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Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

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11–20 of 108 posts

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#11
The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA.

It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#12
post #5
post #3

We miss you, British friends. Come back home! In related news: > A British poll shows that a new Brexit referendum would reverse the vote that led to Britain’s departure from the European Union a decade ago. Fifty-two per cent of Britons think the UK should rejoin the EU, according to an Ipsos survey of 1,137 British adults conducted between May 14 and May 20. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/new-referendum-…

If there were another vote, the media circus, and manipulation via social media would make sure we stay out.

I'm not as sure as you about the result, but I do agree that the campaigning would be absolutely awful to go through, and would reopen a lot of really deep wounds on all sides. It's all very well saying you'd like to rejoin when someone asks you on the street, but an entirely different thing if there was a months-long campaign to have to get through.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#13
It's almost like the academics who said that free-trade and globalization were net benefits to the economy were right, and then reversing globalization and shutting borders simply reverses those gains.

The interesting part is that while the benefits of globalization were not evenly distributed (part of the reason for the populist backlash against it), reversing it does not seem to benefit the people who were harmed by it. Maybe somebody who actually lives there can correct me, but the working class has seemingly not been lifted back into the middle class just because borders were closed. The factories have not come back. Instead it seems like capital owners benefitted most handsomely from globalization, and then de-globalization just entrenches their gains. And in terms of material gains and consumption, people just do without and all end up poorer.

Important lessons for America, which is about to embark on its own de-globalization adventure.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#14

It's almost like the academics who said that free-trade and globalization were net benefits to the economy were right , and then reversing globalization and shutting borders simply reverses those gains. The interesting part is that while the benefits of globalization were not evenly distributed (part of the reason for the populist backlash against it), reversing it does not seem to benefit the people who were harmed…

I like the first part of your username. Not so much the latter.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#15
post #5
post #3

We miss you, British friends. Come back home! In related news: > A British poll shows that a new Brexit referendum would reverse the vote that led to Britain’s departure from the European Union a decade ago. Fifty-two per cent of Britons think the UK should rejoin the EU, according to an Ipsos survey of 1,137 British adults conducted between May 14 and May 20. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/new-referendum-…

If there were another vote, the media circus, and manipulation via social media would make sure we stay out.

Considering how the EU and the UK have evolved, I suspect that today staying out of the EU would get more votes than Brexit did back in 2016.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#16
post #2

Just when the UK thought they had done the biggest self own in history, 'Merica says hold muh beer.

I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. The US actually has enough weight as an economy to have some bargaining power at trade negotiations. Now, whether the negotiator is working in good faith or not is another matter, but if the US suddenly stopped doing business with an individual country, it would likely cause the other side at least some problems. The UK does not have the weight the US does, and sanction…

I think's actually worse than Brexit. The destruction of institutions and the industrial weaponization of partisanship has done significant damage. Add to that the tariff circus and the alienation of every single fucking foreign power with the lingering effect of demonstrating that long term trust is no longer possible.

We are on the cusp of a full fascist takeover and the only thing possibly preventing that is the incompetence and self-dealing at the top.

I expect to get downvoted by the partisans here, but I stand by my words and would love to be shown wrong with credible evidence, but that is extremely doubtful.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#17
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America can do anything the UK can do, but bigger and better!

Makes me think of Peter Tosh: "Anything you can do, I can do it better, I'm the toughest".

Anything you can do I can do better just makes me think of Annie Oakley https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO23WBji_Z0

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#18
post #3

We miss you, British friends. Come back home! In related news: > A British poll shows that a new Brexit referendum would reverse the vote that led to Britain’s departure from the European Union a decade ago. Fifty-two per cent of Britons think the UK should rejoin the EU, according to an Ipsos survey of 1,137 British adults conducted between May 14 and May 20. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/new-referendum-…

The EU is not exactly doing much better. None of them truly ever recovered from 2008 or 2020. It is either stagnation or managed decline.

Spain and Poland seem to be doing quite well?

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. The US actually has enough weight as an economy to have some bargaining power at trade negotiations. Now, whether the negotiator is working in good faith or not is another matter, but if the US suddenly stopped doing business with an individual country, it would likely cause the other side at least some problems. The UK does not have the weight the US does, and sanction…

> I still wouldn't put it at the level of Brexit. Perhaps not yet, but we have at minimum 2 and a half years of the Trump Family Circus to contend with, and they've gotten a lot destroyed in what time they've had so far. And, Trump isn't the real problem. Anti-intellectualism here has hit it's zenith. Fully a third of our country is so propagandized and media-illiterate that they can't really be said to share a reali…

Oh, they've got that there too. GB News, TikTok, all the rest.

Re: Brexit Ten Years On: The Economy

#20
post #11

The EU has mildly outperformed the UK in overall economic growth by perhaps 1 percentage point over the last 5-6 years, i.e. ~7% vs ~6%. While of course both massively underperformed the USA. It's hard to avoid concluding that the actual effects of Brexit have been smaller than this kind of analysis suggests, and while we squabble about such things our countries are missing opportunity after opportunity.

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