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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#91

Post by thewebguyd »

mfuzzey wrote: post #89
nawgz wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However it seems just like common sense that if an AI can do junior-engineer-level coding work, that a company has less reason to hire a junior engineer. I mean, if we want to not talk about economics that’s fine, but can the AI actually do junior work at the same price? What if we don’t look only at quarterly reports, and instead include the value of having people knowing about the business having to explain it to…

>I mean, if we want to not talk about economics that’s fine, but can the AI actually do junior work at the same price? Even if we assume it can then not hiring Juniors still doesn't make sense - where will seniors come from in the future?

That's a problem for the next CEO of course

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#92

Post by bwestergard »

1attice wrote: post #80

The expectation of linear presentation of change in a bistable system is gobsmacking here. If this kind of argument were generally valid, it would imply that: - all change neither accelerates nor decelerates, which is absurd, on the face of it; - the initial stages of a deep change are always surface-visible; for instance, cancers announce themselves when they begin to gestate, rather than when they metastasize - A f…

Not really a question of linear versus non-linear change when we see, in aggregates, almost no change at all.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#93

Post by thewillowcat »

5701652400 wrote: post #41
ex-aws-dude wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would you assume that’s from AI You talk to any SE and it’s obvious we’re not running out of work to do since these tools became available

1. C-level says so 2. on-the-ground people indeed much more productive but of course, it is not just AI. Software is consolidating and automating even without AI, that's the whole point of software.

C-level does not seem uniformly convinced, and they have a lot of reasons to tell that story, even if it isn't really true.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#94

Post by gruez »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

>But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that senior engineers can now write 3x as much code, etc.

Yup, that's reflected in the data as well, no need to invoke "vibes" or whatever.

https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20260516_EPC...

https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20260516_EPC...

The likely explanation is that there's job losses happening in some sectors, but it's made up for in other sectors.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#95

Post by scottious »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

the job description of a junior engineer can change. junior engineers can use AI to make themselves more productive too

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#97

Post by bwestergard »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

The decline in junior hiring began before ChatGPT had wide adoption, so AI is not a likely cause.

https://www.employamerica.org/labor-market-analysis/dont-bla...

The New York Fed has also released some research suggesting remote work has been a major factor differentially affecting early career workers.

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/remote...

"But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that senior engineers can now write 3x as much code, etc."

If you want an anecdote: the media company I work for just started hiring interns and juniors in software career tracks again after a lengthy hiatus.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#98

Post by atleastoptimal »

nawgz wrote: post #83
atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

> However it seems just like common sense that if an AI can do junior-engineer-level coding work, that a company has less reason to hire a junior engineer. I mean, if we want to not talk about economics that’s fine, but can the AI actually do junior work at the same price? What if we don’t look only at quarterly reports, and instead include the value of having people knowing about the business having to explain it to…

The point is not whether it’s a mistake to not hire juniors, but whether it’s actually factoring into the hiring/layoff decisions at tech companies. Many claims are being made that no companies are actually changing hiring/layoff decisions on account of AI, and are using it as a distraction to avoid admitting their mistakes over hiring. That may be true, but many managers and execs actually do seem to consider AI a sufficient replacement for much of their engineering team, and are stalling hiring/prompting layoffs because of it.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#99

Post by bwestergard »

throwaway27448 wrote: post #60
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2]. Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

It's quite frustrating that they track average rather than median wages. As wealth inequality increases, average will be less and less representative of worker health.

They do track median and 25th/75th percentiles.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#100

Post by wombatpm »

throwaway27448 wrote: post #60
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2]. Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

It's quite frustrating that they track average rather than median wages. As wealth inequality increases, average will be less and less representative of worker health.

Old joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar. On average everyone there is a millionaire
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