, and the skills to make it to that position don't always intersect nicely with the skills necessary to actually do the job well.

CEOs do get there with lots of politics in almost all cases. It’s all about who’s ass you kiss and who’s ass you don’t and if you’re lucky with timing things might just fall into place. I think it’s exceedingly rare that a CEO is actually competent at their job. In most cases it’s the labor class propping the company up, and in some cases the workers are doing so against the wishes of the CEO. Not that executives wan…

> CEOs do get there with lots of politics in almost all cases.

I know this can be hard for engineers to sometimes accept, but relationships (aka politics) are a key part of business. Rarely is one technical solution absolutely superior to another, making purchasing decisions come down to relationships.

Politics is also about compromise and managing a bunch of differing opinions/desires, which is one of the key skills of a CEO.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#237
I think it's more of a workforce reduction technique in some areas. how much is the issue, and lots of "it depends" but even at a higher up-front cost, LLMs have higher value and less liability. Instead of offshoring/outsourcing for example, you can have the same local devs that were leading/managing the offshore teams manage LLMs instead. Or if you have 10 expensive devs making 200k, just halving that is a million/year. even if that million is spent on tokens (even double or triple that) it might not be that much outside of what they would have been willing to pay for more devs anyways if there was the need, except now they have to deal with less people to manage overall. less lawyers, less hr, less lawsuits, less hiring and promption costs, less insurance premiums. Even if the quality of the work is a whole lot less, they only care about a viable product being shipped, and how much the lower quality affects profit margins.

I'll say this, laws and regulation are sorely needed. all this hate against billionaires, ceos, ai-bros, whatever... might or might not be warranted, but it is fruitless. Redirect this energy to your law makers.

In China for example, they made it illegal to use AI for the sole purpose of replacing human workers. The CEOs aren't bad CEOs, they aren't great either, it depends on the outcome. There are scenarios where entire job roles can be replaced by LLMs, but for complex roles like developers, you always need some human devs still, but likewise, almost always less of them than before. However, although less devs might be needed to do the same work, in some cases LLMs open up possibilities that weren't there before, so more devs babysitting LLMs or working on designing/shipping more features is also a strong possibility.

I mean, companies aren't trying to simply save cost on employees, they also want to maximize profits. Less devs per feature isn't the same as less devs period.

Overall, I'll say that demand creates its own supply. The internet itself killed many job roles and reduced the number of people you needed for many others, but it's not like we have the huge unemployment many were afraid of decades ago, if anything it created lots of more jobs. LLMs simply can't do everything people can, so they're not a drop-in replacement, that alone should mean a lot in terms of supply/demand economics.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t you still need someone to make high level decisions?

No, look at functioning democracies. They don't need authoritarian rulers, only those that want to be authoritarians argue elsewise.

> They don't need authoritarian rulers

Yet they seem still inclined to elect them.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

even boris says they need people with judgment to manage the agents i dont write code by hand anymore but shipping something people want is as hard (or maybe harder?) as its ever been

I work on a toy project that has exactly one user (me). On its face it's fairly simple. It's a portal to my media server because I didn't like how Plex worked with regards to searching and filtering. I can look for movies or series by director, studio, publisher, etc. I can rate things, I can find highly rated things. It's great, and instead of bugging plex support to add new features, I just tell Deepseek to do it.…

Genuine creativity is something LLMs struggle with and it kind of makes sense given their design. If you have a complete plan for a feature or even just an idea what the feature should do, that is enough for an LLM. But asking it to think and come up with a new feature idea by itself will always yield mostly extereme basic things you've already thought of. That creativity of "what" to build so it serves a purpose is still very difficult imo and LLMs are not good at it.

Re: CEOs who think AI replaces their employees are just bad CEOs

#240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is post-ZIRP please :-) ?

Zero interest rate policy. When interest rates are Near zero you can spend money like it’s free. A lot of what we thought of as like normal engineering culture were the result of interest rates being zero.

Tah for that.
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