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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#51

Post by voidfunc »

dywilby wrote: post #29

Anecdotally, there's an AI job crisis for juniors right now

Yea, we're basically not hiring anyone that isn't a senior developer already. That's going to be a huge problem eventually but not my problem to deal with.

My best advice for folks that want to get into software now is be willing to do it cheap for awhile and then jump once you've developed some skills. If you were getting into this industry for the money you're properly fucked and I hope you didn't load up on debt. If you're passionate about building stuff there's still room but the path forward is a lot murkier.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#52

Post by 9rx »

handfuloflight wrote: post #24
9rx wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BLS doesn't look at job ads when compiling "job opening" data. Their method isn't perfect (nothing in life is), but far more comprehensive than you give it credit for.

So what do they look at?

The results of them actually talking to businesses and asking questions that are more than "did you have a job ad posted?" You are hardly the first person to imagine that job ads aren't representative of actual job opportunities. Obviously they are going to put in effort to avoid those weak signals.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#53

Post by paulpauper »

RigelKentaurus wrote: post #39

The most glaring gap in this "analysis" is that it's too early to tell. I don't understand how people can be certain in both extreme viewpoints.

How much time has to pass before we can dismiss the widely cited predictions by the media (and also many popular bloggers and podcasters) that AI will lead to mass joblessness? Those people need to at the very least acknowledge that their forecasts are so far wrong.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#54

Post by 5701652400 »

paulpauper wrote: post #35
abalashov wrote: post #16

I guess there are those who might say, "Well, hang on, give the crisis a minute to unspool..."

It's always 2-3 years away. 2027 was supposed to be the inflection point. That was 1-2 years ago.

same. I was expecting it to recover in 2025. but it only gets worse.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#55

Post by impure »

First of all the May jobs report was mostly in temporary workers possibly due to the World Cup. Second as already noted the jobs are mostly in healthcare. Third job openings does not equal employment. These numbers have been diverging for a while likely due to people holding multiple jobs. Also I believe the evidence suggests the job crisis is due to WFH and not AI https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48326721

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#57

Post by handfuloflight »

9rx wrote: post #52
handfuloflight wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do they look at?

The results of them actually talking to businesses and asking questions that are more than "did you have a job ad posted?" You are hardly the first person to imagine that job ads aren't representative of actual job opportunities. Obviously they are going to put in effort to avoid those weak signals.

How many businesses were surveyed?

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#59

Post by paulpauper »

bwestergard wrote: post #10
adamredwoods wrote: post #7

Bold claim to say "no signs" based on non-contextual numbers. I think I recall somewhere that most jobs added were in healthcare. >> The May jobs report reinforced this with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 172,000, confirming that there are no signs of workers being replaced by ChatGPT.

The shift toward healthcare employment is a very long running trend driven by the greying of the Baby Boom generation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000101

It's not just that. It's anyone who wants to live longer and look younger. Pretty much anyone with the income to afford it. As society becomes wealthier , it means more $ spend on elective procedures and healthcare overall. Wellness clinics are a huge deal now.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#60

Post by throwaway27448 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19
BaconPackets wrote: post #3

I'll need to look at the underlying data, but it seems that the job "classification/category" should be more important than the raw number. A boost in lower paid/service industry jobs does not mean that there wasn't a loss in a category where AI can be more easily dropped into existing businesses. Data : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2]. Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

It's quite frustrating that they track average rather than median wages. As wealth inequality increases, average will be less and less representative of worker health.
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