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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#121

Post by heathrow83829 »

gruez wrote: post #102
heathrow83829 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

be careful with "real" hourly earnings. if they're using the CPI then it can be very misleading. One need only compare nominal wages vs nominal rents per square foot for the last 50 years to see that actual wages have dropped by 30% and yet the "real" hourly average wage calculated via the CPI is flat, falsly implying that actual wages have not dropped.

> if they're using the CPI then it can be very misleading. One need only compare nominal wages vs nominal rents per square foot for the last 50 years to see that actual wages have dropped by 30% and yet the "real" hourly average wage calculated via the CPI is flat, falsly implying that actual wages have not dropped. Yes, if you get to pick prices of arbitrary items to compare against, it's easy to come to whatever co…

shelter isn't just a cherry picked item. It's by an far the largest spending category, that and healthcare. I couldn't care less about all the other categories, personally.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#124

Post by _aavaa_ »

sublinear wrote: post #118
atleastoptimal wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people keep saying that assuming that in 5-10 years AI won’t be as good as senior engineers

What makes you think that? AI isn't as good as any human in any field. Why would it be capable of replacing anyone at all in 10 years?

What are you talking about? AI is currently better at the things it can do than the average random person on the streets.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#125

Post by RigelKentaurus »

paulpauper wrote: post #53
RigelKentaurus wrote: post #39

The most glaring gap in this "analysis" is that it's too early to tell. I don't understand how people can be certain in both extreme viewpoints.

How much time has to pass before we can dismiss the widely cited predictions by the media (and also many popular bloggers and podcasters) that AI will lead to mass joblessness? Those people need to at the very least acknowledge that their forecasts are so far wrong.

Both sides should take a deep breath and stay away from predictions.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#126

Post by Qhemlomo »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

And now it becomes so good, that you want to have it. Which means companies have to deal with the budget increase which they will recupe.

How? By making a 5 person team a 4 person team + AI.

If i think about my co-workers (not excluding myself) from last 15 years, there was always someone you would accept just because it was better than not having that one person. If i can now replace them with more tokens/better models, man i wouldn't hesitate (of course i know what this means on a person to person level :/)

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#127

Post by txru »

bwestergard wrote: post #97
atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

The decline in junior hiring began before ChatGPT had wide adoption, so AI is not a likely cause. https://www.employamerica.org/labor-market-analysis/dont-bla... The New York Fed has also released some research suggesting remote work has been a major factor differentially affecting early career workers. https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote... "But then people who work in actual tech companies…

I have a suspicion that Twitter laying off so much of the software staff was very influential for people with hiring abilities. The company didn't crash, and they (relatively slowly) began shipping new features again. I think that coincided with the pandemic-era overhiring, and we've been working against that combo ever since.

Every now and then, I actively try to make an LLM replace my tasks, and fully do greenfield projects I would accept- I don't see it. It's very good, no doubt. But I have or have been given the project parameters, and just like with a junior, failures in communication inevitably lead to breakdowns in execution.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#128

Post by themafia »

BaconPackets wrote: post #3

I'll need to look at the underlying data, but it seems that the job "classification/category" should be more important than the raw number. A boost in lower paid/service industry jobs does not mean that there wasn't a loss in a category where AI can be more easily dropped into existing businesses. Data : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

AI can't flip burgers?

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#129

Post by Qhemlomo »

Btw. we haven't yet builed the whole Agentic AI layer which is coming and companies are working on.

A lot of people and companies working left and right building things which are obvious that they are coming.

We do not know yet how that impacts even more people.

And AI already removed certain jobs.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#130

Post by kulshan »

Pretty shallow analysis. Doesn't account or what sectors the new jobs are occurring or account for the extended length of unemployment many are experiencing or underemployment. If only he had asked chat GPT, it would have provided more context and nuance than a single chart.
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