https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WPjJ
Wow, zooming out really puts the 2021-2022 hiring frenzy into perspective.
Where is the AI jobs crisis?
21–30 of 283 posts
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#22I wonder when we’ll reach diminishing returns on new AI models. Haven’t tried Mythos or Fable yet but it seems like Anthropic is already priming itself for this by calling for a “slowdown” of AI development.
At least in cybersecurity, we already have seen diminishing returns with newer models.
At this point the harness/applayer matters more, as different models perform better or worse on exploit classes depending on the prompt, tuning, and various other parameters.
Of course, by the time HN hyperfixates on a topic, it's already been executed on and HN is too late.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#23Bold claim to say "no signs" based on non-contextual numbers. I think I recall somewhere that most jobs added were in healthcare. >> The May jobs report reinforced this with nonfarm payrolls jumping by 172,000, confirming that there are no signs of workers being replaced by ChatGPT.
Well... if you think in terms of a society spending its people on doing various things, spending more people on healthcare could be a good thing. It means we're getting food grown and stuff made with fewer people, so we can spend more people on making sure that everybody lives, and lives healthier.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#24A "job opening" is not a job. It's an aspirational advertisement. Further, the graph shown is pretty noisy and I'm not sure the upward move which counters the downward trent is statistically significant.
BLS doesn't look at job ads when compiling "job opening" data. Their method isn't perfect (nothing in life is), but far more comprehensive than you give it credit for.
So what do they look at?
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#25https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WPjJ
Wow, zooming out really puts the 2021-2022 hiring frenzy into perspective.
Sort of, that it crosses so many lines makes it seem like it must be 6X, but it peaks at 230 based on a baseline of 100, so just 2.3X their baseline. Still a ton, but not as much as I thought at first glance.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
The shift toward healthcare employment is a very long running trend driven by the greying of the Baby Boom generation. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000101
Yeah I'm starting to think the BLS needs to do "Boomer aging adjustments" to jobs numbers, in a similar manner to how they do "seasonal farming adjustments". Until we get through the Boomer population bulge, healthcare is going to keep adding jobs for quite a while regardless of how the rest of the economy does, but that doesn't necessarily mean the overall labor market is healthy. If you leave out healthcare, 2025 h…
> the BLS needs to do "Boomer aging adjustments" to jobs numbers, in a similar manner to how they do "seasonal farming adjustments"
You’re comparing a low-frequency trend with a high-frequency cycle. The latter has lots of data to characterize it. The former may be secular or may be a slow cycle; nobody should be adjusting for it in the base data.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#27Maybe AI will finally be the tool that allows us to get rid of some of the people we have who do nothing more than push paper around. Maybe. But somehow I doubt it, at least not in a typical big corporate environment. And I have zero concern about us letting actual software devs go. Things will have to change pretty dramatically before we get that far.
AI will make those folks much more productive. They'll push a lot more paper around.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#28Maybe AI will finally be the tool that allows us to get rid of some of the people we have who do nothing more than push paper around. Maybe. But somehow I doubt it, at least not in a typical big corporate environment. And I have zero concern about us letting actual software devs go. Things will have to change pretty dramatically before we get that far.
You mean the middle management? I have been in environments where they were almost literally made up of pencil pushers. Wouldn't be too sad to see them go. Only half joking, but it is written in jest.
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#29Anecdotally, there's an AI job crisis for juniors right now
Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?
#30I run a job search site and I don't see a crisis in terms of job openings even for SWE - but there is very clear signal that AI is deeply getting embedded in every SWE job.
https://corvi.careers/blog/global_software-engineering_jobs_...